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Hello everyone, I'm new here and newly invested. I just wanted to note that the FDA has a special process for CAR T cell therapy studies. Patients in phase 1 and phase 2 may not be treated simultaneously. This means that patient 1 receives the drug and then you have to wait a certain time (days/weeks) until patient 2 receives the drug, etc. This will extend the study duration compared to "normal" clinical studies.
Good luck. You can probably average down next month and the month after, then with your average around 1.3 you will hopefully triple your money by the end of the year. This will come good...............................one day
Hmmmm, I doubt it'll take that long, but I get your sentiment. 4/5p by year end sounds about right, but I think the movement northwards will be earlier imo. ;)
Hi Marco, welcome to the mad house!
Thanks for sharing what you know about the CAR T trials. It was also something I spotted in the Proactive article that patients will be dosed a month apart. Lets say 28 days for arguments sake, this is also the time period used in Noelle Frey's other CAR T trials.
If we are aiming to present 3 sets of data in early December this is another indication that we are to shortly get this show on the road. I imagine they will at least want a month to pull together their results and presentation.
Really strengthens the argument that HEMO CAR T should be going into arms very soon!
I hope so dhub and Vlad has got bank holiday Monday to get a bit further with whatever it is he's doing...
They have chosen AML as one of the most difficult cancers to treat and in turn one of the most difficult populations within AML, RR. I don't know whether the high-risk group of tsmAML is included, who have a few weeks of life left after diagnosis. Hardly anything has changed in AML treatment in 50 years, and for the most part nothing has changed in 30 years. Only for some subpopulations with certain gene mutations are there special treatments with slightly better survival times. All of this makes it a high-risk investment; over 90% of AML Phase 3 trials over the last 30 years have failed at their primary endpoint. However, if it represents a groundbreaking new therapy for AML, the treatment would quickly become a billion-dollar business. We are currently in phase 1. I estimate from personal experience at other AML companies that even with problem-free studies up to phase 3, success cannot be expected before 2030. Therefore, I see this as one of my earliest (clinical phase status) and riskiest investments. This will either be a total loss or a 3,000% gain.
MarcoBerlin
Really enjoyed reading your post with AI surly this will quicken alot of the process and AI alone is rapidly advancing also .
We are currently in phase 1. I estimate from personal experience at other AML companies that even with problem-free studies up to phase 3, success cannot be expected before 2030.
@MarcoBerlin. 3000%? I’m not sure if you’re smoking weed but a breakthrough treatment will result in a multi-billion on-going enterprise. Not only that but it also confirms Hemo as a serious player with scientific excellence, within this sector Which, all things being equal, would add gravity to the other treatment candidates.
Wouldnt £600m be 3000% from here?
The sp would be 60p approximately. Something to dream about I suppose 😊
I’m not saying it wouldn’t be nice, it’d make me a millionaire. But it’s on the low side of an estimate, should phase 3 trials be successful. It’s a big ‘IF’ but can you imagine the global buzz if it works?!?!?!?
Just remember the video of the humanised mouse that had been treated - running around as normal.
Evening All
Based on the info supplied by RNS & factual scraps sniffed out by us investors ,
Stockholders make a judgement to purchase stock or not & await the potential unfolding of Hemo science origami & potential huge stock re rate if all goes to plan .
Very content to be invested as were Prevail hence tossing dosh in .
Let’s see what coming weeks bring .
Hope all had a decent and holiday weekend 👍
Morning all,
Well, is this the week we are going to get some news from the Impaler? It's certainly due. Meanwhile a nice buy this morning shown below (marked as a sell of course)
28-May-24 08:51:44 1.495 300,000 Sell* 1.45 1.55 4,485
Whilst waiting for Hemo, I'm enjoying the rise in Ocado over the last week. Some shorts getting burned there, would love to see the same with our favourite share #comeonvlad
I would like to answer the questions as to why I "only" assume a market capitalization of 500-800 million, assuming phase 3 is positive. My opinion is that it takes time and money to get approval. Difficulties regularly arise in studies, particularly with AML. In addition, it is a gene therapy that has never been tested in AML. It is not known what additional requirements the FDA and the EMA will place on the studies. All of this increases the time factor but above all the cost factor. A normal AML phase 3 study recruits an average of 300-400 patients, and treatment and follow-up are carried out as planned for at least 3 years. Costs of 100 million are still calculated conservatively. Currently 1.3 billion shares have been issued. I expect a reverse split and a subsequent capital increase. That will be a very big dilution. At the end of all things, production must be guaranteed in terms of quality and quantity before an application for approval is made, because that is part of the application. Precisely because this is a potentially groundbreaking new therapy for AML, there are currently so many unknowns that you cannot take into account but should take into account as a possible investor. The various capital increases that will probably be necessary, together with the expected costs that could amount to several hundred million, I realistically see a market capitalization of initially half a billion until approval. Nobody knows if it helps or who it helps. The problem with AML is precisely the different genetic variants. A variety of gene mutations regularly occur in the same AML patient, which has always made treatment so difficult. Whether even CAR T cells will have difficulties there or perhaps only a certain population, no one knows. Yes, if it really is a therapy that changes everything for the majority of patients, then we are talking about potential sales of over 4 billion per year. But I don't count on that when making my investment decision! If that were the case, then the value would not be foreseeable at the moment. I once saw a pharmaceutical company go from $0.5 to $70. But anyone who sets this as their goal will certainly lose a lot of money on biotech investments. The first milestone will be to avoid directly killing the first patient with the treatment. It sounds macabre but that is the reality of AML. I would be happy to take any positive results that come with me. If a possible partner is found who finances part or all of the whole party, then I'll rethink everything!
