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@captnemo - wouldnt it be great if they bid 22p before christmas!!
Just hoping they dont destroy value for the remaining 40pct shareholders since SF(30pct)
and Mazroui+Horizon+Buddies (30pct) = 60pct now. Another 10pct is with Castro, who was represented by recently ousted Mo Bissiso. I would think they managed to convince MHB to vote with them - is that because a bid was promised or some other plan was hatched. SF can't make a bid before 28 Nov - they can make a bid now with new boards approval but that might show collusion. New board by the way is comprised of guys from oil and gas in Abu Dhabi - so could translate to significant value creation if they ramp up utilization.
Also you are guaranteed some action in next few months as there is also the bank to deal with, who have given a 31 Dec deadline to raise equity or issue warrants. New board is trying to re engage with the banks - great move would be if they can convince the banks to take some haircut
That's the minimum they can bid for a while as was the highest price paid when they amassed their 29.9% holding. Alternatively they just sit it out now they're in control anyway. All depends what side deal they have done with the other two major holders. Obviously they're not all working together as that would be against the take over code!!
Whyt would they bid so much higher now, just because they are in control?
And then ??????? Anyone care to make a prediction?
New bid at 22p?? That would make for an early Christmas...
7 days to getting SF's Heikal on the board
10 days for the no-bid period to end
sorry to say: there is no trading pattern to analysis if there is no volume.
Is it just me, or does anyone else think that the current trading patter is a little odd?
There were lots of very small sells all day, one was for 2 shares at 14p total..... which has the effect of driving the price down in the lack of any strong buying and then late in the afternoon someone buys a million shares - or two different people had the same idea 23 seconds apart.
Could it be that a '3rd party' is picking up as many shares as they can, as cheaply as possible, so that come Nov 29th SF can make a formal offer at 22p for the small number of shares that they don't already own?
@ GruffJ, not to temper your enthusiasm, it also means someone has sold as much as they can :)
Seems like off the market trades don't have to be reported at all. So there were possibly other undisclosed off-book trades in recent past, which probably explains the fact that 60% of shareholders voted for SF resolutions (unless of course SF convinced more people to vote for their proposals)
Pop again tomorrow I hope!!!
Somebody has bought as much as they can at market or just over today before they have to issue an RNS tomorrow I expect!
I agree, it's an absolute travesty that they haven't investigate or stopped any of what has happened. WHat message is it sending to the world about how we protect out companies?
Fully expect RNS from Horizon and Mazrui tomorrow with shareholding triggers. The new BOD surely haven't been in place long enough to jump through the hoops they would need to in order to satisfy Seafox triggering the 30% threshold outside of the 6 month window.
I've written to the Take Over Panel and asked why they haven't formally investigated the actions of these three parties acting against their so call "code"! I doubt I'll receive a response.
Given the direction of travel and trading update, 22p is still too cheap and 10p is robbery. I'm certain the equity raise would have been successful based on the trading update numbers, if it wasn't for the disruption of the three amigos.
Id assume they would buy up what they can in order to be more likely to push through whatever offer they deem appropriate, and are allowed to make(?). Chart is beginning to look like an ugly pin bar for today, trying to decide whether to buy back in or not but having a tough time fully grasping the goings-on and potential outcomes
Question is, what is the likelihood that II's will sell at 10p? SP was at 11.7 today and they imply banking will be sorted quickly. I don't see any significant investors selling at 10p....
SeaFox can’t make a bid for 6 months - unless approved by the Board.
The old Board would not approve, but the new Board is somewhat different!
Regardless, the 6 month restriction is up on 28th of this month.
What with all those trades at 10.70p while sp is 8.62p and 9.60p
Of the volume traded so far today 50% is off book and the majority is market maker driven. Look forward to the RNS on shareholding thresholds
With the language they used in the past and their arrogant nature I feel they will muscle through 10p by fair means or fowl might as you say, may have to wait until 2021 before doing so.
Does a stock split circumnavigate the issue of offering above the highest price paid?
Yep, how do you refinance £400m with a £34m mcap company, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
Looks like someone opened they check book.
11.35 GBX +5.75 (102.68%)
11 Nov, 09:54 GMT · Disclaimer
Next Steps
The Board will now commence a review of the Company's business and operational matters including, as a matter of priority, the Company's financing arrangements.
10.87 GBX +5.27 (94.09%)
11 Nov, 09:51 GMT · Disclaimer
They can not make any bid for 6months, and after that can not bid for under 22 till June 2021 since thats the highest price they paid
Are you sure? I thought they couldn't bid again before the end of this month. Why could they not bid less than 22p after that date?
Just under 10p now. Be interesting to see if it stops there.
I don't think SF can make a bid below 22p, but someone else can