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I disagree there, we know from the 360 New York article that they’ve began receiving sales again for HCV and that hasn’t been RNS’ed. That article is now hidden behind a subscription wall, so for some reason he doesn’t appear to want to share much info about sales in general at the moment. Now with the qPCR test, Beckman are not publicly disclosing numbers about their sales. If DB knows, then it appears he isn’t able to disclose. Which makes sense, BC is a separate business to us. All we know is when they buy from us. Their current batch of tests is expiring soon so I’m expecting a new order, and a much larger more favourable one at that from genedrives’s perspective.
just now I'd consider 85p a low ball offer. Being more positive I'd hope for anything between £1 and £1.50 but the longer DB allows the sp to wallow at 50p the less likely it looks.
One more thing to add to this is that I have no doubt DB would get a sales RNS out if it was positive. Therefore my assumption is again a rather negative one in that either sales haven't happened yet for some reason or they're really poor.
At the moment I'd take £1 and run for the hills.....
No. Don’t think fda is coming any time soon also
Is there any way to track fda status ??
I m waiting for the update on below page , but it’s been like this forever .
https://accessgudid.nlm.nih.gov/devices/05060654860127
The iis will protect us to some extent from a lowball offer. They will want to make good margin on any shares they own
There will be contractual SLA s and covenants to protect against that dummy. As a commercial manager these are basic tenants in a distribution agreement i can assure you.
Sorry Lloyd, you're post isn't logical at all. The lack of sales is not down to the products themselves, but DB's inability to sell anything. If you know you can get these products to market, which Beckman are more than capable of, you would make an offer whilst the SP is depressed and struggling, not when the company is self sufficient and has piles of cash rolling in. Why would you want to pay a premium, when yku could get it on the cheap?
There must be a reason DB keeps putting the brakes on the SP, or he's getting more incompetent by the day.
Roger65 you should start your own business with all that knowledge
No doubt we have some amazing and unique products with great features, but that alone is not enough to be a target for buyout. Beckman has expertise and can easily manufacture those assays and the difference they haven’t evinced interest into it for reasons best known to them
So key is FDA/WHO for covid assay, and for other products they have to be proven to be having significant demand and are profitable.
LLoyd88 - I absolutely would if I knew how good the products were but the sales journey hadn't yet even got under starters orders. That's when larger companies want to strike with their take overs, not once a cpm[nay is on the up and can push for a higher purchase price. BC must be aware of exactly what GDR have in terms of quality products and they are best placed to realise successful marketing/sales campaign. Now is the perfect time to make a move and also BC are in pole position now to be in control of any sales progress thanks to DB signing the distribution agreement. There will, I believe, come a time when BC (Danahar) make an offer and if it's not accepted they will withdraw from the distribution agreement. That would send the sp plummeting another 50% lower imo. as things stand they have DB and GDR over a barrel. Accept our low ball offer (and DB gets a nice personal offer out of it) or you're on your own and we'll wait until you're a distress sale and then take you for peanuts.
Pretty grim analyses I know but this is business and none of the big players out there have a shred of loyalty or care for DB and GDR or its shareholders.
I have my own thoughts on what this company could be worth but DB hasn't managed to manoeuvre the company into the right position to realise its potential. Of course delays in approvals have played their part but, as I see it, we are between a rock and a hard place now, unless sales are reported very soon and are positive. Unfortunately we are all agreed that DB and good comms aren't happy bed fellows in any single given sentence and so whilst he stays silent I am inclined to think my take isn't as far fetched as some would suggest.
Ref BC all depends I suppose on how their sales cycles are going, to which we are at the moment in the dark. We know they like the format of the product as it fits with their workflow and automation goals and is being manufactured by and using tech from another Danaher group co, so if they want to take it further (i.e. diversified or updated tests using the gdr lypholized 1 step format with concurrent benefits) then sure I could see some sort of move eventually. We'll see I guess
@lloyd , you would if you knew you could sell them yourself!
I have to admit I can’t see a take over as much as I would like to see it. If they offered over 100million BC would want that return and more. gDR don’t have an real assets other than their products. Which as far as reported hasn’t sold many. AIHL is predicted to be worth 30million and the others not known yet, so there are not enough number to support the investment and no real orders to support it either. I believe if stock was flying off the shelf then maybe a takeover would be considered but I guess you have to ask yourself, if. You were BC would you by GDR now with no major sales figures and just their products that so far haven’t been sold in volume? I know I wouldn’t!
Scratch that, @thepunter1 maybe if your only purpose here wasn't QUOTE "I like being able to say I told you so", you might be able to entertain a number of views. As it is you're constrained by your goal/hobby.