So the MC is only based on Hemo Car-T results being positive. What about the other products we have in the pipeline - CBR, CDX etc ?
For me, I think that CBR could be the jewel in the crown and if it works as expected I think Hemo will be bought out.
@Saint68
If CBR works (and of course it does:-)
What would you say was a fair buyout price?
This is a conundrum I struggle with as I find we become priceless in a situation like that.
Every single person on this earth could be using our product at least once in their life time, but do not rule out every year if it becomes available for the common flu.
I'd be scared to sell to cheap.
A buyers profit equals my loss.
So personally, I'd rather that HEMOGENYX runs the ship and make some profitable partnerships along the way.
I think that will expedite the development of CBR and that it will also be the most profitable solution for us shareholders and benefit humankind the most.
A win win situation all way round.
@SocialistB - tricky question that as it will depend on when the potential buyout may happen. Getting a big name partner who could provide non dilutive funding would be my preferred option so that we could hold onto it for as long as possible. Would like to see us in phase 1 / 2 trials before any offers materialise. Unfortunately I think we will be bought out before full value is realised - all this assuming it works.
First things first though - let’s get some patients dosed with Hemo-Car-T. Hopefully we’ll get some news soon.
@Saint68
The thing about a buyout is that it will only happen if a majority of shareholders allow it.
And a buyout will always happen at a lower price then the company is worth, as it would be insane for a buyer to pay more then the company is worth.
My view is that if CBR is just half as fantastic as I dream, then that alone ought to give us a market cap in the 10-15 BILLION range 10 years from now.
And that is my conservative thoughts.
So sure there will be an attempt to buy the company at say 50 pence a share way before then.
But in my view, it would be silly to accept such an offer.
Having said that, I do understand the desire to topslice, but I urge my fellow investors to not accept a pitiful offer in a buyout.
A offer for less then 10 quid a share, for CBR that works is in my view pityful and not fair value.
But I admit we have to get there first and it is an uncertain road.
So I'd definitely urge people to be smart and de-risk along the way.
Hi Socialist,
I hope you don't mind me butting in on your discussion with Saint. I agree with you that CBR has MASSIVE potential and could be worth many billions as you state 10 years down the line. However, if there was an attempt to buy the company later this year for the figure of 50p as you quote, I think most shareholders would vote for it I believe. Even many long term ones like you and me. It may be under selling ourselves but a bird in the hand etc, and it would still make many of us multi-millionaires . I'm not saying I'd do it, but if I'm being honest, I would seriously have to think about it that's for sure.
Food for thought
@SocialistB - I agree that it would be selling ourselves short to accept 50p but as dhub says, that would make many on here millionaires and I fear that many would accept that and fade off into a very comfortable retirement. Being realistic, if CBR is as good as we think it is, there is no way Hemo will still be around to see it to commercialisation.
I would definitely accept 50p but I see your point that's it's undervalued with what CBR could be. You'd think they'd therefore want to get on with CBR ASAP, Vlad did say in vid after approval I think work on CBR would dramatically increase after trials start. This was before raising less money than he thought in the placing, so don't know if they have the funds to do this. You'd think either way though they would want to partner with someone to get money and accelerate these studies. He did say something like several parties were interested. Prevail were committed investors too. We can live in hope that something like this will happen.
@dhub and Saint68
I don't mind you joining the conversation dhub, the more the merrier:-)
I get the one bird in the hand stuff.
I get the temptation to retire early.
And I admit I would be foolish to not entertain the idea of selling up and retire early.
But I am a dreamer and I am 99 percent sure I'd vote no to 50 pence, unless Mr Sandler and the board recommended taking the offer.
I just hate the thought of not getting fair value.
And for that reason accepting the first offer from a major is a no go.
Let a bidding war commence.
That ought to take us multible above our example of 50 pence if CBR does what it says on the can.
But, I'd really like the idea of making partnerships with various of the majors, for various virus treatments in various markets.
If the CBR technology can spawn in many various directions, then it is to big a handful for just one company, not to mention the danger of 1 company sitting on it all alone.
I like competition, I think it is good for society.
So making licensing agreements with various majors and allow for some competition will speed up development, ensure fair prices, avoid monopoly.
All while still making us a good profit.
So, I really hope people would turn down a petiful offer if such one should come forward.
Sell some shares to John Joe, who is hoping it will rise to 60 pence instead.
Bank some profit, like you did at 4pence (I'd wish I had done as well) enjoy a early retirement but please stay invested on a journey that might change everything as we know it, when it comes to fighting viruses.