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As posted before some two weeks ago,anyone selling now for a short term profit is crazy....If Hindle & Co had not been ousted by our erstwhile leader we would still be drilling for water in the Lough Neigh basin and upsetting the neighbours at Woodbridge. Yes,we do need the Website to be improved and made more professional ( that is clearly in hand) but of all the AIM stocks available with a U.K. based project,this has to be the most exciting and productive.
We have all sorts of potential add ons....extra chambers,LNG terminal at Ballylumford and joint interest with other N.I. operators such as Celtic.
Or do we ??? ..The Big Boys are waiting and most of you will know that ...they will pounce as soon as current hurdles are achieved..watch for a speedy rise on Monday !! Excellent post by the way by Olderandwiser..aren't we all !!
I see Islandmagee as a strategic fit in Ireland's need for energy security. This is especially the case with the closure of the Kinsale gas storage facility, and Rough in the UKNS, there is a clear need for long-term (10 years and up) forward planning to replace these facilities that were supposed to offer greater flexibility and security of energy supplies. So I see very little political resistance to this project, in fact the reverse, a positive wish to endorse it. I also don't see any environmental lobbies shouting out against it going ahead. Licences and permits are in place. All good. Even Brexit can't damage the project as it already pre-qualifies for a UK government guarantee on the credit financing side.
Risks are:
That the FEED study runs into unexpected technical complications requiring more work to be done and missing the December deadline for submission to the EU relevant body.
A Brexit hard exit leads to uncertainty amongst potential buyers of the project until grants, loan guarantees, access to UK bank credit etc, are resolved.
Plans go ahead for a new oil terminal at Cork to hold US frakked oil go ahead, in a size that rivals Islandmagee's storage potential.
Any other risks?
Otherwise, it's a solid long term buy and hold into 2019, and thereafter, although I would reckon that the sp will spike into a "construction green light" decision and then cool off for quite some time until first gas is stored. But by then Infa will probably be long gone as an independent entity.
'4.4 The Minister for Energy and Industry (Richard Harrington) welcomes the inclusion of 23 PCIs involving the UK. These, he says, comprise 21 electricity and gas interconnection and storage projects and two carbon dioxide cross-border network projects. Previously, electricity and gas PCIs based in the UK have benefited significantly, he says, from CEF grant funding.
4.5 On Brexit, the Minister observes that the UK and EU have agreed that the UK will continue to participate in EU programmes financed by the current budget (2014–20), until their closure. The eligibility of UK organisations to apply to participate in EU programmes and receive EU funding will be unaffected by the UK’s withdrawal from the EU for the entire lifetime of such projects. This would apply to projects granted PCI status and those allocated CEF grants.'...
4.19 For gas, infrastructure is generally in good shape and resilient to a number of disruption scenarios. There are, however, pockets where significant action is still needed. These are primarily in the Eastern Baltic Sea area, the Central and South-Eastern part of Europe and in the Iberian Peninsula (links with France). UK-specific PCIs include Ireland-UK, Scotland-Northern Ireland and development of the underground gas storage facility at Larne.'
Explanatory Memorandum of 21 December 2017 (document (a))
4.26 In the context of the deal reached on the first phase of the withdrawal negotiations, the Minister says:
“UK organisations should continue to bid for EU funding with the assurance that payments will continue after our departure from the EU. In respect of projects that have PCI status these would continue to be eligible to apply for, and receive, grants from the CEF energy programme and provided they meet the relevant criteria under the Connecting European Facility regulation and TEN-E regulation.”
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Reassuring regarding PCI funding beyond 2020. All looking secure
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmeuleg/301-x/30107.htm
Still a risk of course o and w. But directors seem driven and are aligned with s holders interests. Certainly £6 mill seems too cheap to be where this is. Considering construction starts next year. Market yet to fully catch on
All very good points and noted, even the £300mn capex number in the Infa presentation (schlemiel!) is subject to downward revision if efficiencies can be generated.
I'm a newbie believer, guys. I have bought 3mn shares this last week, and I plan to buy more in time. It's just that I try to see things from the project owner's point of view, not just the gross revenue numbers, which are mind-blowing in relation to the current MC, I agree.
Hear hear! Good job Adrian. Not easy at all. Remember where we were with the old guard?! Oblivion beckoned. To do what he and RTF did receive requisition took balls. And it took canny skill and determination to actually do the hard part which was to pull it off! It was always going to get worse before it got better. But we've weathered the storm.
Not forgetting that almost 2/3 of CAPEX is covered under the UK government guarantee scheme. So will basically be a loan at zero risk to the lender so will attract very favourable terms
O and W. Agree but also note the phased development and the possibility of grant funding to some degree plus reduced capex too. Not forgetting the doubling of the LOM so doubling revenues after the initial capex has been met.
For me holding long term. I think we could well be seeing muliples so risk vs reward v favourable at this mcap
The phased development will also make this much more attractive imo. Much reduced upfront CAPEX
By the time the FEED is complete approx £15mill will have been spent on the project. JW the new CEO is obviously very bullish and expects significant upside. I'm looking forward to the revised economics taking into account potential double project life and significant increase in storage volume. Cherry on the top would be an EU grant towards CAPEX
£300m? You don't know that to be true.
