The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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That's a lot of words for zero content. Paper over the cracks of your ignorance
Hallsworthy,
"The throwaway pollution comment was clearly a random example which you've strangely latched on to, but the point is you have someone in a bed in quarantine you can watch what they eat, drink, breathe, how long the sleep for, how often and how long they sit on the toilet"
The comment was made by dustofnations, whilst he was also commenting re Mo's comments. DoN was also praising Mo for replying to his question.
How do you know DustofNations made a throwaway comment? Is he a mate?
It raises the question as to how many other comments are also throwaway comments?
My comments, bear points/red flags have been consistent. The company newsflow backs up what I've been saying.
As expected, results published and no surge.
The bear points/red flags haven't been countered or proved wrong.
Look at the current sp. The Chairman dumped majority of his holding at 28p. As Chairman/founder, he knows the business better than anyone else.
Yes agree - I will resist any further reaction.
One last and final appeal before I leave this board. Please, please everyone ignore the guy!!!! It is the only way to get rid of him. You are falling right into his trap, every time and making this board less than pointless!!
Mr. Singh always feels the need to latch onto new tangential topics where he believes he may get some purchase, having been thoroughly debunked.
His behaviour is definitional Sealioning:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sealioning
Demanding evidence and debate, faux expressions of 'concern' and civility, filling the boards with bad-faith nonsense designed to exclude beneficial conversation.
Sealion Singh outwardly humiliates himself on a frequent basis, but is undeterred from his mission.
For example: Air pollution is well demonstrated in the literature to be a significant cause of asthma exacerbations.
Ideally, you would want to control the quality of the air participants breathe during a pioneer/challenge clinical study, given asthma is a respiratory condition.
Outside of a challenge model in an advanced facility such as those offered by hVivo that is very difficult to achieve, given this is an ambient factor that one cannot control (e.g. traffic, poor indoor air quality, etc).
Here's a meta-analysis:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00302-3/fulltext
You will find numerous studies over decades showing this. There is nothing to argue about.
The team have mentioned this is an area of interest for them to get into, regarding challenge studies.
Yet Sealion Singh will continue on arguing regardless, because it's his job. He has not even the most rotten of wooden legs to stand on. He's the equivalent of a pub bore talking over everyone else.
Sealion Singh doesn't deserve the expertise or insight of this group; he humiliates himself with his lack of knowledge of science, finance, business, and accounting.
For example, Sealion Singh doesn't seem to understand how fixed instruments work.
Sealion Singh has more than earned his place on my filter list, and no doubt his various aliases shall join eventually.
What are you talking about Stt?! No one mentioned "life" apart from you. The very simple point, unsurprisingly missed by you as is so often the case, is that in human challenge trials you can more carefully control other variables which "real world" trials cannot.
The throwaway pollution comment was clearly a random example which you've strangely latched on to, but the point is you have someone in a bed in quarantine you can watch what they eat, drink, breathe, how long the sleep for, how often and how long they sit on the toilet etc etc.
What a huge benefit to be able to control so many variables.
I'm honestly astounded by your stupidity sometimes, I'll add this one to the list of "really stupid things Stt said once". I just hope for your sake it's on purpose.
Turnkey,
My assertion is that revenues/order book growth has slowed significantly. The figures from the company back up my assertion.
The Chairman would have known the figures. I think that's why he dumped majority of his holding 2 months ago, well before the fy results.
Dustofnations,
Please answer the replies to your original assertions:
You claimed:
"I also was glad to hear that they're putting the cash into instruments that are achieving a decent yield of 5%+ — like UK Govt gilts or similar"
My reply:
Really? Gov has huge debt and needs to raise money. There's also a GE this year, which raises uncertainty about direction of govn policy going forward.
Please explain why you happy the company is investing shareholder's money in high risk govn gilts, when there's huge uncertainty over govn debt and there's a GE this year?
Your comment re controlled environment:
"In the real world, trials are often confounded by environmental factors and the lack of continuous data collection on volunteers (e.g. did the patient breathe in some polluted air; did the patient eat something that triggered them; etc). Having a strictly controlled climate and diet controlled environment with continuous biometric monitoring would provide much better datasets!"
They don't keep 'volunteers' in quarantine for life? It's usually a few days, I'm glad you agree on that. The volunteers, who can be in desperate need of money, eg students, won't keep a running day by day log of whether they breathed in polluted air!!!
HVO's facility is in London. If volunteers go down to London to the facility then they will obviously be breathing in polluted air every day.
How will they monitor whether the volunteer breathed in some polluted air etc, given London is a polluted city?
Can you point to where the company states that they monitor "whether the volunteer has breathed in some polluted air" and how they distinguish between polluted and unpolluted air?
The bear points I've mentioned still valid then.
The order book is still growing though
Well, Mr Singh, your response amply demonstrates that you have no domain expertise to make sensible comment on either the business model nor the biotechnology aspects. And you have subpar reading comprehension skills.
I'll explain it in very basic terms given your simple-minded nature.
