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With the AGM coming up it would be timely to understand what Hardide are changing to unlock the revenue growth. Refreshed culture, strategies, short term revenue, new partnerships, entreprenuiral drive. Really would be great to hear what is changing to unlock the potential before Hardide simply runs out road.
Don’t be fooled, those two recent trades @ 6.22 marked as sells are both BUYS.
Ex ITM CEO Graham Cooley has increased his stake from 3.1% to 4.14%
Looks like it’s slipped through unnoticed this time. Last week the SP rose on the initial news.
07-Mar-24 13:36:46 6.29 12,361 777.51 O
Looks like a sell but Is my buy.
New CEO will make an AGM statement later this month on the 25th. Hopefully it will be more positive. I’m sure he will want to make his mark. He has a background of business turnarounds and transformation.
Some pretty impressive validation (even more than from Dibs lol) from these stakes by serious folk
does this attractive tech have commercial traction? Really won't take much incremental sales, for positive snowball
In some ways, it doesn't much matter what your average entry price is (within reason!)
it's largely a binary play ...essentially 0p or 50p++
I’m still substantially down, average of circa 9.7p. I thought that was cheap when I bought!
I prefer to use EV to MC as a valuation metric and on that basis it’s currently £4m which, imho, is a snip. Nothing wrong with the company or product. It’s management lethargy that’s been the issue. I think that is finally being addressed now with a more proactive commercial focus.
We’ll see. If all else fails this is a hands on TO target for a bigger coatings company.
You're on to a good 'un
Dr Graham Cooley who recently stepped down as CEO of ITM Power has taken a stake in tiny Hardide.
Hmmmm interesting.
Cannot challenge "illiquid stock" today
It appears to me that the recent dilution can only be blamed on the FD and the company"s financial advisors. Sounds as if the auditors refused to certify the accounts unless the company raised more money.
It has been obvious for a long time that the company needs more financial leeway.
Hardide has a great platform, technology, customers (Airbus, Schlumberger, ExxonMobil, Graco, Halliburton, General Electric) well invested furnaces and delivery capability. I lost trust and confidence in the previous Chairman. Too much hubris, lack of honesty and waffle. I hope the new Chairman can refresh the board, management culture and drive the commercial revenues. Broadly speaking increasingly revenues from £5.5m to £6.5m ensures group is cashflow break even and £7.5m we are in profit with some resilience for customer destocking. An additional £2m of revenue within 18 months and Hardide will be generate a 5 to 10x return from current prices. Flipside is anaemic customer growth, more destocking, emergency equity and massive dilution.
EV here is now around £3m. Yes £3m. Small wonder there has barely been a sell since the placing last week. You’d have to be rather desperate to sell at these going bust prices.
I’m not going to set out the entire investment case, from my standpoint, in this post. But it’s convinced me to stick around and probably add more to average down.
The fact is this company possesses unique and, yes, disruptive technology. Yes I can hear all the counter arguments… never made a profit, poor management, lack of commercial focus, purely R&D Co., snails pace progress. All of those things are true to some extent. But the past is what it is, the Past.
What we have now is a company that is in rather a good place re their technology. It’s unique. It has a very large moat now. No one else can do what they can do. They have no direct competitors who can compete with them on a level playing field with their technology.
It just needs a management team that can unlock the value and potential.
I saw several promising snippets in the recent results that might have gone unnoticed.
I’ll share them in future posts.
One thing I do know is this company is def worth substantially more than £3m. Absolutely absurd when you look at the garbage out there on AIM that’s valued at multiples of that price.
No matter what your view of Hardides progress this is NOT a bucket shop stock with bucket shop placings though the recent placing resembled one with a scandalous 21% discount to the SP. Disgusting IMHO. However, that said, investors in the placing are not, imo, going to be able to shift their shares even if they wanted to. The reason? This stock is extremely illiquid. They simply wouldn’t be able to offload on the market unless they could negotiate an off market bulk sale. And why would you when you have taken the shares at a going bust price?
No I don’t see overhang as an issue here. The issue is the fundamentals. Can they get the sales to drive the revenue back up? I don’t see a lot of scope for further downside here. It’s now a classic recovery play at this price.
17m placing shares
how many sticky? 6m?
we've seen best part of 1m already snapped up in the (secondary) market
i'm edging around to a buy...but feel pretty confident the overhang will limit sp rise
John Peter Lobbenberg - an 84 year old former Chartered Accountant (not normally the kind of profile that take huge risks!)
Also previously ran a Portfolio Management group.
This company is currently priced to go bust. I’m roughly 50% down with an average of 9.75p
But tempted to average down because they will either get taken out or recover, or both.
20-30% discount to placement price
I'm not so confident in this case: the play is decent; the possibility of a bid lurks; and they didn't issue that many new shares
tp 4p
This company has been run in a criminally incompetent manner for years. It's little more than a lifestyle play for a few people at the top. It has NEVER been self sustaining and keeps coming back for more funding to maintain the lifestyle support. This should never have been allowed to float.
Given the placing that is going on and the current share price is there a danger that this company is now "ripe for picking"? With the price so low and given the unique technology that HDD has does this leave the company open to a takeover. Danger in my mind is that someone could pick this up so cheaply and leave existing shareholders well out of pocket. I still believe in what HDD do and want to see us all share in their success but the way they are currently running the business surely raises a lot of issues/questions. Hopefully we can all weather this storm but I really think the company is so undervalued it really is looking like a steal!! Continued good fortune to one and all. Rgds, S
Late in the day placing announced and closed by 6pm bookbuild @ 4.5p
Maybe it will fall to 4p neil777
130 000 fees for it????
It is very simple. Mr Chairman please do whatever you think is required to refresh the Board and Management. As shareholders we are tired of endless disappointment. 30% dilution and 16% placing costs is disgusting but reflects poor performance over many years. Please just fill up the furnaces, turnaround the operational performance and failing of previous Chairman.
This thread didn't age well
A placing at 4p all to raise 800k.. disgusting and AIM is lethal
New low of 5p today -8.7% but 10% spread .
AIM mugs pis.
Interesting to see appetite to mop up that sale