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I understand the sentiment but I hope they have the patience (and the patients)
It’s nothing but a crooked and desperate effort by the market manipulators.
The UK MHRA can approve marketing of drugs that already have an EC MAA in 3 months from EC approval….it then takes NICE a while to approve use in the NHS ( a year and then 3 months for funding to be made available)….so the majority of the UK isn’t getting Fruq* until 2026 atleast…maybe Takeda wont even bother with the UK market.
Only the shareholders in this company could think that a positive CHMP opinion is a reason to sell!
The EC now considers the opinion, and has up to 67 working days to confirm the marketing authorisation. So in 3 months time Takeda should be able to start selling Fruq* across the EU and a few other territories. The number of new cases across the EU is 3x the USA market. The centres involved in FRESCO-2 will be ready to roll at the end of July. There should be a decent volume of EU sales in 2024.
Is my chronology correct here:
This morning up 2% in London
Positive RNS released in USA
London down 5%?
Only asking, as it seems unusually perverse even for this company...
Thanks again for a detailed explanation and for emailing the investors’ relations at HCM. Hope they respond to your query. (In my experience, getting a response from the IR is not as straightforward as it used to be during Mr Hogg’s period)
Waiting for Takeda’s results scheduled for 9th May.
Looking again at the sales of Orpathys, Q1 23 was a weak period in the run up to NRDL inclusion. The AZ 43% rise is not that different to the YOY sales increase between 2022 and 2023 reported by HCM, so it is more of a continuation of the sales levels seen in H2.
HCM captured about 5/8ths of the sales last year in royalty and manufacturing fees. Continuing Yuan weakness against the USD may not mean there is much difference in the overall run rate in the HY results and the royalty will continue. The AZ pipeline does indicate there are several data read outs due this year, those will not kick in until 2026 as they will spend 2025 in the review process.
Takeda reports on 9 May and will give a full 3month sales figure for Fruq*in the US. This is the more significant revenue to watch in the short term..
I wrote to the ir email encouraging a quarterly revenue update…..I think it is important they demonstrate they are on track for the pharma revenue this year. Even more important next year they may want to demonstrate the effects of 2024 product approvals on revenues. It is the year they hope/expect to be sustainably cash positive from the Pharma business.
Typo error; ‘It will be nice..’
Jatw, thanks for the information about raise in the sales of Orpathys. As a result, is HCM expected to gain an improved royalty from AZN?
It is be nice if HCM releases an update. Hope they do so.
SS, your optimism can become real if the 184 billion company shows an interest in the 2.8 billion company!!
AZ has reported Q1 Orpathys sales up 43% (48% at CER).
This continues and extends the increases reported by HCM.
Can only be good news….(Takeda reports 2024 sales in its Q4 results on 9 May)…..HCM should consider a quarter 1 sales update.
Looking a bit more positive of late which is most encouraging. From here it only needs to double....
Sorry the reference to HCM should be FRUSICA-1
gsk has submitted a supplementary biologics application to be assessed by 24/08/24 by fda, this seems to cover a similar population to the endometrial cancer submission for fru*****inib + sintilimab.
the gsk study is called ruby, the results of both studies are to be published. as i follow both companies i will update when more is known.
Its very likely UK and Eurozone along with Asia will end up with declining interest rates on the back of receding inflation, US being the odd dude out.
Its a long time since this scenario last played out, but given the chronic undervaluation's of UK stocks this can only act as a tailwind ..
FTSE once again pushes through 8000 mark, several global markets making new highs too!
Its a bull run in all but name..
I think the BB rules may be different in HK, I think there is a mandate in the company articles that allows the Board to make a BB and to hold shares in treasury…..they do this to meet share options and other staff awards rather than just issue new shares and this is relatively minor in terms of $ values.
I assume that a major BB program would need to be announced to the market and purchases disclosed regularly…they would also need to buy from CKHH in a connected transaction to maintain the % holding so it would be quite a complex disclosure environment and would not happen quietly….
(touched ‘post message’ before adding “?” )
If the company is buying back, at what time scale, it should be made known to the shareholders?
Quietly buying back
The Board will need to formulate a dividend / leverage/ capital policy and be prepared to implement it in 2025/26. I think they were asked this by an analyst at the FY results call.
They currently have about USD 800m / £600m/ HKD 6bn in cash / equivalents of which I suspect 50-60% could be considered surplus to current operational needs
A hk$1 dividend (10p) would cost about £85m
A buy back of 5% of shares £125m
M&A includes product in-licensing, they have o/s commitments for Taz in this respect, but have headroom for further deals.
China was encouraging companies to enhance their value…..and not to sit on cash….
I dont expect anything to change this year.
Bit of divergence between the other two stocks on my watch list, Innovent and Beigene.
Should we start lobbying the board for a divi with all this cash, I would rather this than an acquisition.
It is good to see the sp maintaining its position. Hopefully the Clinical data presented at the AACR which concluded yesterday might have ‘gone well and received appropriate attention’.
Agreed, US inflation is proving 'sticky' although many inflationary trends are down, all the signs of a top.
China US relations appear to be on the mend, sort of if a little fractious.
I still think M & A is the most likely outcome here, so await with patience ..
Should have said 9 May for Takeda results. TAK is listed in Japan and US, and no time set out on the Takeda website .
1pencil - US inflation higher is not good news re outlook for US / HK interest rate expectations and USD strength.
With most HCM sales in Yuan they will be down by a few percent when converted to USD - although returns from the $800m cash pile will be higher to partly offset the profit effect..
Takeda reports its Q4 sales in about 4 weeks - but they will already know the value achieved in Jan-Mar. They “sold” $15m in the 7 weeks post FDA approval during their Q3. Not sure that all of this will be in active prescription as there is likely an element of stocking up the distribution pipeline. Say 10m was stocking and 5m dispensed, then we could expect those sales to recur each month plus an increase each month (Jan 5+5, Feb 10+5, Mar 15+5) would get to $45m Q4 sales and these would continue to increase. If they are ahead of this they will be doing very well indeed. But lets see.