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Hi guys,
Not being a mathematician, can anyone roughly work out what an extra $100 per ounze on the gold price could mean to us. based on current reserves estimations. I know i saw a chart where GGP will be producing at the low cost end of a gold miner 9i.e cost effectively) getting it out the ground etc. and we were looking good with gold around $1800 an ounce. so an extra $500 per ounce must be worth millions more to us - if not billions $ . Any enlightening would be most welcome. Thanks all and GL GGP'ers
hi martin, i’m sure someone like bamps will be able to thoroughly go through the calculations down to the nearest dime. but here’s my back of the *** packet attempt.
for each million ounces we dig up, that’d be an extra $500,000,000 into our coffers. if for instance the mine goes on to produce, as some have suggested 20m ounces, then that becomes an eye watering $10b extra over the life of the mine. now divide that by say 30 years, that’s an extra $333m per annum, less taxes of course. so you can now see just why it’s imperative to get these negotiations done & dusted.
Based just on the PFS and just gold an extra US$500 per ounce would be
160,000 oz x US$500 = US$80,000,000 per annum EXTRA by my reckoning.
Someone else will probably illustrate it better or in more detail than me.
Good luck
I think I prefer your figures SAs 😀
It’s 35m per year for every $100m increase in gold
Here’s my calcs from an earlier post
“3 million tons per year
Sulphides 3.6 g/t
= approximately 350,000 oz @ 100%
AISC $1050 for gold only
Gold price $2,000 =$332.5m
Gold price $2,050 =$350m
Gold price $2,083 =$361m
Gold price $2,100 =$367.5m
Gold price $2,200 =$402.5m
Gold price $5,000 =$1.4bn
$35m for every $100 in gold price
Based on average grades not first Ore grades which are 6.75g/t”
Oops $100 increase in gold price 🙂
Thanks guys, i thought we were talking large numbers per $100 bucks
$80mil - $333 mil per year extra based on $500 increase in POG
Perfect - go on the price of Gold keep going norhtwards.
You would be much better concentrating on the copper price, the profit on higher prices is enormous.
Investing in gold only companies misses the chance of a lifetime.
Oh and I forgot to mention, currently our market cap is valuing our 8.4 million oz equivalent at a measly 0.26p per ounce. Think about that for a second !
Forget that last post. I missed a few digits off. Fat thumbs 😂😂😂
£38.69 per ounce. 🤫
The rise in gold and copper prices make a strong case for more economical ore tonnages in the resource and inferred categories.
The reserve boundaries are set , so the only way they can improve is the internal weaker ores become economical and the gold equivalent value calculations will increase.
Bamps what are the equivalent calculations for Copper, and for each $100 extra per tonne Cu?
Anyway, TheBigfigure, I think you’re just being greedy now 😀.
Continuing to push up. Just waiting for that RNS to drop and we should be moving with it.
Hi Big figure
Copper price doesn’t work like that a ton is 2201 lbs so $1 rise per lb is $2,201 per ton.
Anyway it’s the grades that give huge amounts, try working it out.
Low average 0.4% x 3mt per year copper
Middle average 0.6%
High average 0.8%
First Ore 2-3% ?
Let’s see what people get?
“Gold pays for everything ,
Copper is the profit”
Wasn’t the low aisc at hav due to the copper offsetting the costs ?
Thanks Bamps for answering my questions, and Freddie, yes, the Copper contribution is why the AISC was stated at US$654/oz, third lowest in a table of all the significant gold mines globally. BUT ..... I doubt if there is a strong correlation between the price of Copper and the price of Gold, both are on upward trends but with different drivers. So I was thinking about the rule-of-thumb thing (Gold pays for everything and Copper is the profit) - as % POG:POC changes so the AISC will move. But whatever Gold price does, Copper is no slouch, in fact on a percentage basis it's up massively. May 2023 low was about $3509/tonne. In May 2024 it touched $4936/tonne. That's price growth of 55% in 12 months.
Equivalent movement in the gold price from here would take us to $3500/tonne. (AISC steady - not so mad then)
I've taken up the challenge from Bamps and set out my calculations for Copper sales below.
Ore mined: 3 million tonnes per annum
Price of Copper POC = $10,884/mt or $4.936/lb
Bamp's Copper Grade assumptions:
Low average 0.4% produces 12,000 tonnes p.a selling at $131m
Middle Average 0.6% grade produces 18,000 tonnes selling at $196m
High average 0.8% grade, produces 24,000 tonnes and sales of $261m
First ore grade of 2.25% produces 75,000 tonnes, selling at $816m
As you can readily see, if Copper prices were to uplift by $1000/mt, or 9.19% then sales would jump to $891m.. If industrial demand had another strong year and Copper rose 55% again (=$3000/tonne, we would hit $1.2bn. All these figures are for the COPPER alone. BTW to clarify about the units: Where I have written mt this is metric tonnes. Where millions I have written million or m.
Bamps, two more questions, can you estimate the tonnage of high grade first ore which is likely?
And what would be the individual metal AISCs, i.e. separated out Gold and Copper to reflect their processing costs and transport, but not expressed as metal equivalents, can that be done?
Hi Big figure
Well done for having a go let’s hope Newmont don’t see it 🙂
The amount of First ore depends on the stoping process, this might change though if Shaun’s current thinking is to approach the Western Front differently.
The old plan of 2mt was to drive 5 stopes through the First stoping level on the Western Front and the 3mt has 4 drives and then have to go to the Eastern front before backfilling commences.
This increase in stope drives will reduce the First ore tonnage available.
The Eastern front second level has the equivalent high grade as the Western front but quickly reduces as it progresses around the crescent.
The first level of the Western front has 8,10, and 12% grades this suggests a concentration of Chalcopyrites, so this may lift the specific gravity higher meaning more tonnage per cubic metre.
My calculations for the First Ore worked out around 1.5m ton with 5 to 600,000 ton in the first phase of stopes.
When the ore reaches the surface it will be stockpiled and crushed before going to Telfer.
The grades will therefore be mixed, Telfer will have set grade requirements that it can handle so a weaker mix than First ore might be required. I’m not certain on that only what I’ve been told.
Averages quoted around 0.6% maybe the figure to go on but early ore will have strong grades.
The process at Telfer is mainly floatation so it will be difficult to separate out AISC for both gold and copper. The gold eq AISC$634 covers both ore processes but that was for Ggp 30% it will rise for 100% as transport to Telfer will get included and more admin costs. NCM had a figure of $743 for 70% without transport
Bamps - going to go out on a limb here and be so bold as to suggest that Newmont may change their mind.
Hi Ace
Not a chance I won’t let them 🤣
They want to see these 6 Tier 2 mines succeed in the future.
It’s mainly a Tier 2 due to combining Telfer/Havieron, Ggp will class Havieron as Tier 1