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Itsyou
I replied to your post because you were misquoting the Current Liability number. Simple.
You ask why bother to reply and that the correct figure was £5M short of the (incorrect) number you used. Really?
You then follow up with this statement:
The company has massive liabilities of £15.5m, which is bad in a high interest environment, especially on the interest rate they are being charged...fact
So you have taken an incorrect number and then inferred that the company is paying interest on this amount.
Why did I respond to your factually incorrect post? Because it was factually incorrect and presented a false accounting position for the company for anyone reading this board who didn't understand the true position.
I present facts to you and you ignore them.
I ask simple questions and you refuse to answer them.
You say 'I know a lot and I mean a lot'. Just what does that mean??
To cap it off you now say that you are not invested here. Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.
Correction : "as this chat is GOING nowhere."
"Absolutely no one here is trying to deflect from any numbers - I am shouting from the roof tops to look out for this very detail. That is what all the holders here want - to get to the bottom of all the numbers." - then why bother replying to my first post, although the wording I used was ~£5m short of the total I used? But the total figure is correct.
There's no need to discredit me personally when the total number is correct. I know a lot and I mean a lot.
I'm leaving it there, there's clearly a mile between our opinions and I've been is situations a long while ago where I've defended companies when people bring up negatives, to protect my investment, so it's unfair to spoil this BB as this chat is discussion nowhere.
I'm not an investor here; could be one day, but a clearer picture of the financial status of the company is needed.
GL
(cont)
I am sure many will read my post and just see a one sided view - I understand why that might be but my intention was to play devils advocate.
From my experience things are rarely black and white and particularly in business. Financial accounts can tell you so much but for context nothing beats walking a factory floor - looking at the stock room, looking at the machinery, talking to staff, understanding the components of a cashflow forecast - looking at the make of of the creditor and debtor lists, understanding the broader supply and demand issues to get a good feeling for a business. Of course we don't have that luxury as shareholders - we only get to read an RNS and if we are looking we get some colour and explanation from interviews.
In short I try and read between the lines as well as the factual content supplied. I was raised in a family where money came in from a one man business and have pretty good understanding how money is hard earned from the efforts of one person performing all the duties of any business - its hard - very hard.
I'm not putting my rose tinted glasses on when I look at Robbie or the company - I see it for what it is - currently an under capitalised company operating in a very tough market but literally sitting on a gold mine with huge potential. High risk / reward stuff.
I try and take a balanced view and clearly you do as well Zan.
ATB
Hi Zan
Thanks for the post last night.
I did dial in once to a TG interview (not on their group anymore) but I can't recall most of the content now frankly or the context in which any numbers were given. You are right though - that is a big number. I would need to read a transcript if anyone has it to understand how and why this was mentioned to form a personal view. If it was heavily caveated as it seems from your post, it does sound like he was dreaming out loud and hopefully anyone listening would have seen it as such - but this is where communication is such a complex issue and particularly for CEOs where they have to be so careful. It might well fall into the category of things Robbie later regretted saying, even if at the time he was trying to share some personal long term view of potential. As an aside lets hope he was right!!
In terms of the April presentation - I found an RNS quoting Robbie:
The results from the first 30 days of mining and processing ore from the Kilimapesa Hill high-grade zone have gone beyond expectations and the team are continuing to improve in all the areas. The high-grade zone now supports the current production levels for 13 months, plant availability is back on track and improving after the installation of standby power and recoveries are expected to improve with the delivery and commissioning of the new crusher and additional CIL tank capacity.
Is this what you are referencing? I am not sure that they needed the finance deal to meet those output forecasts as they were concentrating on the HGZ - could be wrong?
If so if that was the situation at that time I am not sure I can see an issue with that. Have I missed something?
To your point about transparency I think it would very much be dependent on whether he was making false forward looking statements or not. I doubt he would have fallen into such a trap as if that was proven the FCA would probably remove his ability to be a director. From my business experience, forecasts are just that - forecasts - so many investors will beat companies up because a forecast was not met, without understanding the reasons why. Mining is a good example of an industry where there can be lots of unforeseen eventualities and in the case of Caracal with so little working capital behind them, its almost a case of be damned if you do and damned if you don't provide a forecast - with old plant being worked hard and potential long lead in times for replacement or repair, it must be an incredibly difficult thing to forecast with total confidence. Probably the best guesstimate at the time frankly.