You may be right about takeover Dave (as I replied to Roger I'm not personally as convinced as some at this stage), and I'm sure as you say there would be advantages to have all products under the umbrella of a large corp. Just suggesting that it'd have to go hand in hand with Danaher believing in the products (and the BC marketing suggests they do for the Cov kit). P.s. I'm trying to be uncontroversial around here (at least for today lol) as I think we've all had enough friction on this board, but just saying it as I see it
I bet the major pharmas are queueing up to buy out a diagnostics company that have yet to report any significant sales during the biggest pandemic of the last hundred years.
Inphobe- i was looking at from a long term perspective, to bring some consistency to the sales and marketing . As they Genedrive bring on more and more products, it makes sense to have a single amd consistent distribution process, rather than dotted all over the place with various partners, some of which may never achieve anything. Remind me how much have Sysmex or sold again despite being a disributor for over a year?????
Therefore makes sense to have this in house, to give it the attention it needs.
@davemcmanus given that BC are already conducting the marketing for the Cov96 kit (and other co's for other products), your suggestions are a bit round about face. Either BC think they will succeed with their sales (and as they're still marketing I'd suggest they do) or they won't be looking for further moves like a takeover. Can't have it both ways.
@guy can't disagree, I personally still expect a trading update but I have no more crystal ball than anyone else as to when exactly (though I note whenever this drops to around the 50 level it attracts buys, so seems this is where we will sit until then). Meantime we know which companies are marketing for us (ref Cov96, HCV, Mil) and we/the co wait on that and for the AIHL release and Covid PoC. Still, should be a news rich period coming up imo, just when exactly
Roger65- it's a possibility as i suggested the other day, but it was quickly dismissed by the happy clappets. Whilst there is no evidence of a takeover, Budd's goal is to secure the future for himself, which of course a big corporation like Danaher for example can provide should they buyout Genedrive. He can't stay on £400k a year of a small AIM company indefinently, as at some point they will have issues raising cash given his poor sales track record. It is also takes away the marketing and sales pressure which they are currentky struggling with.
Inphobe it’s the same loop over and over , people get frustrated with where we are , we then take a small raise , we then hear how this is just the beginning , then we drop what we raised , we then get threads of what’s to come , small arguments happen and then the cycle starts again
Just bored of it all , I’ll laugh at the stupid comments when I see them but hopefully something happens soon
Roger65 - All this is very possible seeing the number of times that Budd has suppressed price rises back to 50p. The India news went up 50% and now back to the same level when Budd's announcement put a massive dampener on it.
There does seem to be a growing appetitite for takeovers ... Meggitt was announced yesterday for a 60% premium from a USA company and yes Beckitt could be involved here. I have realised that Pharma companies have a 2 - 5 year timeframe for investment and its very frustrating since they only announce when they can or have something real. This is what I have seen after investing in 10+ Biotech companies.
We all want a share rise or a takeover and I do agree this could happen. I would just like to know when a trading update is planned since that could give some clues?
Jmo but I'm personally not currently 100% buying the idea of a takeover (you could be right though of course, always a possibility), as I see the co has made multiple partnerships within sector depending on product speciality and that BC/Danaher are just as keen to work in partnerships as to acquire co's going by their recent pr.
(Oh and fairness to guy, who's been pretty restrained in posting recently and always maintained AIHL at min will come good)
All I’ve said in the past few days is I don’t trust majority of what people say on here lol , swerves went from giving up all hope to topping up in the space of a couple days lol
And I also laughed at someone who said people were hoping for a lower entry point like 50p a share isn’t affordable , people are so on edge it’s getting embarrassing
Any one thinking along these lines? I’ve not read this bb for a while but I see Guy and Jace are here all day, every day posting their frustrations and fears. Either you’re both invested way above your necks or you’ve an agenda. Easy for me personally to judge which side of the fence you’re on. Whether you’re positive or negative on this stock however, you have to admit the comms are utterly dreadful and DB has done a poor job in keeping sh informed.
I would say though that we have been told to expect a three month delay so won’t hear any news on FDA or EUA until Oct. Disappointing? Yes, for sure, but at least we know not to continually ask for news on that front until then, so why waste your breath? Lack of news on other fronts is equally frustrating, sales in particular but again, have we been told to expect anything right now?
The silence is odd so I’m still inclined to think a deal could have been lined up behind closed doors, dependent on FDA and EUA news, hence it’s perhaps all informal at this stage and no requirements to announce anything in an RNS - plus the likelihood of NDAs being signed between parties until things become more certain. All fanciful?? Or does anyone else here think DB could have lined this up and land himself a new position and to be rewarded handsomely (in terms of shares and options etc) by a potential purchaser?
I hope for one of two things. Either there is an update on sales very soon which is positive and gets the sp moving back towards £1 or that hypothetical low ball offer lands and amounts to £1 - £1.50 per share. I’ve loaded up whilst we’re sitting at such a low price and so am now quietly confident I can rescue this investment.
GLA