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I think many of you here are naive concerning the agricultural and farming business in Brasil.
I have experience ,albeit in ag machinery, with this sector and I will tell you now purchase orders received,goods delivered,invoices raised mean absolutely nothing. The only real measure is invoices paid. Delay and default are common occurrences and legal action to recover bad debts can take years.
That previous poster - who said invoices as close as you'll get to income from sales forward viewing - was smalleyus.. and, his 'quirkiness ' included even, he's very much worth listening too imho .. (he knows an awful lot about this company/sector/region/country etc..)
You might easily be right on us not seeing 1.5p, profs.. but I'm happy to wait and see .. as we just might too.. imho :-)
I don't think we will see 1.50 or 0.7 unless there's bad news on the horizon.
HMI focus seems to be on actually getting paid now and as a previous commentator stated invoice is as close as your going to get.
yesterdays minor rise was due to the sales campaign ending today. Nearly 90k views on instagram kp fertil sales ad video and comments below the video suggest it has been a success.
update soon detailing sales order received and how much has been converted to invoice.
GLA.
While anything can happen in doggy shares like this, I get... I'd still be very surprised if this goes anywhere near .7p thru the remainder of this year, Pedro.
Indeed I'd be surprised if this goes back even close to 1p in remainder of 2024
And while I sold a bit more into yesterdays spike, to now hold a very small position here, I'd be open to adding back if this falls to 1.5p ish .. and indeed open to keeping incrementally adding if further weakness again from there too ..
I do not trust the board. Dodgy is the word. I think this would be worth looking at with better management. I will keep looking,but I think every chance of this going below 0.70p...It seems that many investors are wisely bailing out....Much further to go down,in my opinion.
That could be the silliest spread I have ever seen!
Indeed.. and few would look to buy against such a spread.. ditto sell too maybe... i'll guess ..
And I'll further guess some more traders who bought in in recent rally will throw in the towel in coming weeks... and I'd be tempted to add some back if this goes under 1.50 p soon(ish).... (I see this as a very high risk play still...but believe that, in the round, 24 will be somewhat better than 23 ... and 25 better again
MM upto their usual shenanigans.
Ticking up nicely
Kp fertil Sales ad for april only, viewed 20k times in 4 days.
Might be a rns start of may or mid may detailing more information. There is reasons to be optimistic regarding the company.
Blue open
Gamblers remember the house always wins in the end
Phew, finally out at 2.65 without a loss other than dead money for a considerable time.
Thank.you all the new and renamed rampers for this gift.
This stock.will.dwell here with the only interest coming from MM's and gamblers.
Eventually it will die completely with McMasters being the only winner.
Good luck all
It's kind of a chicken and egg scenario tho nicetomichu.
The games MM's play make it well nigh impossible to be a long term investor now on AIM. There is virtually no logic in price action anymore. Too many businesses with potential get trashed, as a simple example look at SAR, the sp has dropped 90 odd percent whilst the business advanced in to a seemingly successful trial.
AIM just needs proper regulation, LSE don't manage it at all imho
Unbelievable!
Average of 4.7p, gets banned, then comes back to make a profit at 3p.
WOW!
Good Look
The problem with this company ,and it is a very big problem...is trust...A very big problem..How can you trust this company?
It looks like syngenta acquired Agro Cerrado in may 2023.
460k is loose change for syngenta, alternative would be to have its accounts frozen.
it also appears agro cerrado didn't file a second apeal to the lower courts decision.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.klalaw.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Recovery-of-Trade-Debts-in-Brazil.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj-hNLdwryFAxUEWUEAHfMpAXsQFnoECBIQBg&usg=AOvVaw2UFbPa2BYwyVED8GDPPGiZ
I think the MM's have wider and wider spreads these days to discourage short term traders AND to give themselves more of a turn within the spread.
Because short term traders dominating the market landscape - as per AIm generally these days -makes things more demanding/dangerous for MM's.. er in meeting their market making obligations in yo-yo/quickfire scenarios .. they can more readily end up with not enough stock on their book one day and too much the next ..or visa versa..etc.. and so it's a riskier game for MM's..
I'd largely agree
I did take some profit at 3p but will reinvest it in the next couple of weeks as AIM is so predictable. How can the MMs possibly justify a continuous 20% spread, it is just ridiculous. They clearly have no shares and are trying to panic sells.
It's this kind of behaviour that explains largely why AIM is now such a mistrusted market
My guess is more short term traders will exit here in coming weeks .. meaning this might go back under 1.5 p to buy in the coming weeks ..
while my remaining- Small - holding would take a hit , I’m ok with this as I’m open to adding slowly /small size into any s/p weakness from here, to bring my average down a bit as we go ..
Michael Taylor's - whoever he may be - last line in that X post made me smile :
''I believe little is in #HMI's price because nobody likes it.''
Nobody likes it for good reason perhaps Michael ?! :-)
PS: Barno, I propose you re research your research so far.
I'd snap their hands off for £83 a tonne
Oh boy, you really haven't a clue dear Barnabus ! It's not like eggs, you can't compare traditional fertiliser prices with the Kp product !
Using the same amount of Kp as traditional fertiliser are we Barnabus ! Good luck, or should that be good look with that crop output. Stick to your usual stocks fella and stay away from the agricultural business, its definitely not for you !
Https://x.com/shiftingshares/status/1480480799665258496?s=46&t=HgM4zbU7U9hvrXg5g7uc4Q
Bang On !!
The 21% spread is ridiculous, but warranted by the MM given the potential for volatility.
And is usually a sign of a break out or possibly down.
The MM don’t want to be caught holding the baby.
Interesting to see where this all goes over the next week.