In terms of the accounts - yes obviously a biggie and with serious consequences. I think before passing judgement we would need to sit in the CEO' shoes and understand the cashflow juggling act - do you throw cash at an accounting function or production - annoy shareholders in the short term (suspension) or have quick and uptodate numbers on the closing statement? (cont)
Itsyou.
My heart sank when I read your first sentence regarding my questions which you state did not need reply.
These were really simple and basic questions and your only reply is to say they don't need a reply. The most blatant deflection statement. When you come up with financial ratios that I have never come across such as total liabilities in a balance sheet as a multiple of market capitalisation - can anyone reading this explain that one to me please?
You ask why I didn't include the financial status of the company and yet I have already pointed out the second point I made in my list of considerations - quote:
- read and try to understand the forthcoming accounts
I have tried to explain that this bullet point is a common generic term to understand the overall financial status - BS and P&L - how plain can I be?
You state the company owes £15.5M and that you are fully aware of how the £15.5M is made up of - emphasised with the word (please) as if to emphasise how basic the point is that you are making. I have tried to guide you to help you understand - let me try one last time - I strongly suggest you brush up on the constituent parts of the balance sheet and understand the difference between current liabilities and non current liabilities and indeed what elements will be interest bearing and which are not. Think about hidden assets also in a miners balance sheet.
You then actually start to raise some interesting points and questions that we are all looking for answers for - let me remind you of my 3rd point to look out for: quote
- read and try and understand the forthcoming prospectus
Absolutely no one here is trying to deflect from any numbers - I am shouting from the roof tops to look out for this very detail. That is what all the holders here want - to get to the bottom of all the numbers.
Once we understand where we have been (remember these will all be historic numbers) we can have a better idea along with the prospectus and hopefully more uptodate / quarterly / management number and overlay all of this against the future plan, whatever that might be.
In terms of trying to discredit you - you seriously need to reread again all of my posts.
I have corrected your incorrect statements on Current Liabilities. I have questioned a financial ratio which you are quoting and which I have not encountered - I haven't passed comment - I just want it explaining further please. You have made statements that you have taught me basics of mining - I can't find evidence in your posts to justify that claim.
I'm afraid in my personal view, you have discredited yourself and that is a shame.
I would encourage you to look at my list again and please try and understand the generic terms I have used in some cases which are standard in business accounting and then try and find some bias statements or suggestions in there to justify your claim of representing a one sided view.
JC,
I'm not going to answer your follow on questions, which tbh don't need a reply as it's all about GCAT financial status and whether it's a Going Concern.
You first need to state why you did not include the financial status of the company in your list of points about what Shareholders should look out for?
Hopefully it is a Going Concern, as I hate seeing shareholders lose money when they just read BB's and base their investments decision of posters just showing one side of the story.
The figure that the company owes was £15.5m on 31st December 2022, which is the accurate figure as stated in my first post on the Thread and cannot be disputed, even with waffle, discrediting and spamming. We are none the wiser since as to the figure on 31st June, as we're still waiting for the AR.
I'm fully aware what that £15.5m is made up of(please!), which also includes the CLNs and Shares that have been promised, but never issued. Hopefully the Prospectus will take account of these and they can be removed from the liabilities. Although that comes with a double edged sword, as those that have been promised shares may sell them, especially as some have been waiting since the RTO. E.g Mayflower, although tbh they set this company up and have already taken their profit. The additional shares also impacts on the MCAP, which was obvious so really didn't need explaining!!
This is the list of the CLNs(can be converted to shares) and shares owed at at the last AR in November 2022
- 150m shares owed to Mayflower(prospectus)
- Management incentives(prospectus) part of the 142m criteria ahs been met
- 116m for Tanz acquisition(12/08/22 rns) - which is probably why we here nothing about Tanz as it's still not fully theirs yet, if the shares still need to go to the vendors.
- 37.5m for former directors(03/08/22 rns)
- CLN for £2m to Orca(22/03/22)
- Loan note Instrument of £1.2m to Mill End(21/06/22), with interest of 133.333% of the principal to be repaid by 150 days(still not paid)
- CLN for £2m to Koenig(18/07/22)
- CLN with Orca for $1m(16/01/22), with a further $4m that can be drawn down.
