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Fred_Bloggs,
". I'd put my money on a pump fault and if so, then quite possible a shaft seal failure. "
That sounds remarkably detailed for a 'guess'. Or is it in fact really a 'guess' ?
The Wilhelmshaven port authority first reported that Petroatlantic was due to arrive on the 21st from Lancaster with a 61mt load. That report appeared on the 13th February. To arrive at Wilhelshaven on the 21st they would have had to complete the offload on or before 19th February. If they realistically expected to have a 61mt load (459,600 BBL) by the 19th it is fairly reasonable to assume that on, or earlier than the 13th (when the port received notification of the expected load) the AM had onboard 348k BBL. Anything less than this and it would have been very unlikely they would be able to achieve the target load by the 19th.
OPEC meet on 5th March and OPEC+ on the 6th, and what are the chances they cut production to support poo
IMO HUR have retained a good proportion of their production for the next offload in expectation of a higher price.
Blackrock has taken out a 0.59% short on the 27th Feb making the total 1 28%.
It's said that weather was unlikely to force a stop to the oil transfer. So, providing there is still a part February load on board it would then appear likely a technical issue. Given that the transfer of oil FPSO > Shuttle Tanker would be pumped across then I would think most likely to be interupted either by a power outage or by a pump fault. I'd put my money on a pump fault and if so, then quite possible a shaft seal failure. Not that uncommon. We'll know for certain on the volumes if we get an early off load in March for a large trans shipment.
I am psychic. Early on the 25th I wrote....
'Just hope it doesn't cause another round of trauma on the board when detractors start analysing what the offload was and whether that means HUR are/aren't producing 2000 bopd etc etc yadda yadda!
agree well well.....maybe thats it they want someone more capable of getting a farm out etc
I think he’s not good on the ‘softer’ elements ie doesn’t matter how good a CFO he may or may not have been, he can’t sell it as we all witnessed at the last CMD. I reckon the board forced his position.
But he’s also going to be forever tarred with the warrant debacle. As long as he remained the concern would be of a repeat.
I’m pleased he’s gone and wish him well.
trice has always made it clear the market will be updated - so i discount that. financial irregularities i find hard to believe.
my musings on stobie is that he has possibly got on the wrong side of someone - and the low SP maybe has been used as ammunition to get rid of him.
could be institutional investors ? or maybe if there has been a change in relationship with OGA as some have suggested - could it have been his doing?
the other thing that I have wondered is if the spirit deal had been badly contracted and hadn't really allowed for the outcome that occurred. Have hur been left with expenses that a better contract would have avoided?
just having a rambly morning.....probably none of it makes sense
Worse case scenario for me is that AS has wanted to tell the market about the cause of problems ,as evidenced by lower production and highlighted by falling sp but was overuled - hence he walked. Hope I am wrong.
I wonder if they are keeping more oil on than usual to help stabilise the fpso? if more bad weather is expected?
light load is a puzzler - if it was issues with production then they would have informed us. Also why pay for a light offtake?
so.....issues with transfer? price of oil lower than they wanted to sell at?
An earlier than expected off load in March will confirm early shutdown of the FPSO > Shuttle Tanker transfer then, because the FPSO will still have a significant inventory of February's oil on board. Likewise, a later March off load will confirm that the production in February was lower than anticipated. For reasons unknown in both cases.
Amaja,thank you for your findings regards the PA parcel load and i wouldn’t be surprised if you are correct about AS,Klepto.
Maybe this a 'Keep a Tiger in your Tank' scenario?
Keep some back on the AM simply because we have an OPEC meeting next week, Mar 05th , and perhaps the price/barrel is expected to rise?
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/311.htm
Amaja,
"Yesterday I spoke with the man in charge of the discharge operations of Nord West Oelleitunggesellschaft in Wilhelmshaven. He was reluctant to reveal the cargo size of the PA. However, at my supposition (?) that the PA was fully loaded, his answer was litterally: NOT FULLY LOADED, NOT AT ALL. That ties in with the draught of 10.3. So perhaps 60% of a full load? Reasons? One can only guess. "
Thanks (as ever) for your efforts. As you'll see from other posts here, it's evident that the tanker was 'light loaded', but the reason for that is just guesswork.
Yesterday I spoke with the man in charge of the discharge operations of Nord West Oelleitunggesellschaft in Wilhelmshaven. He was reluctant to reveal the cargo size of the PA. However, at my supposition (?) that the PA was fully loaded, his answer was litterally: NOT FULLY LOADED, NOT AT ALL.
That ties in with the draught of 10.3. So perhaps 60% of a full load? Reasons? One can only guess. Perhaps the 7 well only came on stream mid Feb?
On another point I really hope that HE sold forward say 50% of their estimated troughput (like Ithaca did in the past). If not, then AS blundered his way through adequate risk management.