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Thank you for your interesting posting re H&T. I have in recent weeks increased my holdings significantly in both H&T and Ramsdens. I see both these companies as great buys at current levels in my mind its a no brainer to invest in both these companies. The financials look great to me with significant earnings per share growth over the years yet the share price has hardly moved hence the very low price earnings ratio.
I have little doubt that this will head to 400p+ circa 12 months.
- Resolution of the FCA investigation on the small portfolio of high interest loans that HAT were involved in for 2019 and previous years should give the market much more certainty. I'd expect any "fines" to be small.
- More presence given TO of The Money Shop outlets.
- Forex anticipated to increase with foreign holidays (Hays does not provide forex + Thomas Cook closed = less competitors).
- Gold prices - holding up.
- Rent renewal for outlets with lease renewal - reduction across portfolio of shops.
- Most recent TU stated "exceed expectations"
- End of lockdown = more customers seeking to spend = higher increase of demand for their jewellery (which was closed during lockdown) + pawn services.
Enjoy dividends whilst you wait for a recovery.
Only watching here also, holding RFX from 138p and not too concerned about the speed of recent gains made. Half wondering whether HAT will stage a similar bounce in the next few months as we open up and people go out and spend more.
Well that’s the mystery buyer cleared up for us thanks to the RNS
Looks like over £1 million of shares were bought in 2 trades earlier - that's way above the norm for H&T
Further review -
- Although limited overseas hols - forex wise - beneficiaries of the demise of Thomas Cook, will include HAT and RFX.
- Abermarle and Bond's closure = less competition = fortifies HAT's no.1 position as UK's no.1 pawnbroker.
- Small independent pawnbrokers must have had a hard time during covid / potential closures.
- Shops coming to rent review will surely be negotiated downwards = reduced rental expense.
Overall, post covid, IMO HAT will come out stronger than they went in furthering their market leading position and with the perfect macro environment for them to thrive.
To Plod /
To the question "In the 25/1/21 trading update the company said they “expect an outcome within previous guidance” with respect to the FCA review but for the life of me I cannot find anywhere in their statements they provide even a ball park figure of any redress they may owe. Over the 6 year period under review they have made 11 million in revenue so could it be possible they have to repay all of that? If anyone has any sources I would appreciate it if you could share. I’ve been watching this share for ages now and really want to buy in its just this review is really putting me off. Thanks."
From March 2020 - Simon Thompson - Investor's Chronicle - "...It’s worth flagging up that 17 per cent of H&T’s personal loan book of £16.6m consists of near prime loans and only 10 per cent is high-cost short-term credit (HCSTC) unsecured loans, all of which will mature by the year-end. H&T continues to work closely with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) following a regulatory review of certain aspects and files of the HCSTC business."
For further details, you may need to go back to each respective financial year to determine the HCSTC. GL
I have asked and they just refer back to the Nov 2019 announcement as the previous guidance (even though this is not at all clear what the guidance actually is!). I may be being naive, but I took the CFO, who has been with the firm a long time, buying a couple of times late last year as a sign that they believe it will be manageable (which is also what they said at the time).
In an interview just after the announcement, JN (the outgoing CEO) seemed very surprised that there was an issue at all. H&T has only been mentioned on debt camel once or twice since 2019. Other than some initial costs they are not planning on putting any provisions into last years accounts for this . I get the impression that we will not hear for a while yet.
Without the review hanging over it I am sure that the sp would be higher. I guess you could hedge your bets, get some now and then top up later (probably at a higher price) once things are more clear.
In the 25/1/21 trading update the company said they “expect an outcome within previous guidance” with respect to the FCA review but for the life of me I cannot find anywhere in their statements they provide even a ball park figure of any redress they may owe. Over the 6 year period under review they have made 11 million in revenue so could it be possible they have to repay all of that? If anyone has any sources I would appreciate it if you could share. I’ve been watching this share for ages now and really want to buy in its just this review is really putting me off. Thanks.
like how this moving , different to ggp which rns expected Thursday and was down around 6% this morning ,starting to move back up some
Possibly, retail jewellery will have done well but typically Ramsdens has more weighting in its revenues to fx than HAT.
Both will take a year or two to fully recover but offer good long term prospects. Numis has HAT's revenues at just under 2019's in two years, I think that this is rather conservative as HAT expanded a lot towards the end of that period, although its loan business is likely to be more restrained going forward than at that time.
I Took the chance to buy Ramsdens. Same industry, tipped in Investors chronicle and yet to re rate!!
You will imagine h and t results will also be reflected in Ramsden announcement
Numis reiterate buy on H&T, with target price of 410p
Way better than I expected, I hope to see a good SP recovery from here
'Following stronger than anticipated November and December trading, despite lockdown measures, H&T expects the full-year profit before tax to be ahead of market expectations.'
Pledge book has now stopped reducing which is good.
Net cash is up 4M over the two months since the Nov trading update.
Lots of potential for HT to recovery quickly over the next year.
FFS (fat finger syndrome).
Cancelled Trade.
Can anybody explain the last four trades yesterday, 19th January? 4 lots worth 69.3k GBP, two of them marked with negative volumes. What is a negative volume?
RNS from Sept-
Richard Withers
10,000
267p
RNS Nov-
Richard Withers
10,000
227.4p
@Monkshood Where did you get the info on the CFO please? SWS has no data on him other than his name: Richard Withers (unfortunate nickname). What did he buy at?
Apparently, the CEO owns 2.85% (£2.85m)
1 single share uncrossing trade at the end of the day drags the share price down significantly after buying all day - what's going on? See this quite a lot with H&T.
I would not expect the CFO to have been buying shares if he thought that the FCA was going to cause any major problem; they have had a year to look at this now .
Given the rise since he purchased his last tranche, it may be worth us having a whip round and sending him some money to purchase some more.....
Thanks, can only agree. There was steady constant selling of blocks throughout and I wonder if that was linked to Artemis or some other institution selling regardless of the value. I'm any case I'll pleased to have held my nerve and started to make a return on some of my purchases. As long as the FSA outcome isn't a disaster that will probably spike the shares up again once dealt with.
I totally agree jpgould, I have tried to get into HAT since June 3x now, once at 330p during June, did not do much and sentiment was not good so I sold off at break even. Then again just before trade update in Aug 20 at 317p, then it slipped to 293p. Dodgy SP action - most likely due to Artemis overhang in stock. Thereafter, it went down to 252p where I could not help myself again and bought into it given that it has not been at that level for 4 years min. Yet again negative sentiment.
It's mainly attributable to lockdown. PIs viewed HAT as almost a retail shop so steered away. Could not believe my eyes when it went down to 208. 208 - come on! Having made a cross read from RFX the same day, I called up a local H & T to enquire whether they were open during lockdown 2.0. I immediately bought some. 1 hour later it hat shot up 10% because of the late RNS (nice!). Yeah so crazy now that it is back to 280. What was all that about!!! So PIs were primarily concerned about lockdown. As for FCA, exposure is not so big me thinks.
If the market accurately reflects the sum of all knowledge of the value of a stock then the last 2 months have been bizarre. I continue to hold but I feel for people shaken out of their holdings by the recent market movement. You expect that from some penny stock rollercoaster not something as "boring" as pawnbroking!
Quoted Companies are obliged to change their auditors every 5 years. It should have been better presented by their PR department, as obviously was taken badly by investors / the market, but really it was not news.