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18months is from mid 2021 to end 2022. We have the net debt figure as of mid 2021. (guess its too late to go back to school)
Also end of 2022 is the deadline to raise the $50m
Yeah rightO
I think Amtech needs to go back to university and do a few courses in basic accounting and finance. Or perhaps back to primary school and learn his (or her?) arithmetic
So now it’s 18 months worth of ebitda? It’s a wonder they didn’t pay it down over the last 5 years with the $323m of ebitda they amassed and didn’t spend then!
Wonder how they’ll get around the t&c’s of $50m of new equity as per the restructure?
1. Net debt was 377m as of mid 2021
2. $40m (already in the bag) in second half of 2021, and midpoint of $75m in full year of 2022 = $115m of EBITDA in 18months
3. $20m interest, $5m tax, $10m capital expenditure over 18months = $35m
4. $115m - $35m = $80m in net cash generated (assuming no working capital needs)
5. Net debt of $377m - $80m = $297m by Dec 2022 (+/- $5m depending on where 2022 EBITDA is)
This is in line with Panmure Gordon's research note. Not the greatest scenario, but much healthier balance sheet which should help them to avoid the $50m capital raise
Average ebitda guidance stated in the trading update was $75m. You stated the $75m should help to reduced the debt to c.$300m by the year end, that is not possible with net bank debt standing at $406m especially when they take into account the interest, taxes and depreciation that have been added back in.
Depreciation is not a cash movement!!
So out of the $75m EBIDTA in 2022 and the $40m EBIDTA in last 6 months of 2021, they only have to pay interest of $20m approx (18 MONTHS) and rest can pay off loans. SIMPLES!!!!!!!!!!!
Now will someone please cancel him
Where did you get "$75m debt repayment"
The banks wanted them to raise $75m equity, of which they raised $25m or so. Their debt should be around 350 now, so need to get another 50m to drop it to 300 - that leaves them at a good position to not have to raise the remaining $50m....
Unless something goes wrong in the middle.....
Correct, so how are they going to pay $75m off the debt with $75m ebitda then.
Because depreciation has to be added back u plank! Could someone block him please
‘Ebitda is earnings after cost of sales and admin have been deducted! It is simply the profit before depreciation and interest and tax! ‘
Ok so using your basic logic above and using the H1/21 results
Revenue $51,393m
-
Cos ($35,007m)
-
Admin exp ($4,883m)
=
$11,503m ebitda, right.
If that’s correct why was the ebitda at $26,3m in the HY results?
Ebitda is earnings after cost of sales and admin have been deducted! It is simply the profit before depreciation and interest and tax!
No they won’t, what’s the cost of sales per year on the revenue intake ?
EBITA is profit before interest, tax and depreciation.
As depreciation is not a cash movement, the company will have $70-80m less the interest to pay of the loans!
How many times do we have to explain this to you????????
Take your seat at the back of the rocket and S T F U
They won’t have enough money to pay off $75m from the debt mountain, are you mixing up ebitda with profit again.
Seemed like a watered down release.The expectation was $75m+, so yes, the low end of the range is disappointing.Not sure how these contracts work, but I would think that there is a time lag between bidding and wins.In any case, $75m should help to reduce the debt to c.$300m by year end, and help avoid that $50m raise which Amtech is so worried about.
Well I think some people were probably expecting/hoping 2022 EBITDA guidance would be a little north of $80m given the second half 2021 run rate. Perhaps they are low-balling now in order to surprise to the upside later (although I wouldn't put my money on it). I also think people were hoping day rates would be a little more improved than 10%. All in good time.....
For them to initiate an equity research report on GMS?
Wonder what they’ve appointed Arden Partners for ?
Clearly someone doesn't like it....
Any idea as to when the trading update is released?
Rocket fuel purchased with paddles sold at 4p. More contract news on the way won’t be long before ignition. Sure the dinghy dong will be back with Armageddon Tales.
Have been onboard since 3.3p. Enjoy!
Wigwammer, move up to first class in the rocket!!!
You are quite right Mcatee. Sequential guidance for h2 EBITDA is $40m+, and given further recovery in day rates since this forecast was given, additional contract news, and oil strength, we are likely looking at $80m as a very conservative base for 2022. This is precisely why the market has materially lifted the stock price in recent months on decent volume - the necessity of further dilution is receding and if it does go ahead, there will be greater appetite to get exposure. Some piled in at 3-4p. Others did not. The market is the final arbiter here. ATB :)