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It doesn't say Lpt, it says Liberator Phase 1 gCOS 84:
Will try to find the link for this note
Do you have a link for the note?
Strange they put a COS on Lpt back in Jan when at that point there was no plan for a pilot hole.
The CPR states COS of 70% for liberator phase 2 east.
Note also a portion of Liberator AGR’s “Phase II East” is now being brought into Phase I.
From I3E's 2019/01/16: Corporate Update:
'With award of Block 13/23c (Phase II) to i3 in May 2018, Phase I development enlarged with expected third well to recover approximately 7 MMbbls of AGR’s “Phase II East” 2C contingent resources.'
"Does missing the edge of the channel in the narrowest section of the field affect the chances of an appraisal well that’s approximately 1km from an entirely section of that channel edge?"
Lpt is drilled bang on in the middle of the thickest upper captain sands resevoir which was not there
Will pm you pics of Lpt location as well
page 45 of AGR report dated November 2017. Extract below.
In order to navigate the wells and maximise stand-off from the OWC, geo-steering will be required within the 8-1/2” reservoir hole section where ROP will need to be secondary in order to meet this well objective. The possibility of drilling a pilot well was considered by i3 and their 3rd party advisors early in the drilling planning phase. Together with Petrofac, i3’s Well Management contractor, and Baker Hughes, i3’s Oilfield Services supplier, i3 concluded that including AziTrak and ViziTrak in the LWD suite will negate the need for a pilot well. In AGR’s view a pilot hole to fully optimise the well trajectory should still be considered in the well execution phase as formational top uncertainties become realised. Contingency planning should be in-place in order to mitigate this well risk
Thank you. Family day today but will look at it as and when I can.
Will pm you the entire WHI note in a min on twitter
Does a possible adjustment to the COS really prevent the A3 drill from going ahead?
Is it worth questioning that until the company has had chance to review its initial findings on L2?
Does missing the edge of the channel in the narrowest section of the field affect the chances of an appraisal well that’s approximately 1km from an entirely section of that channel edge?
Too many assumptions and scaremongering going on right now with too little fact.
@Alexios i would welcome seeing the detail in that WH Ireland note because their figures do not align with the phase 2 CPR, which is king when it comes to Liberator and has been employed by various parties of late to beat the company up with. Those bearish on the company can’t have it both ways.
Liberator East is declared as contingent resources development unknown. The COS stated in the CPR is 70%. There is no definition between gCOS or cCOS. Fact. That supersedes a broker note be they house broker or not, because as seasoned investors as yourself clearly understand, such institutions adjust data as they see fit and make errors hand over fist.
The same CPR has Liberator West as COSg of 56.3% and that contains prospective resources only. So how on earth would A3 in Liberator East be just 60%.
One as yet unmeasured mistake on the pilot well and suddenly all known facts are being questioned and changed. I3E needs to find some stability so this nonsense can stop.
How long does it take to review the data??? Months rather than weeks IMO
S1 seismics are done using the same parameters as it was done for Lpt pilot so it doesn't make any difference whether they drill A3 or S1 first...
Both, A3 and S1 permits are still pending with S1 permits sent on 9-10Sep and A3 permits sent on 29-30Aug so A3 permits will come in first.
I don't believe so, as it's targeted to be in the sweet-spot of the field more centralised.
Risk on A3 will now have increased. I think they are going to drill S1 first , so they have the time to review all the data from last week.
Figures taken from WHI Ireland note 8Jan2019 page 8
Lpt gCOS 84%
A3 gCOS 60%
S1 gCOS 54%
gCOS - Geological Chance of Success
cCOS - Commercial Chance of Success
Backwoodsman You will also find the 70% CoS (covering the A3 well area) in the independent CPR Phase 2 report in para 9.2. This is not the company's CoS - it is independent. There is a wide range of outcomes in the report but a mid-case outcome would result in a considerable re-rate to sp imho.
There is no company reference to a 90% CoS for LPt-02.
Please correct and give reference if otherwise.
So that 90% figure is a BB guess/fabrication.
And any argument based on this 90% is erroneous.
The CPR gives states a 70% CoS for Phase 2 East.
"70% chance of finding a sufficiently large volume to develop (STOIIP)."
A3 is targeting Phase 2 East.
There is no CPR on Serenity.
The 70 Cos for Serenity comes from the company.