Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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So SC are you leaning towards newcrest are currently buying ggp shares or will soon to make a takeover, strange thing is would GH not covered us against this ?
SK
My point is that the Ggp board has never publically indicated a desire to be taken over. Quite the reverse in fact.
As such, any takeover bid must surely be hostile. Mechanisms can be brought into play to try and prevent this, but if successful there would clearly be significant tension between Ggp’s management and that of the acquirer. GH etc would leave, and the future benefits to majors of having Ggp carrying on its exploration and development work would be forever lost.
Why would Newcrest, a company with whom GH has developed a fantastic working relationship do this for short term benefits only?
Maybe I am being naive.
UR
If Newcrest want to acquire GGP, they will have to do so quickly, for the following reasons:
1. Newcrest only has a first right of refusal over the Paterson project. They do NOT have a first right of refusal over GGP. Any other major, such as RIO, could come in and shaft Newcrest's rights to first refusal by simply buying GGP. Newcrest would then never have the opportunity to have first refusal. In short, if Newcrest wants GGP's Paterson project, they CANNOT rely upon their right of refusal, they must takeover GGP and do so before anyone else can.
2. GGP is currently cheap. As Havieron progresses and as GGP's other licenses are progressed, the takeover price will only rise and the shareholder base will only become stronger. It is better therefore to takeover GGP sooner rather than later.
Maybe there is some mileage in a major taking a minority stake in GGP. This will give GGP some much needed cash and the major can influence the direction of travel for GGP. There could also be some synergies in sharing exploration thoughts and technologies.
MS,
I had given that some thought and accept it is a possibility. My thoughts, however, were that most if not all majors already have their own exploration wings which act in accordance with their boards own Boards specific directions.
It seems to me that it is better for Ggp to continue their (now) tried and tested approach which is clearly proving successful. Surely this independence is critical to their success which is perhaps more beneficial to a prospective purchaser in the long term.
Time, as you say, will tell.
Regards.
UR
Thanks for looking in Chartbuster , I’m looking forward to the Blackhills results , could be a big positive trigger and the newcrest update in October with the Firetower assays being the left field play , keep looking in mate.
Exactly my thoughts Urban. Ggp is much better off selling off projects they find by having them proven up by majors. Until they are big enough to develop their own projects and don't need majors anymore.
Indeed, the core skill of GGP seems to be finding the targets and doing the initial work to get the big boys in for said 70% ish and live on the 30% ish.
However, they are not big enough so GGP will have to sell something. Which coincidentally is their strategy.
However, what if one of the bigger boys do want to have them incorporated (maybe as a stand alone unit) because they're so good at what they do and this major doesn't want to miss out on any projects. Ggp is not going off on a tangent in some weird jurisdiction any time soon I'd hazard a guess.l so I don't see that 'not liked projects' argument as valid. Besides, the mother company would steer some anyway.
Although from a NC perspective I do see your point and indeed Sandeep makes it very clear he is in no hurry when he shows his ore reserve graphs. Longest ore life of them all. Others may not be so patient and may want to get more stuck in.
Time will tell. GGP has to play their cards well but are not in full control either.
MS
Cheers Stuart.
Amen UR.my sentiment exactly
Gents,
Regarding takeover conjecture, please could I throw a couple of points into the ring.
1. Are we talking about friendly or hostile here. It is apparent to me that GH is forging good relationships with other mining companies; not necessarily just Newcrest. Do you recall the ‘not at this time’ comment by Newmont. The Ggp board also are likely to have a good relationship with Rio. As such, any move from these companies would likely be friendly would it not.
2. If a hostile move is made, who is it likely to be, and there are a number of defense mechanisms that can be employed.
3. This suggests that any move IF one was to come would be from one of the above companies. If so, why? Ggp are, in my view, doing an unbelievable job in their position as an exploration company. As such, the major companies must surely want them in play to continue searching for the next Havieron (be it BH, FT, even from one of the many anomalies in EG). If that was the case, and the move was cost effective for the acquiring company, would not a vertical merger be relevant so as to keep Ggp in action as an exploration wing of the acquiring company. Hands would obviously be tied.
4. My view, however, is this. (I am by no means well versed in this topic). Ggp’s strategic aims are to grow SH value by acquiring targets and then proving up the same ( alone or x JV) to the point where the individual project ( or others if such have been offered as first refusal to a JV partner) becomes attractive to that company (or other co) and an agreement to sell is reached. This ensures that the acquiring company obtain only the projects they want (and not in areas in which they have no interest as would happen in a full acquisition case) and also leaves Ggp doing the sterling work in identifying and developing new projects. I have not read anything that indicates that the Ggp board are looking to be bought out but plenty that makes clear they intend growing as a hugely successful and independent concern.
I fervently hope Ggp are not taken over. I believe shareholders will be best served by Ggp continuing as an independent company and doing what they do best. Just look at what they have achieved with Havieron and who knows what else is to come.
UR
Good morning poms!
Well lots of rumours flying about regarding takeovers and all that.
Could be true, might not be true. Not important....yet!
What im interested in is drilling and word is Newcrest are going flat out and potentially chucking more manpower at Hav.
Is she growing in all directions? Sounds like it.
Next round of news should reveal the true scale of this thing....hold on folks cos i think this is about to get funky!