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Rogue looks pretty worthless after reviewing admission doc. Only one earning on that is Hamish with a FT role / salary and 3.7M options. Unless he returns that to GUN of course..........maybe I’m wrong?
Cheers APR. So not too dissimilar figures. Either way you look at it Low6 should be the big driver here. Looking forward to listing and hopefully a little surprise from Rogue Baron
Market fairly weak at the moment so its a good time to buy into things that have dropped considerably, including GUN. What with the vaccine roll out and things generally looking up I can only think sentiment will improve from now on. Just bought back into GUN.
@staffnumber Yes I have calculated NAV previously. but not since Rincon IPO'd back in Dec-20. Looking through I'm happy with your numbers, but I think cash position is slightly higher as GUN is low OPEX costs
Cash = £1.5m (£1.1m cash Nov-20 +£163k Angold +£200k Jan-21 warrants +£55k Warrants Feb-21 +£67k warrants Mar-21 less £85k more Rincon)
Investment NAV = £5.75m
Enterprise = £7.25m
MCap = £6.77m so 7.1% discount to Enterprise NAV +cash
My expectations:
> Low6 cost £265k (2% holding) and my expectation is minimum 400% gain or £1m profit on Q2 IPO
> Rogue Baron current NAV £1.8m (28.5% & £111k CLN) and IPO at £5m but illiquid & no cash raise
> Rincon £6.9m MCap (17.34% holding RNS 25-Jan-21 & £1.2m NAV) newsflow from end Mar-2021
In summary Low6 should do well on IPO as expectations are very high (see AIM:Pires as also an investor), Rogue Baron IPO I am completely underwhelmed as no cash raise or marketing and 2-page prospectus is frankly rubbish & cursory. Rincon is a dark horse and exploration is only just getting underway in Aussie so newsflow should pickup in coming weeks. I have a £21m target MCap for Rincon by end Jun-2021 or £2.4m uplift to GUN. I hope I'm wrong about Rogue Baron and it exceeds my low expectations!
AIMHO APR
Ahhh..work staff number ..
That's better than what I thought it might be.. collar number in Pentonville ;o)
Actually it was a bit bizarre coming to the same number with a similar turn of phrase.. you'll have conspiracy theorists talking!
Anyway yes I agree with Rogue Baron. I don't really get it to be honest unless they got something up their sleeve and all lining up some kind of merger.
The sales figures aren't very inspiring, and you're right it, it will be hard for gunsynd to dump such a large holding .
I'm not quite sure what they are up to with that one
Not a bad effort at all. Think figures are probably a bit skewed for both Rogue and Low6 but they should become apparent in next few days/weeks. Can't imagine RB being that liquid though so won't be an easy position to close, especially given GUN own almost a 3rd.
Not the most adventurous name is it? I'm lazy so used my work staff number!
Cheers 803799 (nice pithy name , you have!)
Happy to see that we came to the same amount..
I got 5.7M .but what's 100k between friends :o)
I rounded the warrants up, and didn't use the ones to be exercised
Thanks for the reply TT. Decided to do it myself too as was probably rude of me to ask without at least attempting to do it myself too!
OK I've just done a bit of totting up, a bit back of fag packet but here goes.
Warrants issued @ 1.3p - 62,717,950
Exercised - 26,852,529
Outstanding - 35,856,421 (so still over half to be exercised)
Issued at 2p - 56,500,000 (obviously not an issue at the min)
Rincon - 16.5% = £1.15m at current mcap
Empress - 1.4% = £288k at current mc (was more than double current sp at one point)
Eagle Mountain - 1.8% = £0.94m at current mc
Low6 - can't find a IPO valuation but £265,010 invested
Rogue Baron - seen in here £6m mcap at IPO so 28.48% would be £1.7m + £111,464 CLN
Cash - £1.42m taking into consideration warrants Exercised, placing and sales of holdings. Minus say £200k for working capital so £1.2m
Total £5.65m without a value for Low6 thats only taking what we paid for it, also not really knowing Rogues value but should know that in a couple days.
So if Low6 and Rincon take off could be onto a winner but at the minute at a small premium to NAV. More than.happy for people to chip in with different figures btw.
These are a bit back of fag packet..but an estimated quick summary of present value in £
Eagle Mountain 700K
Empress 300K
Rincon 1.2M
Rogue Baron (the figure banded around was 1.5M..not sure of this)
Cash estimate approx 1 Million
And if we have circa 2% of Low6 @ 50M flotation = 1 Million.
So, my estimate is NPV of around £5.5million which doesn't take into account any potential major uplift of Rincon/Low6.
Our present MC is around £6.7 million . So I'd say we're going to be very undervalued soon at this share price.
Please feel free to correct as these are estimates (especially rogue Baron being an unknown)