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Its all planned well in advance, many posts alluded to this ..
On a day, when the company gives some favourable news the sp, generally if not invariably, achieves downward trajectory. Today, in the absence of any news, it’s gone up by 7-8% both at HKSE and LSE. Nearly 45k AIM shares traded within the first hour. Not a big rise in the sp but it’s not negligible either.
Any reason/s?
An opportunity to showcase their entire ‘assets’ in a major venue. Nice efforts by the team to display their poster presentations. Keenly waiting to see the final results from the global Multi centre clinical trials for surufatinib.
The AACR presentations are not what we might expect….. early investigations for 3 new candidates and several for surufatinib in combination or different types of cancer. Very much experimental stuff.
Still waiting for the Sovlep results to be presented in detail….I think they said that would be mid-year.
HCM has made good on its pipeline promises so far this year….it now only has a Taz bridging study and a possible Savo submission highlighted this year.
There are now a number of submissions with the Regulatory Authorities.
Fruq - GC in China, CRC in EU and JPN, with Sintilimab BTD in China
Sovlep -
Savo - confirmatory and new indication for MET-14 EXON skipping.
That represents a significant boost to sales by mid 2025…
To do list - get a partner for Sovlep and start globalised development.
..ruse didn't last long, *good effort though..
* terrible effort, more transparent than a sheet of air..
lol
— nda accepted and both fru*****inib and sintilimab granted priority review, following breakthrough therapy designation in july 2023 —
— first regulatory filing for fru*****inib for use in combination with a leading immune checkpoint inhibitor —
par for the course, prop traders mark it down on any good news, try and dampen momentum while working buy orders.
it would be nice if they marked it down properly, then we can all load up lol
Caixin survey shows China’s March factory activity at its most robust in 13 months
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/01/china-april-2024-caixin-manufacturing-pmi.html
CKHH is having a management reshuffle whether it will mean anything for HCM remains to be see. HCM did get a bit more of a mention in the annual results as it is one of the bright spots within the conglomerate. That said, HCM is reported as a financial asset alongside CKHH investment in a Canadian oil producer (it used to hold a larger share of a smaller producer and merged it about 5 years ago). If CKHH needs funds these stakes are most likely for sale, however with gearing of 16% this seems unnecessary at present.
Commentators suggested some asset shuffling within the CK Group might result from the management changes - although there are no new faces at the top table.
Apart from Mr To representing CKHH and Ms Shih as a further director, HCM seems to be structured to operate independently. There are many pharma cos under development in China, consolidation will happen/can be expected to be encouraged by Beijing to create national champions…..HCM needs to be part of that discussion.
China will make it easier to move capital in and out of the country and promote financial market deregulation, a senior forex regulator said on Friday, as Beijing seeks to woo foreign investors amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/29/china-will-further-enhance-capital-account-opening-fx-official-says.html
Thank you Jatw for your opinion.
More than 20 year old “budding” pharma company. based in a country with stable governance and economy. 5000 personnel with 1200 working in oncology and immunology. 3 oncology drugs already in the pharma market in China, one is marketed in the USA, pending approval in Europe. Finally, attractive pipeline and a healthy positive balance in the bank. Market value a mere 3 billion!
Yet, no news of ‘expression of interest’ for takeover (or merger) from bigger companies.
(Possibly, that is the only hope for long term holders)
Naive treatment does mean no previous treatment - I suspect surgical removal of the tumour would also be acceptable within this definition as it does not involve pharmaceutical treatment.
No indication of priority review (maybe to come?) but we can anticipate approval in mid 2025 and new revenue in H2 25. The commercialisation would be with AZ under the licensing deal.
You ceased to have a short position of 1% or more in the shares, or the percentage level of your short position in such shares decreased because:
any other event (you must briefly describe the relevant event in the Supplementary Information box)
Yes, good news indeed, also noted Deutsche Bank have moved to a small net long position, this is unusual for them.
https://sc.hkexnews.hk/gb/di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSForm2.aspx?fn=CS20240322E00161&sa2=an&sid=344192&corpn=HUTCHMED+(China)+Ltd.&sd=28%2f03%2f2023&ed=28%2f03%2f2024&cid=0&sa1=cl&scsd=28%2f03%2f2023&sced=28%2f03%2f2024&sc=13&src=MAIN&lang=EN&g_lang=en&
Another achievement! Market response is as anticipated!! Nothing to be surprised at.
If approved by NMPA as therapy for the new indication, who will have marketing rights? AZN or HCM?
‘…..Naive patients …., does it mean as primary therapy?
Just in case not picked up on news feed here;
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hutchmed-announces-savolitinib-snda-accepted-000000806.html
NASDAQ shorts at 12 month or more lows, HK short positions dropping nicely first big drop of 20% seen for a while.
We now have interest rates cuts on both sides of the pond, HCM had a small spike on Fed news.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
My own view; this will do more for HCM than any other factor thus far.
Amones, from what I can tell AZN has been acquiring in areas that are novel but adjacent to their existing businesses.
They get new capabilities and can then explore combinations with their other therapies. HCM may be producing better/ safer compounds but if you already own similar assets the incremental value may not be there to justify the 5/6bn CKHH would want to sell up. However a share based merger when you can then take forward the better products and deprioritise parts of the research programmes would add value to the combined entity.
Innovent results are tomorrow….it carries a higher MV and has a larger pipeline but makes larger losses. The company strategies seem to be similar and they are at a similar position of moving towards sustainable profitability. It will be interesting to see how the results are assessed in the market..
I think we know the answer is four letters…….CKHH…..
The assets and the pipeline can be evaluated and a number suggested for a deal, but unless it is a very large number (2.5-3x current) I doubt CKHH would entertain it.
It will be interesting to compare the assets/ pipeline/ number of scientific staff/ ongoing clinical studies of various drug candidates/ research and production facilities of HCM and the two companies that have been taken over.
What might the reasons for HCM not being (at least, until now) considered for takeover? Is it the “Grand” market value of 3 billion USD/ the pipeline unattractive??
..from a company that HCM is currently partners with, who have expressed a strong commitment to China, building out new offices and R & D facilities, not to mention oncology portfolio.
Two deals in one month..
Astra seems to be buying the Company when it wants the lead product…….it has to be that way in rare diseases, and I expect as the treatments extend out into rarer cancer treatments.
The deal with HCM is from a different time in AZ’s history. I suspect that if Savo was being offered up today, they would try to take the whole company.
I see HCMs future being a larger China entity and its drugs licensed for use where it is politically difficult for China based organisations to operate. AZ / Lilly etc may need to split their assets into China / non-China (perhaps US/ RoW) entities at some point with cross licensing arrangements if it becomes operationally difficult to be a player in US and China markets.
The deal is AstraZeneca’s second this month after it agreed last week to buy Amolyt Pharma for $1.05 billion to shore up its rare disease portfolio.
The drugmaker will pay $21 per Fusion share, a premium of more than 97% to the U.S.-listed company’s closing price on Monday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/astrazeneca-bets-on-new-cancer-treatments-with-2-billion-fusion-pharma-purchase.html