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The Lenders pushing this into administration or liquidation......
Would be the equivalent of turkeys voting for Christmas.
Where is the value to be had ? they would all be fighting over whats left of RMD (250m?)
Interserve's ability to win work in administration would be zero, especially from their main client.
The Lenders need a decent deal as much as Coltrane do.
I see one win / lose outcome, one win / win outcome and one lose / lose outcome
Win / lose : The current deal gets pushed through and Coltrane litigate
Win / Win : A slightly better deal is pushed through and Coltrane and the lenders take their medicine
Lose / Lose : Coltrane vote down the current deal and pre-pack admin
If I was the BoD, I would be talking to both sides and negotiating a middle ground - if they are not doing that, then they shouldn't be on the Board!
Bill,
You asked for a level to get back in.
In my view this share will go below 15p, whether that is today, tomorrow or next week - I cannot see why it wouldn't.
Anywhere below 15p would be a decent buy (in my view). 10p would be great.
As others have pointed out and in my previous posts - there are still three BIG risks here -
Pre- pack admin, Liquidation or De-listing.
If you don't want a risky share, look elsewhere.
I don't mind taking risks (if I can afford to lose) and in my judgement sense will prevail and a deal will be done. I am prepared to take a risk on that outcome.
Then I am prepared to take a bigger risk, that they will not de-list the company and in my view this is a bigger risk.
The point is, if you buy at 10p or 15p, you need to be prepared for the worst and judge that against the best upside, which I see a long way down the road at 30p unless the current deal is improved.
GL
I might just hold off until after the refinancing when there is little or no risk of prepack or liquidation. I am guaranteed 15.3p but just be a case of waiting to see it drop further after this, hence the board not buying.
"The Lenders pushing this into administration or liquidation......
Would be the equivalent of turkeys voting for Christmas.
Where is the value to be had ?"
That did not seem to deter Mouchel's lenders - the company was placed into administration and sold to a new company owned by the banks and directors within 24 hours of shareholders rejecting the deal offered.
As I see it the board have dug their heels in. They are not negotiating with Coltrane, and imo, there is not a cat in hell's chance of a better deal being offered. Coltrane may have consulted their solicitors, but I cannot see that they have a case. What law or stock market rule have the directors broken?
When a company has debts many times the size of its market cap value, the banks can call the shots. I appreciate that a board is there to represent it's shareholders, but a higher goal is to keep the company solvent. If they fail to do this then shareholders are wiped out anyway. I don't know how much leverage the banks used to force through these terms, but the BoD have put their own interests and that of the lenders first.
They are offering shareholders a deal that they themselves will take no part in. That should tell anyone whether this is a bad or good offer. They are also threatening to take the company private if enough shareholders do not subscribe to the deal that the directors have spurned. Really classy that, a board that clearly has the best interests of the shareholders in mind.
I didn't like to say it bill.
be careful.
there maybe money to be made with interserve,
there are large spread of companies that also exist.
perditions of 30p a month ago could well happen.
personally I would avoid.
my own belief is that interserve is going to be run for the survival of the firm at heart.
employees and shareholders and any anything else are other lower priorities.
there is good volatility there, there may even be good profit.
as you can see when there is a profit its take your money and run at the moment.
personally take you money and stick it in TSTR.
wait for the plant to come online.
sorry you were caught out at 70p when it dropped.
it may get back there someday.
just remember shareholders are the lowest priority I would think at this point.
Thank you for the kind words Pbody and yes I will have a look at the company you mentioned below. I got caught out at £2 actually not 70p but you live and you learn and can only go by what you are being told.
Unfortunately I invested in 2016 after being told EFW being exited with a £70m exceptional loss, but as we know today that is not the case as still this is sucking money out. If you remember last year they said the costs related to EFW now would neutral but they just took another 15m hit on it, and of course many million yet still to come. I wonder how they are getting away with all these lies and look forward to FCA holding them to account.
tbh your concerning yourself with subdivision within the firm.
thinking of profitability ,revenue and divys.
I would concern myself with the fact the shareholder comes last at the moment.
this is firm survival.
it honestly doesn't matter if all the value is wiped out IF the company carries on.
maybe some board members might loose a bit but the company survival comes first.
IF you take the "firm comes first approach" which I believe does apply.
Bill, the FCA will do diddly squat...Ringrose lied big time before getting out to Syrinix. It's been a tale of really poor programme management ( EfW). I wrote to Investor Relations several times urging them to do a rights issue ( when the SP was 120p). I told them not to leave it too long.
Frankly, Coltrane wanting rid of the BOD..I can see why!
My2penneth- they may well do sweet f*** all, but that’s the sort of capitalist society we live in. I do agree with your comment regards the equity raise but personally think it should have been done after the first EFW annnouncement. The fact that current management did call one at 1.20 as you suggested, I suspect some foul play here. It appears to me they were in cahoots with the lenders and this deal was already done back in spring last year, and then the BOD have spent the last year deliberately surpresssing the share price to the current levels.
There was an article yesterday where Glyn barker claims he’s lost a lot of money in IRV so shares the pain of shareholders, however it was biased as he didn’t mention how much him and others would get for getting the proposed the deal through which likely to be hundreds of thousands. They also claim it’s the only viable option.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/03/rescue-deal-interserves-viable-option/amp/
This is a re run of Mouchel and will have the same outcome. Shareholders rejecting an offer left them with nothing.
The Chairman has summed it up in the Telegraph article this morning. This is the only deal.
It may be the only deal, but it won't get through if Coltrane & Farringdon oppose it.
