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17% investor return per annum through buyback and divi.
Actually tempted to buy some more.
1.1b buyback, 1.3b divi, sales in line, progress in top 5 markets, signifcant growth in next gen
Hardly a surprise it would fall once Rishi announced raising the legal age to smoke every year…this business has along time to change, but if they include VAPES then eventually the distributors will all be criminals.
Large bearish sp, reaction today . If the price fall from April to May 2023 of 300, is replicated from the July 2023 peak, then 1555, would be the predicted sp. Today the low price has slightly exceeded broken under 1555, however historic support levels would give some credence to at least a rally to higher resistance level, which would be bottom of the last major trough in price.
Price pivot at 1666, if broken downward, would be bearish, but only if sp, closes below 1666 today or next few days .
If sp, can close above price pivot of 1674, on 26/9/23, today , then a pivot price break will occur, meaning expect rise rise. Target previously mentioned was 1713-1727.
Relax :)
If you're in for the long term for the dividends, the SP is irrelevant. Provided the dividend isn't cancelled or drastically cut, of course - and that seems unlikely given the cash generation. Of course, if you need to recoup your capital investment within 5-10 years you may have to crystallize a loss at some stage. But, personally, I wouldn't put money I might need in a few years into equities, especially when instant access accounts are offering 5%.
IMB, rallied as predicted today . I have refined price target to 1713-1727. Although this is a brief rally, bear trends do have rallies, it is just that the reaction are usually twice as much as we the rally . I had another look at the head and shoulder, formation , not an exact science , but it could predict an eventual fall to about 1600 , speculative if a buy is undertaken at 1600.
Imperial Brands has recovered some of Monday’s losses which followed reports that the UK was considering introducing a New Zeland-type smoking ban in the UK.
Shares are around 2% higher at 1,673.50p and Barclays thinks these worries are overdone, pointing out it is not a new discussion by the UK government.
The broker noted in "The Khan review - making smoking obsolete" published in June 2022, Dr Javed Khan alluded to following the NZ model.
“We doubt any such proposal will pass the current fractured UK parliament with elections looming over the next 12 months,” Barclays said.
“The UK government has yet to ban disposable e-cigarettes, which almost all stakeholders agree is a problem, so any cigarette ban is likely far off, in our view,” it added.
The broker modelled a scenario under which a NZ-style cigarette control proposal passes the UK parliament, with an implementation date of 2027.
It said this proposal would imply a c1.6% incremental headwind to cigarette volumes - from 2027.
Even under this proposal, the last cigarette sale in the UK would happen in 2087 it noted.
Barclays estimates the UK cigarette industry Ebit is structurally declining at a rate of c3% per annum, and thinks proposal would accelerate the decline from c3% to c5%.
But it suggests the void could then to be filled by lower taxed e-cigarettes, heated-tobacco and modern oral products, leaving the overall industry Ebit stable.
Barclays kept an overweight rating but trimmed this price target to 2,400p from 2,550p.
It highlighted the potential for share repurchases and the 8% dividend yield.
So this morning, Barclays gave some positive comments - which reiterated an overweight rating and raised its price target to 2,500p from 2,400p.
What do you guys reckon ?
Sideek, not sure if you are joking but the idea is that they can NEVER buy cigarettes if born after a certain date.
New Zealand did the same though I expect here it's the tory shout anything and see what the reaction is rather than a real idea.
"Under the first-of-its-kind anti-smoking laws passed by the Ardern regime, those aged 14 and younger cannot buy cigarettes ever in New Zealand, thereby outlawing the deadly habit for the next generation entirely"
Large bearish head and shoulder Price formation. The half hour candle chart shows, top Bollinger band, has turned down, often meaning a rally , within 10 price candles, expect a rally within the next 5 half hour bars, effectively tomorrow , Tuesday . Best hope, is that sp, rises, to 1700-1750 range, to enable a sell. I would not recommend a buy, because of the large h&s, bearish price formation .
No it's because I hold IMB and not BATS.
Well that's the next two dividends wiped out today - in advance.
Guess this'll happen every year so it's impossible to earn on this stock.
Well,BATS is not getting hammered as much as IMB.Is this the only reason?
Tomglan
Already those who were born after 2005 cannot buy cigarettes. Is Sunak reducing the age from 18 to 14 by 2009 year target
So much for our "conservative" government. Once they bring in their 15 Minute Cities & CBDCs you won't be able to wipe your **** with your left hand without prior approval.
Nice one thanks for the update!
"Prime minister Rishi Sunak is considering imposing a complete ban on smoking for the next generation in what would amount to some of the strictest measures to tackle the health problem anywhere in the world." From FT
Anyone know why the share price is down for IMB ? I can't find no intel!
So rally today, but high sp, failed to break above 1770.5. Price would require to close at 1771, or higher, to provide a bullish breakout. Presently as discussed in the previous message, BATS, is showing relative strength in the tobacco sector. The tobacco sector chart is showing upside strength, which is helpful, if the individual equity, can show indication of participating in that strength.
Norrab1, before you tell someone they are totally wrong you need to be 100% sure for obvious reasons. Admittedly, nothing is black and white, as addictions can vary from one person to another, but one link I found may change your stated view
https://www.rehabspot.com/drugs/10-most-addictive-substances-earth/
Nicotine is put at the Number 3 Addictive Drug. If you've seen any of the videos about the Fentanyl (Tranq is a modified version with additives) problems in the US and now creeping also into UK, even Ireland has had one death, you'll realise that nicotine doesn't result in streets allocated to drug addicts (Philadelphia, San Francisco, etc...). Rio de Janeiro has a district allocated to drug addicts.
Clued, you are totally wrong.
" Cigarette smoking is a much better activity than the highly addictive much more dangerous drugs sweeping the US and now starting to appear in Europe. What the politicians don't realise is that a high proportion of the population needs some kind of drug to cope with the life of today......"
Nicotine is the most addictive and dangerous drug out there. It kills millions globally.
The tobacco sector today , is making a new 3.5 month high, from the sideways congestion of the same period. BAT, is making a new 3 month high, but IMB, is the weaker equity. IMB, requires to close above 1790, to break above down trendline and at the same time recover the broken uptrendline.
risk it is- if ***s are taxed into the ground then if fewer get cancer and live longer how’s much longer state pays pension and how much keeping them with dementia in an emi nursing home? not so long ago this share £12.00. loose monetary policy has lifted it 50%. anybody’s guess now. much sector rotation rather than bear/ bull cycles now. if cannabis were legalised would be an opportunity for imb otherwise don’t see much in the way of growth so grade as a weak hold at this price if divis hold up
Cannot but agree with you even as non smoker.I know how easy it is to get addicted to it and many old with not much to live for don’t care have to die one way! Even so despite being a regular to tax they think the NHS cost saving long term more revenue effective or they would not take the risk! Just an observation!