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Thanks for all the comments, your time and input are much appreciated and very useful. Good luck! CJ.
Interesting points, a recent rig photo showed that the integrated iron rough neck was not in place during drilling , so the rig is not in its original state. So maybe the rig manager is to over see restoration.
Renting the rig out, if similar delays to Tai are experienced then who is liable for the costs... ?
Without knowing how Itumbula was left, it is not possible to know if a rig is required to re-enter and prepare the well for EWT.
Everybody if left guessing..
Oh and LW as we have been told He1 are in the process of hiring a Drill / Rig Manager to start in April. If we won't be drilling and appraisal well until after the EWT and likely therefore Q4 why would we be doing that, if not to rent it out.
If you are a newbie….. not saying you not , but this is the weirdest chat groups I have ever been on ! Not sure what to believe lol . Everyone is a true investor ! Ummmm , day traders , shorters and just Nast people getting you to loose your money!I found out the hard way buying into other shares pumped on here , no names mentioned ….. lost my money !!! So the moral of this story is enjoy the banter do your own research big time , do not be swayed into buying cross ramped shares !
Wish you lots of luck and I believe this is a great company and I have held for many years in and out !
He1 knows better than most companies what impact the fear of a raise can have on the share price. They have been around the block a few times now. Therefore, if they have no plans to raise before the EWT, they would just say so. A raise is inevitable and the only question is at what discount. If previous raises are anything to go by, then the discount will be significant, especially if a large amount of funding will be needed.
I doubt very much the Rig is going to generate any funds in Q2, such that those monies can go towards the costs of the EWT in Q3. I think if anyone was planning a drilling campaign in Q2 and wanted to use the Rig, we would likely have heard about that by now. Also, with the issues that He1 have had with this Rig, would they even want to risk hiring it out to a third party at this stage. Do they even have all the ancillaries that a Rig contractor needs. It's one thing not having these when your drilling your own project and having to order them in, but quite another if it's a third party who you have contracted the Rig to. Not sure He1 are quite ready for that myself.
Overall, I remain of the view that the best time to re enter here is after they have the finances sorted out for the EWT. Until the risk of a raise is gone, it's hard to see the share price going on a sustained run in the interim period. If they are going to raise, then hopefully they will get it done sooner rather than later, because the lower the share price falls, the more painful the eventual placing. All imo and dyor
If you believe the chartists this could drop to 0.87p and then consolidate; what that ignores is the possibility of a raise in coming weeks or months. EWT due in Q3 (not specified when) and anticipate that they will need to raise money in advance of that and another appraisal well. How much? Various estimates from £zero (grossly optimistic in my view) to £8m. Though they might rent out the drill in the intervening period which could, conceivably, fund the EWT but not the subsequent appraisal well.
There is the possibility though that in the coming weeks and before any raise the BoD will release the results of their basin modelling and a revised resource estimates. On the assumption that these are positive we could see the sp rise considerably (my view), though some consider that this is unlikely to do much without the results of the EWT - as it is the EWT and possibly the subsequent appraisal well results that will determine whether Itumbula is a "commercial discovery" and that the basin modelling and resource estimates, on their own, will not do much. I think that the EWT will simply corroborate the model and resource estimates not determine them, so these could be pivotal.
It will need the basin modelling and resource estimates to allow the BoD to determine the future work programme, so until they have that information, logically, they do not know how much they need to raise and hence the raise will come after this is complete. There is the risk though that the BoD will announce the resource estimates alongside a raise and the market and shareholders will not get to see those figures until he funding partners have already jumped in.
If we manage to confirm a commercial find the company then have the minor (NOT) hurdle of finding $50 - 100m to fund a production facility but have already stated that they have been in preliminary discussion with JV and offtake partners to fund or part fund this. Though of course this is all contingent on that commercial discovery being announced post EWT and maybe the subsequent appraisal well drill.
Hope that helps. Oters will have a different perspective on this of course but this is my view and is as dispassionate and balanced a view as I can offer.
I DO however think that the risk - reward ratio is tremendously in it's favour - and that is with and without a raise; I have got money on the side to take advantage of a dilution if there is one but still have a sizeable involvement because, if the basin modelling and resource estimates are as I hope, then this could fly in front of any raise. (In my opinion of course!).
New to this share, not invested yet. Only come across it by chance. Done some research and it looks promising although highly speculative. ‘You have to be in it to win it’, as the saying goes. High risk but high rewards possible. Unsure when (if!) to dip my toe in the water. Seems to be on a bit of a slide since recent highs. May wait for the sp to stabilise, not brave enough to jump in quite yet. Under 1p? Who knows?! No one can accurately predict. One thing I can say is that this is probably the most active board I’ve ever come across! Enjoying browsing the chats here. GLA and Happy Easter all invested. CJ.