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You must be well under water Nemo…..I’ll get my coat
Nemo we are going to ride this tortoise like zorro to 18p!!!!
As a loooong term investor in GMS one thing that cheers me is the tightening of supply with regards to vessels. From my experience, which even goes back as far as 1986 which was a truly awful year in O&G, they difference between adequately supplied and under supplied is often only a few vessels.
When times are tough like they have been for the last few years the 'sales guys' always try to get the best deals they can but the clients normally hold all the cards, and it's hard to turn down a multi-year contract even if the rates are poor - because a working vessel that more or less covers it's costs is better than stacking. Hence we see some of the recent announcements that options with NOC's have been extended at only slightly improved date rates.
Once the slack disappears from the market, and it WILL, the suppliers start to hold all the cards. Things that the supplier was stuck with paying like; fuel, crew change, standby, etc can be passed on to the customer. So, it's only a matter of time before the improved day rates and other charges reach the bottom line.
Mcatee - I think we are less rocket ship and more tortoise but we all know who wins that race in the end, but I'd be delighted to be proved wrong and if it goes to 18p in the not too distant future I for one would be laughing all the way to the bank. Keep the faith people.
18p now! You forgot the link
Here’s a link to a course on how to “stop being a plonker and get onboard the rocket” as we head to 18p a share
Do you have a link to that information Investhome?
I have been saying similar things since the 3p cash raise, investhome. A couple of things I would add is that the local tax rates are very low - running into just a few percent, and that the fleet is fully owned, with management expecting fairly low levels of maintenance capex to be required in the coming years, amounting to circa $10m pa. Both of these things support the ability of the company to generate high levels of FCF into recovery, and consequently borrow at higher multiples of EBITDA. ATB
the $50m only is necessary if the net debt being 4x ebitda covenant is breached
the business is already running at $80m annualised ebitda if you annualise the H2 guidance
Panmure forecasts for 2022 are for $75m EBITDA which is certainly beatable given contract win momentum. EBITDA will need to be 35pc below that to breach covenants
the banks may still enforce an equity raise, but with local mgmt at the helm for the first time, and clearly better relationships in the region, I reckon good chance the equity raise doesn't happen. EBITDA at 75 plays 300 of debt looks manageable for potentially the bottom of the cycle and day rates still way below 2018 levels
I suggest you to check out page 6 of their latest presentation. https://www.gmsplc.com/wp-content/ResultNPresentation/11-08-2021_081111investor%20presentation%20oct%202021%20final.pdf
The EBITA is earnings after admin costs HAVE BEEN DEDUCTED!!!!!!!!!!!!!
*admin 10m*
Not with this level of debt 4C , it’s why I didn’t buy it years ago before the debt restructure. The banks hold the cards and have allowed the company time to turn things around but with the caveat that they raise another $50m before the end of 2022. Cost of sales was around 70m and will go up due to inflation pressures, admin around 5m, they’ve achieved cost savings mainly due to head count reduction. So even with the high ebitda it doesn’t leave a lot to pay off much debt when you take into account the interest on the loan, which will ratchet back up within 12 months, still leaving a mountain of debt. All though they are heading in the right direction getting into a profit even if the accounts are a tad skewed from the last 2 years. Do they have enough time to NOT raise these funds though, i very much doubt it. Like I’ve said with the guidance given what will now raise this sp to allow them to not raise the funds in a highly dilutive way to shareholders or at all? We can all claim the plus points with the rose tints on, some even claiming they won’t need to raise the 50m because they’ll have 70m in the bank ! It’s the negative side of things that will give you the slap when money is lost not profit missed which others seem to claim, hence why I always concentrate on the negatives. I really don’t know why people need to spit their dummies out, maybe it’s so they can jaw off with insults, who knows.
Could you please put your 200 quid in National Grid and f0 this site!!
Come back in 18 months when Gulf is 18-22p tell us how much you have made by taking the ferry!
Hmm.. contracts signed, higher rates, better guidance.. all the obvious things that the bulls predicted and profited from (but amsham did not) .. I’d encourage readers to look elsewhere for a crystal ball.. atb :)
That is a fair question....
My question - would you buy this at 6p if there were no capital raise?
There’s nothing else going on here 4c, only a few rampers throwing toys about. Low volume, price in a downward trend, most contracts signed and known about, guidance given, what will move this sp higher?
Love them days when there are more posts than trades
There there amwrong.. if all you do is sit on a chat board and post negatives then OF COURSE you are discouraging people from buying. Poor advice. You got it wrong. Anyway, keep building the wall of worry, has done wonders for my share account so far :)
I’ve not conceded anything, I’ve also not discouraged anyone from buying or had any kind of good slap. You live in your own little bubble Wigwarmer, just don’t start crying when the $50m cash raise comes knocking. At this price it’ll be bigger dilution than last time. That’ll hurt
Thank you for conceding that you got this one wrong all the way up. Your apology is accepted :)
Yawn
Lol. All you have done all the way up is repeat the same boring message about the potential $50m raise. The chances of any interested reader not knowing about it is practically zilch, thanks to you repeating it several hundred times. Yet the shares have leapt around 50% regardless. Where did you go wrong? If you are going to post on the board of a stock you don’t own then at least get it right, or say something new, or add some mirth to proceedings. The only thing amusing about your repetitious worry is how entirely misplaced it has been in understanding the direction of the shares. ATB
Why do you lie Wigwarmer? I’ve not discouraged anyone from throwing their funds in here, I mentioned that the company need to raise $50m before the end of 2022. How is that discouraging investors when the company signed the deal? I guess as one of the ramping crew you don’t want people knowing that FACT. As for the market giving me ‘another good slap’ how can that happen when I never had funds in here, seems you’re desperate for some attention with your boring post.
Given Amtech was discouraging people from buying at 3.8p - and has consequently been shown to have the touch of an ape - I can only assume the market is getting ready to give him another good slap! Let us know when you jump onboard amtech, I suspect you’ll be just as good a contrarian indicator on the sell side.. :)
I said 9p. But I never said when! ;P