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To provide a sustainable and attractive long-term dividend by investing in a diversified portfolio of utility scale energy storage projects located in the UK, North America and Western Europe.
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I have done more research and thought about t some more. if the revenue from a GRID can drop off that quickly and if the revenue curves are thatt inaccurate, the margin for error must be larger.
there have been a bunch of people in energy storage who think they are smarter than they are and GSF is certainly one of them. they thought they were smart to choose smaller batteries which turned out to be incorrect (because they cannot participate in Blaancing Mechanism which will become the larger part of grid revenues in UK). GRID is spending money upgrading their systems to longer duration to allow them to be more flexible with their assetts - GSF is arrogantly contuing to purse their expansion into more small batteries in the UK without really considering the futurre rrevenues tthese will ggenerate (or more importantly how). GSF think they know it all but it has proven to be false so far in UK.
in the USA grids will clearly follow a similar path to the UK since the UK is just ahead by a few years. givenn the USA has also got the 30% capital refund, the BESS systems will saturate the grid even faster there.
GSF and rest of 'im the smartest guy in the room' will end up being acquired at below NAV once the dust settles and smart people with good capital allocation can acquire these muppets et al.
Dodger - go back a bit he was saying 80p was a good buy…. He’s all over the gaff - anyway I simply had to take some just under 64p, surprised by the fall but with the divi held will ride it out till the cavalry (USA) come on line
You said the other day 65 was a good price to buy and now you are coming away with 45 or 50p ..nonsense
This is not about UK capitulation - there are many UK stocks trading at much higher levels than 3 or 6 months ago, this is about people now wanting to be left holding something that doesnt avtually produce the expected cashflows.
at the moment Gore street has done a terrible job of annticipating UK revenues (and their capital allocation) and they will likely have similar issues in the USA as grid saturation takes hold there.
Gore street has a right and wrong price. this is the wrong price and its likely the right price is 50 or in the worst case 45 -and ill be buying a lot then, but not much at theese levels.
This is UK market capitulation in the face of higher-than-expected US inflation reading. And it's not pretty.
GDF does have some bond like properties but thats not even the point. there are risks that have simply not been discussed sufficiently by the management - technological obsolescence, market saturation, regulatory risks. there is a half hearted attemmpt at risk management but the sensitivity analysis is only for show.
GSF mgmt need to be much better at capital allocation and ensure all assets are performing as well as possible (which means choosing the best operator aggresively). they need to provide more forward guidance and regular updates on performance of asstes to investors if possible but they also need to consider scenarios where rates stay at 5% for 3 years or so (or maybe longer as govt spending is high so rates dont affect the economy as much).
can they still earn any kind of return if rates stay at 5% and loans are at 8%? i think not much - not without some careful capital management.
They mentioned that forward rate curves where accurate (in their latest RNS update)- well if thats the case did they predict the massive slump in the uk market? Lets have a look at annual report page 31 - Revenue curves for the UK indicate an expected revenue from UK of £90-100,000/MW/Yr (and this to be steady for over 20 years).
BUT LETS HAVE A LOOK AT ACTUAL PERFORMANCE: https://www.bessanalytics.com/performance
gore street has managed only £25k/MW/Yr in the uk on its assets over the last 90 days (thats 25% of the expected revenue curves which they said were accurate QUOTING THE 5th Feb RNS "Storage investors have relied on forward-looking revenue curves to make capital deployment decisions and determine asset values. The revenue curves employed in valuing GSF's assets have proven to be the closest to actuals amongst those disclosed in the market, avoiding Net Asset Value volatility."
so the company is earning 25% of the expected revenue and they say its accurate.
https://www.gsenergystoragefund.com/content/news/archive/2024/050224
Always struck me as strange on a public chat board saying DYOR. In fact isnt that a bit of an historical thing? Anyone know of anyone getting into trouble for not saying it. I never have and been at it over 30 yrs.
As for shorters. There are none. They would have to have balls of titanium to short GSF at present. Rathbones sold a dollop a month ago so maybe thats made a dent but they still hold plenty - or did. Maybe they have been selling out. I wish I had
At least if it is being treated as a bond that suggest that people with more knowledge than me the dividends to continue to be paid. I'll just sit back, collect the dividends and wait for the Fed to break something.
This stock is being treated like a bond. The market does not care what it does.
The cash flow is being discounted at a higher rate because American cpi is higher than forecast and interest rate will stay higher for longer. Hence a lower NPV.
dyor and act accordingly.
jr
Battery storage is the. future and GSF are. very well diversified geographically.. and have a great dividend. BUY.
This has been a tough hold. I find it hard to understand why GSF is back to this SP level. At the weekend I went back over everything again. If the project(s) underway in the US is completed and energised, then cashflow generation will materially boosted. In the meantime the company has the cash reserves/flexibility to fund the dividend policy to which it has just recommitted. We’ve not seen anything to suggest that the US objectives won’t be hit.
I think we’ll look back on this period as golden opportunity.
Shorters don't normally fight against a buy back. No such luck here. Reduce the dividend and switch half to buy back IMO. Good for anyone who pays tax on their dividends.
Really don’t understand this one as Grid is up today with a much weaker model
Surely the 'get out of jail' card here is that if the price falls to a ridiculous discount to NAV and the management cant re energise the SP then they are under pressure to wind the thing up and pay out the proceeds ? Or they get taken out with a bid ? Rumours of a bid for Harmony were reported on Citywire .
Question is rylidan 'Why is that'?? Reasons ??
So in less we've gone from being a great buy, to being a great sell? What about the recent reassuring RNS! Being played with I reckon, so time to take advantage soon and add to my collection.
GLA
Panic is beginning to appear like the best option !! It knows no other direction bar one.
its a conundrum for sure. i bet there are investors who sold amazon and who held gec who have different points of view. i wonder if there are any who panicked and sold gec and held their nerve having bought amazon. one thing is for sure - whichever end of the stick i grab its usually the ****ty one :-)
Yes, Canetoad, but you may be suffering a large loss if you sell now - but if you hold you will continue. to collect the. excellent. dividend!
If I hold what I believe is a good asset/stock/trust, but the market disagrees with me and keeps tanking, I tend to respect what the market is saying and exit in order to protect my capital. That means that many times I'll regret having exited, because it often bounces back the moment that I sell. But that's the nature of risk-management... I'm at that point again now. I add to winners, not losers. There is always the chance to buy the asset back again - that is the advantage that a small investor has over large investors who *cannot* buy/sell so quickly.
A chance to take out panicking investors - I wish I had a quid for every time Ive heard that before it all went tits down - which is what they are panicking about. No matter what the big time charlies would have you believe fear (if not panic) is a well tried and tested method of protecting your capital if not producing windfalls.
Don't get what they are panicking about...
jr
If you got the money, you have another chance to take out panicking investors.
jr
Glad that I didn't topup...
Good job the last update was positive - jeeesuuus. This one is hard work