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Interesting points:

📌 What Helix has announced since February

All items below are confirmed RNS releases:

• 23 Feb 2026 — Successful first helium gas production InvestEgate

• 02–03 Mar 2026 — Proposed placing + Result of placing (8.8m shares at 25p) InvestEgate

• 06 Mar 2026 — Helix expands Rudyard leasehold (land position growth) InvestEgate

• 09 Mar 2026 — Company update (general operational progress) InvestEgate

• 26 Mar 2026 — Annual Report & Full Year Results InvestEgate

• 17–24 Apr 2026 — Holdings RNS + Notice of AGM (corporate governance, not operational) InvestEgate

So the company has been communicating — just not with the kind of operational detail investors are waiting for (e.g., production rates, sales, offtake agreements).

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🧭 Why it feels like silence despite these RNS releases

1. No new operational data since production began

The last operationally meaningful update was 23 February, confirming first helium production. Since then, updates have been administrative or financial rather than technical. This creates the impression of silence even though RNS activity continues.

2. Early production phases often produce little “news‑worthy” data

Once a plant starts up, companies typically spend weeks stabilising flow rates, tuning equipment, and validating gas purity. These steps are essential but rarely meet AIM’s “material information” threshold.

3. Offtake negotiations are confidential

Helix previously indicated that offtake partners would visit the site after production began. Such negotiations can take months and cannot be disclosed until signed. This is a common quiet period for new producers.

4. AIM rules discourage unnecessary updates

AIM companies must avoid releasing non‑material or promotional updates. If operations are proceeding normally, silence is often compliance rather than a red flag.

5. The company may be preparing a consolidated operational update

It’s common for small-cap resource companies to wait until they can report:

• stable production rates

• helium purity results

• revenue commencement

• offtake agreements

All at once, rather than drip‑feeding partial information.

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🧩 What this means for you as an investor

• The next meaningful catalyst is likely to be:• production ramp‑up data

• first sales

• an offtake agreement

• The company is active, but not releasing new operational detail.

• No negative operational RNS has been issued — which is itself informative.

Fingers crossed for the red dot we've all been waiting for soon. GLA. CJ

Part 2:

📉 1. One‑Third of Global Helium Supply Is Already Offline

• Qatar’s helium production was abruptly halted when the blockade began, removing around one‑third of global supply in a single event.

• Iranian strikes also damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan facilities, further reducing output. A Kansas geologist notes that about a third of global supply is “just shut down right now.”

• This is the largest helium supply disruption in modern history.

📈 2. Prices Have Already Spiked Dramatically

• Spot helium prices have risen 70–100% within a week of the closure.

• POLITICO reports that helium spot prices have doubled since the war began.

• Bank of America estimates spot prices are up 40–100% within weeks.

Because most helium is sold via long‑term contracts, the spot market reacts first—but if the closure persists, contract prices will be renegotiated upward, and shortages will spread globally.

⚠️ 3. Suppliers Are Preparing to Declare Force Majeure

• Industry experts warn that if the closure continues, suppliers may declare force majeure, cancelling long‑term contracts.

• This would trigger:

• Rationing

• Prioritization of critical sectors (MRI, semiconductors, aerospace)

• Severe price escalation for all non‑critical uses

This is the mechanism that turns a price spike into a full‑scale global shortage.

🏭 4. Downstream Industries Are Already Feeling Strain

Semiconductors

• Ras Laffan—the world’s largest helium production hub—has been largely offline since early March.

• Asian chip supply chains are already reporting early production impacts.

• South Korea, which imports 64.7% of its helium from Qatar, is the most exposed.

Medical Imaging

• Hospitals rely on helium to cool MRI magnets. Shortages are already being reported in some regions.

Industrial Manufacturing

• Welding, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing are all experiencing tightening supply and rising costs.

⏳ 5. The Longer the Closure, the Worse the Damage

Experts warn that:

• Even if the strait reopened today, helium production in Qatar would take months to restart due to war‑related shutdowns.

• If the closure continues, the global supply chain could take years to fully recover.

This means the helium market is not just experiencing a temporary shock—it is entering a structural crisis.

📌 Bottom Line: What the Weeks‑Long Closure Means for Helium

Because the Strait of Hormuz has already been closed for weeks:

• One‑third of global helium supply is already offline.

• Spot prices have already doubled and are likely to rise further.

• Contract cancellations and rationing are increasingly likely.

• Semiconductor, medical, and industrial sectors are already feeling strain.

• Recovery will take months to years, even if the strait reopens soon.

Helium is now in a state of active global shortage, not just elevated prices.

Part 1:

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already triggered a severe, active helium supply crisis, because Qatar’s exports—normally about one‑third of global supply—have been unable to leave the Gulf for several weeks. The situation is no longer hypothetical; the effects are unfolding in real time.