Yes, and that will take the buyer's total cost - capex + full equity ownership - from £300mn to £350mn. They will need to do their IRR sums on that basis.
Got to remember imo 5p sp is still just over £50mill mcap
Absolutely agree Spud....the guy, like JW is world class with relevant experience second to none globally.
Infrastrata is already well on the radar and Malcys blog on Monday should include his interview with our BoD.
Malcy has already shown keen interest in the recent reshuffle and the PR that will surely come from his comments on Monday will give a hell of a kick to the sp because Malcy is a much used source of material for the press and is avidly read by many hard hitting private investors and institutions.
There are so many ducks in a row, it's surreal....the things that investors dreams are made of!....a few years down the line, we should be able to live off the dividends alone!!
The numbers are staggering, Eyeguy, but let's remeber that the lion's share of them (and the associated capex to get it up and running) will accrue to the ultimate project equity owners. Petronas has been mooted, for instance.
What I can't get my head round still is how much of these revenues can/will flow down to Infa, on a recurring basis, or capitalised upfront in a buy-out.
energy supply and the influence of the EU. This article shows the EU dynamic of creating an energy system (ISEM) that affords the Irish government a large degree of influence and control over Northern Ireland's ability to supply itself. The EU's plan is to create an 'Ireland' in the truest sense of the word if not politically then in every other way
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/electricity-security-fears-major-ni-power-station-shut-suddenly/
https://www.kinsale-energy.ie/gas-storage.html Kinsale was the island of Ireland only gas storage facility and closed last year. Notice on the link who owned it! Petronas! New NED Arun is the key to commercialisation imo
of an off-take or signs of a commercial deal and the price will explode. We need to commercialise the project in the way Humbly Grove's been commercialised. If INFA can pull this off then whoosh
Petronas?
Vitol?
We shall see what INFA's new management can pull out of the hat
tend to be in possession of informed insight. Let's say they have to inform themselves of the facts to hone and perfect their political lobbying efforts otherwise their efforts would prove fruitless. I therefore always take note of what these people say and do
Which is why I take note of the following though I think it's already been posted it is worth noting its contents again -
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'The Cork LNG Terminal is proposed to have an annual import capacity of up to approximately 4 bcm of gas.
Both terminals would import fracked hydrocarbons from the United States and could be used for passthrough to the EU – instead of simply fulfilling domestic energy demands.
We can say for sure that the Shannon LNG terminal is part of a cluster of gas projects of the so-called European Projects of Common Interest, that could be subsidized with public money. At the moment, Ireland can only receive gas from the UK via the Moffat interconnector point in Scotland, but it cannot send gas to the UK.
The Shannon LNG terminal (or, alternatively, the Cork LNG terminal) would be used as an entry point for fracked US hydrocarbons with the capacity of creating a fossil lock-in for the next 30 – 50 years. Together with the planned reverse flow project at Moffat, the upgrade of the SNIP (Scotland to Northern Ireland pipeline) to accommodate physical reverse flow between Ballylumford and Twynholm and the Islandmagee Underground Gas Storage (UGS) facility at Larne (Northern Ireland), it is part of a big cluster of gas projects that would allow bidirectional flows from Northern Ireland to Great Britain and Ireland, and also from Ireland to United Kingdom'
https://www.foodandwatereurope.org/blogs/fracked-us-lng-torpedoes-irelands-dreams-of-a-fossil-free-future/
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You can see the EU plan in all its glory. Interconnectivity, security of supply, expansion of supply sources, liberalise the market to get prices down. Well, at present gas prices are on the rise across the island of Ireland. They need security and supply.
Really excited about this share. Its £1.2 billion revenues over 20 years. Oprx £10 million per annum. Life of caverns could well double. So £2.4 billion revenues excluding inflation. £6 mill mcap. Already bagged here but have no intention selling any. 6-10p for me. we will see, Im viewing this as a long term investment as it is very un aim like in the way this is and should behave.
Great post BD6! Thank You
Evening Setanta1, Responding to your message and apologies for the slight error, caught on the hoof. Never was any good at spelling. Exceptionally good at investing though, and at mathematics too. Added to which manners maketh man!! Adrian comes across as a gentleman and has captained this ship through turbulent waters. IMO that is worthy of respect and something that most people could not deliver successfully? To be disgruntled and to take humbrage? over a 13% loss on AIM is laughable. INFA is and will remain one of the better performing stocks on AIM for the foreseeable future and I for one will continue to invest heavily. Adrian, thank you once again. You have created a great platform from which INFA can grow and create added value for savvy investors.
just keep on rising in N-Ire. God forbid there's no disruption to supply at the most important times of the year. Maybe Ireland need to start to importing LNG and storing-trading it
https://www.pressreader.com/uk/belfast-telegraph/20180816/281517931960108
https://twitter.com/InfraStrata_Plc/status/1030464358428692480?s=19 Pics from site. Good to see pr picking up
I topped up my ISA at the dip today .. glad I did