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To provide an attractive and sustainable dividend over the long term by investing in a diversified portfolio of utility scale operational energy storage systems, which utilise batteries and generators, located in Great Britain.
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Inevitably twist. But when was this decision taken and who was aware of it?
Very interesting couple of weeks ahead, assuming the next dividend announcement matches the previous ones:
14th February 2022
10th February 2023
w/o 12th February 2024??
couple of weeks time. Do they stick or do they twist?
I’ve emailed them too . As a private investor the communication behaviour of this management team is an absolute disgrace.
If it turns out the insiders have been disposing on no official news, it could be one for the authorities.
I emailed via this - https://greshamhouse.com/contact/
the response I got today;
Good afternoon
Thank you for your recent enquiry regarding GRID via the website, we have shared your comments and concerns with the investment Team.
The Fund Manager is unable to make selective disclosures due to Market Abuse Regulations and insider trading rules, however, the team wished me to assure you that GRID’s Management team and Board are aware of the current circumstances and expect to provide an update to all shareholders at the appropriate opportunity.
Kind regards
Some key points from podcast, dated 24th Jan:
Frequency market is saturated. National grid bringing enduring auction capability has reduced prices further. Revenues negatively impacted for BESS, makes dependence on market arbitrage.
Also sounds like asset location and site selection is going to make more impact on pricing in the future.
Conviction that these are short-term tail winds...although, I wouldn't say that this was communicated very confidently for the coming year
49min long recording . Can find by googling "Do higher risks mean higher returns for battery storage investors"
The last time I had a share drop 50% in a month on me like GRID it filed for bankruptcy a month later and we shareholder got nothing. The GRID BOD should issue a statement with a profits warning, announce a dividend suspension but issue an.assurance the company is trading as solvent.
Market conditions are poor. Apparently revenues for 24 are looking worse than 2023 (listening a podcast on energy-storage dot com)
They still advocate business case for long term, but current situation definitely bleak.
GRID should really post announcement, unbelievably poor comms.
Am looking to add later, but only once things turn. Happy to buy at 80p (large premium to today) if more certainty is there
I bought these after hearing an interview with Ben Guest, the manager, on the Money Makers podcast back in November 2023. Ben said that the forthcoming changes to the balancing platform by National Grid National Grid ESO (Energy System Operator) should really help them:
https://soundcloud.com/moneymakersaudio/184-weekly-investment-trusts-podcast-with-ben-guest-and-guy-anderson-11-nov-2023
Well, the changes to the balancing mechanism to seem to have happened on 13 December:
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/first-stages-open-balancing-platform-go-live
"This first stage of the Open Balancing Platform will unlock new levels of precision for the ESO control room, enabling Bulk Dispatch, a new tool that will allow control room engineers to send hundreds of instructions to smaller Balancing Mechanism Units and Battery storage units sites at the press of a single button."
Gore Street Energy Storage (GSF) mention it in their update for the FY Q3 ending 31 December 2023:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GSF/portfolio-and-trading-update/16282172
"the GB fleet (excluding Stony) generated an estimated £6.1/MW/hr, less than half the Company's estimated average revenue during the quarter. Highly anticipated reforms to the Balancing Mechanism began in December 2023, with the impact on revenues yet to be seen."
GRID mentions this change in their last RNS of 15 Dec:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GRID/launch-of-the-eso-s-new-open-balancing-platform/16253483
"the initial indications are positive and, based on provisional data, are expected to lead to increased revenue opportunities for our assets.
The Fund is now looking to move its non-BM assets into the BM to capture the higher revenue opportunities now expected to be available."
So how come GRID is down nearly 47% YTD on no news and GSF down nearly 22%?
Tempted to catch this falling knife but it shows no sign of bottoming out.
Can you provide an email address as I would do the same. Let's publish the response here to share it. This kind of destruction of value is highly concerning.
Down 9% today now - have emailed Greshanm house asking for comment/feedback regarding price drop since the start of January.
It is a case of:
Lower Revenues
Lower NAV
Lower Divi
... for now!
The case for battery storage in the long run is sound, however that can't be said for the Management team. Maybe they did see the risks; higher interest rate, lower energy prices, competition etc... and have a plan to deal with it!!!
The future is electric and is putting a strain on the 60 year old Electric Grid Network, it has to do two things that it has never done before - heat and cool houses and charge EVs. Due to decarbonisation, there has to be a massive expansion and simultaneous transformation of the grid. The energy required to meet the future demand is vast. The grid has to get about 3 times bigger than it is now, requires big electric cables and pylons. These cables need to run to the offshore wind farms and onshore solar farms. Last year a legislation was passed to allow this to happen. We will need storage to balance electricity demand.
Temptation got the better of me. Will see if I have my fingers next week.
GLA
Yes I said 6 days at 70p was tempted to buy more tomorrow, luckily I didn't now down 45% in 1 month.
I should of sold 7 days ago!
But i'd probably be buying back today given my "catch a falling knife" mentality said the man with no fingers!
GLA
Crickey, another 7% down this morning. Share price in freefall. Sentiment is so poor. Another of those more recently created investment trusts of a more speculative nature, which have gotten themselves in trouble. There have been a few, e.g. SONG, DG19 (recently announced it's winding up) and there have been others but the names escape me now. All are in different fields but the one thing that unites them is that they are investing in fairly new asset types (battery storage, music royalties, digital start-ups). Obviously there are inherent risks investing in asset classes without a long track record and to mitigate these risks a high quality manager able to allocate capital smartly and board with good oversight is absolutely required for these sorts of trusts. Exactly what we don't have. Should've thought about all this before I invested. Painful, but it's an education.
