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Thank you for this @otmansalamat and those who share things.
I think this and recent news confirms ICG approach is firmly the second option I aired in a previous message: Baghdad to let the KRG pipeline stand, and fully circumvent KRG altogether. While this always was a politically imperative for ICG (to undermine KRG economic-political autonomy), I had thought the US would have an interest in maintaining oil flows through the KRG pipeline.
Yet, especially given that Russia's Rosneft are part-owner of the Kurdish pipeline, it seems the US has an incentive to support (or at least not protest too much about) ICG circumventing KRG pipeline.
"The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline would effectively allow Baghdad to gain full control of Kurdish oil once it is produced. Baghdad will force foreign oil companies who have contracts with the Kurds to renegotiate with Baghdad to sell their oil through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline instead, which will completely cut the Kurds out and eventually make it impossible for foreign companies to operate there."
I guess we'll get confirmation of this during al-Sudani's visit next week. As far as I know, KDP still boycotting the elections/toys out of the pram. Seems like this is finally getting resolved, the uncertainty shall soon disspitate, and a the new reality will settle in.
The question of "which pipeline" seems close to being answered; next uncertainty in my POV is content of new contracts with ICG.
And, if the KRG pipeline can now be considered out of the picture, what are IOC options for reaching export markets?
Wishing you all the best.
Shame its the wrong pipeline for GKP
It's always been about screwing the Kurds. The IOCs are merely collateral damage.
I have bottled it, and exited my 20k. Only 5% profit but it has been my concern (previous posts) that the Iraqi goverment could protract the negotiations to undermine Kurdish finances. With the focus shifting to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan PL It satisfies Turkey/Iraq relations and also squeezes the Kurds financially (reducing autonomy aspirations) and helping to push through Turkey stance on the PKK.
It maybe the US may support the Iraqi Kurds but as others have said with the Rusdians having a investment in the Kurdish PL It all looking a bit too fragile for me now.
GLA LTH.
Rgds Sft
Like I said, it will come down to violence or the threat of violence. How anyone doesn't understand the nature of this region by now, especially with everything else going on, I really can't fathom.
It will begin with pipeline sabotage.
This is just a negotiation.
Like any other.
The ITP. will re-open.
The rest is about the price GKP will have to pay in any re-negotiated PSC.
It's called 'leverage'.
And the ICG have it.
Relax.
GKP will negotiate its new position and decide on its response accordingly.
And then we'll make our minds up.
Pretty sure APIKUR will be an irrelevance...that committee of disparate companies have very different agendas depending on their own very different financial agendas.
This is a risk share.
And if you don't know that then you really shouldn't be in it.
Nothing we didn't already know but a nice overview.
https://amwaj.media/article/deep-dive-iraq-s-prime-minister-embarks-on-first-visit-to-dc
Have a great weekend! Hopefully an exciting week ahead for us
USA wants the pipe open.
USA hands a significant amount of aid to Iraq.
It's called 'leverage'.
And the USA have it.
Yep the lies the ministers have been saying the last year are clear for all to see. Talk of working with fellow countrymen in Kurdistan while all the time do the opposite.
They are the first to have their hands out trying to get USA dollars and aid.
Two faced and bent as hell.
Only 16 months or so to go.
It's all a pipe dream literally!!
Iraq don't want the any oil flowing from kurdistan.
I'm sure now you can all see that 😉 or maybe not!!
With the Iran / Israel escalations PoO will be up and GKP will follow accordingly tomorrow.
It seem I have have exited incorrectly.
Rgds Sft
Surfir ur on crack
Crude oil already hit 6 month high today, following the overnight attacks on Israel. Some of the weapons used were fired from Iraq. Clearly by those controlled by Iran.
Iraqis now have a clear issue and problem, they have to either get rid of these militants or embrace Iran completely. Its also crystal to the world who is the country that's been stirring up all the trouble against Israel, and where all the arms have been coming from.
Doubt the average Iraqi, wanted attacks from its own soil, and clearly Iraqi airspace has been seriously violated.
Did Iraq actually try to prevent or shoot down these drones, or did they actually do, what they've been doing the last year, by paying lip service against the attacks, but actually doing the opposite.
Citations for the "weapons were fired from Iraq" Mr G?
That'll be Mr B....typo
Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34582-US:-Some-Weapons-Fired-from-Iraq,-as-it-Denounces-Iran%E2%80%99s-Attack-on-Israel
link that some weapons were fired from Iraq.
Many of the ministers in Baghdad are proxy for Iran. This is the direct cause of our pipeline not opening. Some are trying to play both sides for advantages.
Hope Joe is wide awake for today's meeting.
If he makes the decision for them that the PL should open NOW - it will remove it from the bargaining chips pile - and drive some form of stability into the equation.
….. wonder if he knows that some of the players from Baghdad\Erbil at the meeting are wwwwaaaayyyy richer than his own family ?
He should perhaps dig into where that wealth came from ?
You first link cites pResident J Biden.....about as reliable a source as The Beano.
Your second gaslighting effort smears "many Iraqi Ministers" as Iranian puppets with no facts whatsoever behind the statement.
Back to square one from last Monday!! All gains wiped out as per usual with GKP . Many more false dawns to go yet so hope everyone makes a few quid trading this farce ?? 90s back on the cards as this will be sold down now .
Hopefully this will be bought out for £1.50p soon enough.
Good afternoon Mr Happy!!!!
Its no secret that Iran arms all those proxy groups with Iranian religious views. Are you based in Iran Andy, make no mistake, every post here is read by paid individuals in those countries.. I can also prove that as well.
Its clear that some weapons were launched from Iraq, by groups armed by Iran with Iranian backing.
Some of the religious clerics are aligned with the Iranian ones along with many judges.
Noticeable that we have not had outrage that Iraqi airspace violated badly....
Also clear that the Iraqi military didn't try and shoot down the slow moving drones or even apprehend those launching them. Why not.... They were told not to,
Prove it.
You're all hat and no cattle.
Enough data points for geolocating me?