Many clinical trials are disrupted by participants not being in a controlled environment, this is because statistical "noise" is introduced into the data by uncontrolled variables which are difficult to eliminate without greatly increasing the size of the trial and/or trying to control participant behaviour (which is difficult).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confounding
This is especially true of environmental and dietary factors, which are very important in autoimmune challenge trials. For example, if one is doing an asthma human challenge trial, then it is very obvious that air pollution is a highly salient factor.
The inflammatory markers that would be observed during an autoimmune challenge trial are quite fast acting and could easily be captured during the normal challenge trial period (up to 14 days). As you would expect, the immune system is very capable of acting quickly, especially the inflammatory part, which is the "first responder".
Other institutions already do such autoimmune challenge trials, but on a much smaller scale (e.g. a handful of participants at universities). This is fine for pioneer studies, but doesn't have the statistical power required for progressing to the next phases of clinical trials.
Autoimmune disease is a huge source of morbidity and it is notoriously difficult to study. There is a lot of unmet need. Hence, it is likely to be an excellent new area that HVO could grow into in future, whilst making use of their current facilities.
With that, we can dismiss yet another foolish screed by someone unwisely gambling against HVO.
He gets a response from some on here and likes the attention. It's the only attention he has in his life.
He is a nothing. To me he is in a green box too, so he is less than a nothing.
All Frank does is bash companies, so I suspect he is just shorting them. Just take some solace that we are not the only ones that have to read his negative rhetoric.
God! He really hates this company doesn’t he. The question remains. Why waste so much time on something that has no benefit to you whatsoever? It’s like studying for an exam, yet you have no intention of taking said exam.
PS. The Dunning Krueger effect was inspired by Frank.
Dustofnations
"In the real world, trials are often confounded by environmental factors and the lack of continuous data collection on volunteers (e.g. did the patient breathe in some polluted air; did the patient eat something that triggered them; etc). Having a strictly controlled climate and diet controlled environment with continuous biometric monitoring would provide much better datasets!"
They don't keep 'volunteers' in quarantine for life? It's usually a few days. The volunteers, who can be in desperate need of money, eg students, won't keep a running day by day log of whether they breathed in polluted air!!!
My assertion that the business model is questionable remains.
"I also was glad to hear that they're putting the cash into instruments that are achieving a decent yield of 5%+ — like UK Govt gilts or similar"
Really? Gov has huge debt and needs to raise money. There's also a GE this year, which raises uncertainty about direction of govn policy going forward.
Lots of local councils are going technically bankrupt.
Gov gilts are high risk. You can easily get around 4-5% in safer accounts.
An excellent presentation.
I was delighted to have my question about challenge trials for non-infectious disease answered in so much detail by Mo — thanks, Mo, as always. My example was autoimmune diseases such as psoriasis, but Mo also mentioned asthma and allergies.
Ultimately, there is a rich vein of data to be collected by monitoring inflammatory markets and other biometrics in response to therapeutics (and possibly challenges by allergens).
In the real world, trials are often confounded by environmental factors and the lack of continuous data collection on volunteers (e.g. did the patient breathe in some polluted air; did the patient eat something that triggered them; etc). Having a strictly controlled climate and diet controlled environment with continuous biometric monitoring would provide much better datasets!
Mo's answer was, to paraphrase: we're focussing on our core competency of infectious disease for now, but non-infectious challenge trials are a promising area of growth we could branch into in the future.
It was a wonderful answer; it shows forward thinking and planning from the team, yet acknowledges that there's current still plenty of untapped demand in the pathogen-based human challenge trial market to address.
My only minor nit is that I'd have loved a more substantial special dividend on top of the nominal dividend; but let's see what/who they acquire with circa £40m cash.
(p.s. I also was glad to hear that they're putting the cash into instruments that are achieving a decent yield of 5%+ — like UK Govt gilts or similar).
Why spend so much time on a share in which you don't want to invest.Nor have the balls to go short on. Just go and talk about a share you believe you can make money on.
Great presentation, the company has never looked stronger , a great future ahead ! A PE firms dream !! A couple of contracts signed and we’ll be getting a revenue upgrade later this year …
It’s MO’s turn now.
You are a freak ;-)
MO has huge > 7m options, awarded last year, back dated to 2022 and excersiable from few months time.
He has the incentive to talk up the company.
Look at the conditions attached to his huge 7m options:
"The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the dateMr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the Company.
Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price. A portion of the LTIP Options will vest on the third anniversary of the date of award subject to the achievement of a minimum 10% CAGR TSR performance increasing on a straight-line basis to vesting in full subject to the achievement of a 22.5% CAGR TSR performance.
The award of the LTIP Options is also subject to continued employment, malus and clawback provisions and will vest in full on a takeover of the Company."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export
Personally happy they’re not rushing to use that cash like without being very clear any prospective acquisition is good value and a good fit. Hoping to get a £10m addition to revenues via acquisition as part of the £100m rev target by 2028 so no need to jump in
I wish they'd move along with their acquisitions but I know cathal would be looking to pay bottom dollar. He paid £13m for the whole of Hvivo, which was an insulting amount even at the time! I hope to be on the right side of the deal this time around.
Yep, more meat on the bones as to how they're going to get to £100m by 2028.
I'm always impressed by MO, less so presentationally by Stephen but there's no doubt he knows his stuff too.
Great update from Mo & Stephen, the company is in very safe hands IMHO.
GLA