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Well I think everybody half expected this and the resulting fall in the SP (although nearly 30% on top of the recent falls seems a bit drastic). I see they have more trouble with the furnaces again. I thought we were led to believe the electrode paste issue had been resolved a couple of years back. Now they haven’t got the working capital to finish the Co-gen plant. In fact it seems all their energies are being centered towards actually surviving, that is staying under the current financing from the Bank of China. What’s more they are not confident of achieving that with talk of additional/other financing. It seems the one positive reported every year (and I don’t mean this in any way disrespectful) is the Health and Safety report of no fatalities to-date, if only the rest of the company was doing as well. It all hinges on an improvement in the ferrochrome price and IMO that won’t happen for a few years yet, not until the next cycle for raw materials begins, everyone’s suffering. Short term It sure don’t look good, and I’m beginning to wonder about the longer term for IFL. But saying that even with debt to service and re-negotiate, the FeCr price stagnating and the constant Eskom issues a market cap of under £8m appears oversold to me, just my opinion.
Oh dear, I've been up to my eyeballs here since 09 and was more optimistic 18 months ago, so now it seems there's no light. Best forget and hope for a return before my pension now, years away! My only worry is they'll get bought out for tuppence and that'll be that? Any thoughts?
dunno m8,everythings tough atm,the good times aren't anywhere to be seen. other than the odd boomer,like gel atm.
brainer
55.pence when i sold long time ago ..........one way only now and its down
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what you think .the investing market ? or the hawker market
blimey.
The Numis BUY rating has been like a broken record ignoring the fact that the share is still in a downtrend. Broker ratings should be taken with a massive pinch of salt.
After having faith in Newmis "buy rating" I am now 80% down, in twelve months. Not happy.
Strewth this is not looking good ! I've been here since 2009 and just hope they can get through the downturn as I have sizable investment here.
Originally down for disclosure today, now August. Announcement on the horizon? Any thoughts?
No respite for IFL and the iron ore miners: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-08/junior-miners-facing-uncertainty-as-iron-ore-price-tumbles/6605006
Eskom electricity price hike rejected and fecr price of $1.08 rolled over for next quarter.
Good analogy AL75. We might know a bit more after the production report 23rd July, but I'm not holding my breath. Got a few bob tied up here (over £20K) it's been that long I hardly check the SP anymore. One day perhaps lol.
I'm not sure about death throes. IFL made it's first operating profit in the last 5 years last year and could easily service its debt in 2014. EPS is now positive and the business has assets far in excess of its liabilities. Of course it has difficulties in the Global iron ore market and mining operations, but unless I'm missing something I don't see death throes just yet. Maybe 1 or 2 nails in the coffin though. There's also lots of other factors at play e.g. debt ceiling of ZAR500m, USD/ZAR exchange rate, cost of electricity etc. but I'm not an expert on that. For me the share price is king and there's no reversal of the downward trend just yet. IMHO the share price will languish until the Global markets start to move in their favour.
Thanks FK1, You may be right although I hope not. Have to say, the next update better be phenomenally good! Have to agree with AL75 re-Numis, how do they substantiate the stated target price? Also what of the strategic partner in China, JISCO, sure they won't want to lose their stake if this company fails. Biggest problem here is the world market and unbridled export of raw ore from SA and now I see Zimbabwe which won't help matters. Anyone else fancy a gripe?
Looks like IFL is in its death throes midge. Down 7.41% today. I averaged down on this much to my chagrin. I think it is a write-off I am afraid. I can't see any hope of recovery having wasted my money twice.
Come on Numis, you can do better than repeatedly issuing an IFL buy recommendation: "International Ferro Metals Limited (LON:IFL)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by research analysts at Numis Securities Ltd in a report released on Wednesday. They currently have a GBX 25 ($0.40) price objective on the stock."
Hi, anyone got any views on the continual erosion of share value here, any opinions on the potential outcome? Realise we are now at the upper limit of bank funding and doubtful that current benchmark prices will generate any significant profit margin. Sure we are at the bottom of the cycle but can we survive before the upturn? Any comments?
All makes from grim reading, but there are Brokers still giving a target of up to 20 pence !
"Citigroup downgraded its long-run benchmark iron price forecast to $55 a metric tonne from $81 on Wednesday, pointing to declining demand, lower costs and cheap expansions. Citi said it expects global demand to contract from 2018 to 2025, led by top-consumer China, while low-cost output rises. "Perhaps the greatest structural challenge facing the iron ore market is the rolling over of Chinese iron ore demand, driven by declining domestic steel demand and rising scrap availability. As a result, despite growth from other emerging markets, we forecast a decline in global iron ore demand over the 2020s," said Citi. If you agree with Citi, then the outlook for IFL is very bearish. "The bank expects global demand to drop by more than 60 million tonnes between 2018 and 2015, driven by China. Citigroup pointed out that costs in the iron ore industry are falling across the board, partly as a reflection of the capex cycle and lower prices, with companies economising and demand for contractors and machinery declining. As far cheap expansions are concerned, Citi said Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton - the world's lowest cost producers - possess significant expansion capabilities, with potential to boost output to a combined 900 million tonnes or more by 2025, which is about 70% of global import demand. Citi maintained its bearish short and medium-term outlook, forecasting price to average around $40 a tonne over 2016-2018."
You are spot on, to suddenly have to postpone the co-gen modifications shows poor management IMO. Running close to funding limit was always on the cards this year so they've either not planned properly or there are further problems they're not disclosing right now. Co-gen plant was a nice idea but has been a bit of a millstone.
IFL's broker gives a brief assessment of the results: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/sp-angel/18252/todays-market-view-including-gemfields-international-ferro-metals-and-anglo-pacific-group-18252.html