Rather than the BoD going around telling everyone its the only deal, they need to get on with talking to Coltrane & Farringdon & the Lenders (all inside the same room) and come up with a deal that will get through.
It's a bit like Teresa May " its the only deal available", oh until it's voted down.
A pre-pack Admin is Interserve's equivalent to a no deal Brexit. No one wants it, but its looking likely and will destroy Interserve.
Irresponsible if the BoD just sit back with their fingers crossed. Time to negotiate again, but this time not just with the Lenders!
.
The pre-pack admin had no impact on Mouchel. There is no equity value in this company. The lenders are offering something to save the costs of the admin. It won’t get any better. Coltrane are deluding themselves and other less informed shareholders.
Well said Fate they certainly need to refocus their efforts and in getting a deal through rather than just repeat this is the only deal avaible again and again like a nursery rhyme.
Those who have said a pre-pack will not do much damage here are totally wrong and need to do their reasearch, as even the lenders and BOD have stated this. It will damage the companies reputation, leaves joint venture partners with the option to acquire IRV’s stake at a bargain price, as well as some of the lenders having to pay certain clients who have bonding arrangements on their contracts should IRV fail? Now tell me there is no impact to the lenders here??
That said I don’t think the above will stop a pre-pack entirely, but certainly will be causing them grief? If they had nothing to be woirrried, the BOD would not continually pleading with shareholders to approve the deal. It would just be take it or leave in which we’ll go down the prepack route. No one wants a prepack but looking very likely, and the penny will drop by 6 months times but it will be too late.
Bill,
I totally agree with you about the effects of Administration. To suggest every Pre-pack administraion ends up like Mouchel is just simply flawed.
I see to other massive issues for Interserve - work winning for the Construction division will be even more difficult than it has been and I foresee a large outflow of their Employees, most through choice. I think administration will be the "last straw" for many.
The BoD appear to be gambling with a once great Business. How the founders of this company must be turning over in their graves........
OMG. You really can’t help some people. I know all about the “possible” effects of a pre-pack. They are the same effects that were analysed on Mouchel. The lenders are already being over generous to shareholders. Some of you want a free ride.
We are saved!
A worldwide expert on Pre-pack Administration has joined the forum.
Hold on though; lets put the corks back in the champagne, I have a few concerns...
The fact you know so much about administration is a concern in itself.
You appear to know very little about Interserve
You appear to be basing all of your "help" on your experience with Mouchel
Your statements "The lenders are already being over generous to shareholders
. Some of you want a free ride." are ill informed.
Existing shareholders will make their own decisions on how to vote (on the current deal or a different deal) for their own reasons and should not be pressured one way or another.
The major shareholders Coltrane & Farringdon will most likely be determining factor on which way the vote goes, hence the BoD need to start negotiating with them.
Can anyone explain the share price.
Option 1. The lenders deal is approved. Debt gets written off and lenders own 95%. Shares will continue to trade for a while but most likely company gets de-listed. Remaining shareholders cannot sell shares and further are at the mercy of the lenders who can bill it for all sorts of management costs
Option 2. Deal not approved. Outcome pre-pack. Shares worth zero and company de-lists.
Option 2. What is option 3 then as I can't see why share price should be 16p? Suggests shares trading at a premium as market thinks Coltrane will force a higher offer?
CC - I think you have answered your own question there.
The market obviously thinks that Coltrane are going to come up with something more favourable to shareholders.
Also there doesn't appear to be a major sell off- as the biggest holders want to keep their positions in order to participate in the forthcoming vote.
CC
Your option 1 - current deal approved the Share price will be 15.3p or thereabouts post deal. So that stacks with the current price. But as you rightly state they could de-list if there is not 25% free float and we know the Lenders will push to de-list. So yes 15.3p is a gamble, but if they didn't de-list there could be an upside. But this probably is the wrong time to buy in at 15.3p.
Your option 2 - agree - administration -shares worth zero.
Option 3 - will they work out a 7.5% ex, shareholder compromise deal? This in my view will come down to the amount of shares the Lenders hold and if they believe they will lose the vote - they will try and do one last deal - but this is a total gamble at present - but good upside if it happens.
I think the lenders are keeping the share price elevated whilst increasing their share holdings.
For anyone else to buy above 15.3p they are either day trading trying to hit the peeks and troughs or they haven't understood the situation imo.
CC
Option 1 deal gets through but Lenders de-list.
To de-list the company would the Lenders not have to get the majority of remaining shareholders to vote in favour for it and to do this, would they not need to offer them a premium on the share price?
Well Coltrane have put forward their plan to Interserve. Their proposal would leave the lenders with 55% ownership. It must be the season for crackpot plans, there is very little chance that the lenders will go for that.
No chance whatsoever the Lenders would accept anything like that.
But if Farringdon are more realistic and proposed 92.5% for the Lenders, then that could get through as if you add Farringdon and the Lenders share% together, I now understand they would have more than Coltrane.
Also PI's should get behind a 7.5% deal.
I hold my Interserve shares in an ISA and I can see better reinvestment options for the money held in a tax free environment than taking up the offer. Coltrane I assume will want more money from the shareholders as they are offering the lenders significantly less of the business. So as the Dragon's say, I'm Out.
*there is very little chance that the lenders will go for that. Then again Coltrane have decided that the lenders don't matter "The directors, in their capacity as fiduciaries to the company, should halt cooperation with lenders on implementation of their plan." I mean seriously what sort of negotiation is that supposed to be. When the company needs more money down the line, who's door would they be knocking on?