Anyway, as I've said and as others have said, in the absence of communication from the board the market has decided, quite reasonably, that the uncertainties about the divi and NAV are for real.
Before anyone invests in here - you might want to look at the market and peers.
GRID and HEIT are solely in the UK market (for now), which has been terrible in the last 12 months for revenue. GSF has exposure to UK but also Ireland, Germany and Texas has has provide decent updates over the last 12 months.
Definitely worth taking a look elsewhere before buying in.
The collapse in the share price with no comment or explanation by the BOD is frankly unacceptable.
This has been on my radar for a while. Not investing until we get some news, although I may need to pay a bit more! I try not to gamble, tempting as it is. On paper looks good here.
Hope you're right or something is seriously wrong and threaten GRID business model and some people know this and are unloading shares at any price. If the nav is as stated this kind if discount would suggest alarm bells. I've invested recently as all the information in the public domain was positive that I could read. Why isn't the company making a statement about the recent sudden collapse in the share price?
Perhaps there isn't sufficient cover to maintain the divi but the share price has fallen so far ( > 40%) in the last month that you have to start thinking there's good value here.
Having been reading from a variety of sources that the BESS sector in general is in bad shape:
A) Disconnect from BM last year saw average under-utilisation of assets at >80%, hence the emphasis towards Dec BM change
B) Pricing per megawatt down >2/3rds year on year, which will substantially impact revenues
C) Debt financing costs likely to suffer due to interest rate movements during past year or so depending upon conditions and likely lagging.
Combined, recipe for disaster
Still , that's for BESS as a sector. UK's BESS market now largest in Europe due to huge growth in 2023. With the whole sector down 30-40% (yes, GRID even more so) and BESS being a strategically essential element to the countries future infrastructure, this really is becoming a too big to fail scenario.
As others have commented, I'd rather providing an update, get the bad news out there, halt divis entirely for a year if needed and bring this ship back on the road again. This d then become perfect contrarian buy, especially for those of us buying in SIPP and happy to play the long game... but as things are the silence is beyond a joke
GSF also down but not as much as GRID. I wonder if this might be a reaction to all the battery capacity coming on stream over the next 18 months? My understanding was that this was all required for renewables generation, although the lower price of gas might have meant that a bit less storage now needed (until gas prices rise again!) . However, This still feels hugely overdone. I hade 3 purchases in the low 70s today, and I'll buy more if this continues in the 60s tomorrow.
I agree I bought before Christmas as the GRID sp looked stable with solid support from NAV and dividend. I had read somewhere the dividend was not covered but only by a tad. Clearly way off analysis as the Jefferies note I saw today on another chat reported it was very uncovered. The free fall since I bought (I'm down 25%) to all time lows surely warrants a comment by management at least to know where we are. One otherwise must conclude something is badly wrong but not yet known publicly.
Which email address did you use ?
I used info@greshamhouse.com
grid share price free fall. 25th jan 2024
my letter to grid: an action plan is needed
sadly, a cosy chat with me will not solve the problem.
my position:
i thought the stock market overreacted (over corrected) to the downside on infrastructure funds last year. i believe people saw these as a safe source of divi income with stable navs. when interest rates and inflation rose sharply above the divi the smart money sold up, followed by a snowball as the laggards caught up and over reacted to the downside. i don’t know whether this was driven by private or institutional investors.
long term investors, like me, saw a bargain and bought funds. in my case hicl and gcp. they went up, grid did too. when ‘higher for longer’ became the view they pulled back, a bit, grid however is now in free fall.
i bought after christmas, thinking most of the pull back was over. how wrong was that? in the last 24 hours my losses have doubled.
do you know why? apparently not.
do you care? apparently not.
the september statement video still on your website
transitional period
unfortunately ng not full automated [their fault, not yours obviously!] ****ging off a customer in public was not a career move in my day, (how things must have changed).
next year:
cyclical recovery
alternative revenues
alternative trading to (those ******s?) ng
new capacity on stream
substantial improvement in revenues
late dec rns
we have seen an increase in actions in the balancing mechanism (bm) for bess assets. it is too early to point to the specific revenue impact, but the initial indications are positive and, based on provisional data, are expected to lead to increased revenue opportunities for our assets.
the fund is now looking to move its non-bm assets into the bm to capture the higher revenue opportunities now expected to be available. 100mw will move into the bm in december 2023 and, so long as the results remain positive, more will follow in q1 2024.
[wishy washy (bs?)]
we look forward to providing further updates on the impact on revenues in due course
january 2024 glossy video
irrelevant promo not related to transitional period made with other peoples (now my) money.
what would stop the rot?
a new rns update with actual numbers, cash flow based on the first month of 100mw?
conciliatory words to ng made in public?
your resignation?
the market thinks something is wrong with grid specifically. your september video was hideously bad.
the stock price chart is f****d. no one is going to wait for us project bliss in 2025 now.
i don’t know the answer, but i do know that
gh, grid and you personally must:
address it now
The market has already priced in at 50% at least dividend cut, even though the management are confident of covering the dividend and no bad news has been realesed. I've seen few profit warning this year, none of there share prices gave fallen as much as grid has this year..