🇺🇸 Additional Impact of a U.S. Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

The fact that the United States is now directly enforcing the closure dramatically amplifies the severity and duration of the helium crisis. A U.S. blockade has several unique consequences:

1. The closure becomes prolonged and predictable — in the worst possible way.

Unlike temporary disruptions caused by regional conflict, a U.S. naval blockade is:

• Deliberate

• Sustained

• Backed by overwhelming military capability.

This means shipping companies, insurers, and LNG/helium producers must assume the strait will remain closed indefinitely, not days or weeks. That expectation alone drives:

• Higher risk premiums

• Contract cancellations

• Long‑term supply reallocation

• Permanent price resets.

2. No tanker will attempt to run a U.S. blockade.

Even during regional conflicts, some tankers attempt limited transits.

Under a U.S. blockade:

• Zero commercial vessels will enter the strait

• Insurers void all coverage

• Ports effectively shut down.

This guarantees that Qatar’s helium exports fall to zero, not just “reduced.”

3. Qatar cannot reroute helium — pipelines do not exist.

Oil producers like Saudi Arabia can bypass Hormuz using pipelines. Qatar cannot:

• No LNG pipelines

• No helium pipelines

• No alternative export terminals.

A U.S. blockade therefore guarantees:

• Total loss of Qatari helium supply

• No partial workaround

• No short‑term recovery path

4. The blockade deters repair crews and restarts.

Even if Ras Laffan facilities were ready to restart:

• Repair crews cannot safely enter

• LNG trains cannot resume

• Helium liquefiers cannot operate.

A U.S. blockade freezes the entire upstream and downstream system.

5. The blockade escalates geopolitical risk premiums.

Markets now price in:

• Risk of U.S.–Iran conflict

• Risk of attacks on Gulf infrastructure

• Risk of retaliatory strikes on LNG facilities

• Risk of long‑term Gulf instability.

Helium, being already supply‑constrained, reacts violently to this.

6. The blockade signals that the crisis will not end soon.

When the U.S. Navy enforces a closure, the global helium market interprets it as:

• A structural disruption

• Not a temporary wartime anomaly.

This pushes:

• Spot prices higher

• Contract prices higher

• Long‑term supply planning into crisis mode.

Out of interest, I asked Copilot why helium is not on the U.S. Critical Minerals List:

Helium isn’t on the U.S. Critical Minerals List today largely because of how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluates “criticality,” and because of flawed or incomplete data used in recent assessments. The short version: the models said helium wasn’t risky enough, even though industry experts argue the models were wrong.

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🧩 Core Reasons Helium Was Removed

1. USGS concluded helium didn’t meet its thresholds for supply risk and economic importance

Helium was included on the 2018 list, but the USGS’s 2021 assessment—used for the 2022 update—found that helium did not cross the required thresholds for supply-chain vulnerability or economic impact. This led to its removal. akapenergy.com

2. Government export data overstated U.S. helium supply security

Independent analyses (e.g., AKAP Energy) showed that U.S. export data used by the USGS was significantly inflated—actual exports were likely less than half of what was reported. Overstated exports made the U.S. appear more self‑sufficient than it really was, artificially lowering helium’s “risk” score. regulatio... +1

3. The 2025 draft list still excludes helium due to modeling quirks

The updated methodology evaluates one‑year trade disruptions and estimates their GDP impact. For helium, the model produced an absurd outcome: it mapped helium’s economic importance mainly to sporting goods, not to MRI machines, semiconductors, aerospace, defense, or quantum computing—industries that actually depend on it.

Because of this mis‑mapping, helium’s modeled GDP impact came out to roughly –$1 million, below the >$2 million threshold for inclusion. LinkedIn

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🧨 Why the decision is controversial

Industry groups, researchers, and some policymakers argue that helium clearly meets the Energy Act of 2020 definition of a critical mineral: essential to national security and vulnerable to supply disruption. They point to:

• No substitutes for helium in MRI cooling, semiconductor fabrication, aerospace operations, and quantum research.

• Fragile global supply, concentrated in Qatar, Algeria, and Russia, with chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

• U.S. domestic vulnerabilities, including the sell‑off of the Federal Helium Reserve and dependence on single major facilities like ExxonMobil’s LaBarge plant.

• Recurring global helium shortages that have already disrupted hospitals and chipmakers. LinkedIn +1

Some public officials have criticized the removal, arguing it effectively concedes strategic leverage to major foreign suppliers. regulations.gov

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🧭 Bottom Line

Helium isn’t on the U.S. Critical Minerals List because the USGS’s current methodology—based on short‑term GDP modeling and flawed export data—underestimates helium’s real strategic importance and supply risk. Many experts believe this is a serious misclassification and are pushing for helium’s reinstatement.

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