So has will the total liabilities have increased since the Interims? By the way people are trying to deflect from this number and attempt badly to discredit me...IMO I'd say yes, by quite a bit, especially as those trying are very close to the company(probably on an NDA which is fine). But we do know that RM pledged all of his shares to Mill End after the Interims, so this will increase the number. So too the other shares that have been pledged but not issued and further CLN's that have been taken out. Although we don't know is these were taken to cover other previous CLNs/loans
We'll all know the detail within the next 6 weeks, if not we'll never know
GLA, including those that have invested on the basis of comments made on this BB and those that have overexposed themselves financially to the BOD and it's promises.
Zan, it's 50 /50 what the future is and as long as you invest accordingly, you won't do much wrong.
As the odds change, so should your investment.
As for Vim Rutha, may I suggest comparing GCAT & GGP early only drill results.
10moz+ discovery is classed as world class as its extremely rare.
Kilimapesa is around 700k ounces and gold is known for nearby satellite deposits, maybe kilimapesa is the satellite, who knows lol
Hi Beb,
Not getting misdirected is def important and the Vim focus prob did and does move your mind off other problems.
In terms of loses, I would hazard a guess that the results will be dire, but equally manageable.
A linked but bigger concern surrounds shares issued without the prospectus, but linked to it i.e., to be allocated after prospectus approval. The money was raised to allow improvements/lights on cash flow, but you never get to see the small print. Is there a timeline attached or are we to believe those investors were happy to not get there shares in return for the front equity for potentially years upon years? If theres a prospectus approval deadline associated to those previous equity raises, then as a company it runs the risk of unmanageable/payable debt.
Given we were never told about one of the CLNs before, I don't expect to be informed about any other monetry movements that might occur to settle things, but still a point of interest.
In terms of current production. We know its not going to have been great, but you could make the arguement that it has allowed methods to improve and be refined, which if funding is ever secured, could prove very useful to future production after levelling up.
Its certaintly not all doom and gloom here to me. Plently to look forward too, but only if they can get themselves out of suspension soon.
I dont think that is being impatient either to want that.
Zan, careful not to get blind sided where they want you to focus.
The upcoming financial results upto 30th June 2023 won't be pretty.
We already know they sold 3,913oz of gold for whole year and have a good handle of likely loss shown.
The period after the financials will be even worse and hence the suspension and non disclosure of Q3 & Q4 2023.
The question everyone should be wondering is whether they believe the company will survive consecutive periods of losses that is having accumulative affect.
It doesn't matter how many shares someone holds it certainly doesn't make them know more than the facts.
Thanks Folio.
JC, on the interview RM did via TG, 1 day before suspension, RM stated that he believed Vim was a 200k Oz per year mine, with a 40 year LOM.
Which works out at 8 Mil Oz.
He did add, it was his thoughts and not proven, but that is what I am refering to about transparency. Its a very big statement to make, even with the caveat added at the end.
Again, not knocking his work efforts, but putting out a presentation in April showing your targets for next 9 months, knowing that they can't be hit as you need funding instantly to even have a chance of hitting them and knowing the funding wasnt near completion, along with knowing you werent even doing your accounts, thats a lack of transparency to me that no amount of busyiness excuses.
Note, this was all post finance fall through
Reminds me of the old joke about the chap being chased around in his garden swimming pool by an alligator - he forgets that he only went in there to clean it! Feels like that sometimes on this board!!
Thanks Folio - that's a useful reminder as to the potential in the background once the ship is steady and we can build the head of steam!
Contd - (other targets) - The success of the exploration progam on Vim Rutha has meant that most of the activities will be focussed on confirming it's a discovery of economic significance and then moving quickly to an initial MRE. Activities across the balance of the exploration licence will continue these include, West Kilimapesa Hill, Teng-Teng, Maghor and Olepoipoi.
Hi JC - Yes K Hill very much the factor income wise and will benefit from the increased Heap Leach Pads, although I suspect we will direct crusher revenue also . Vim Rutha clearly involves Capex and there are many targets surrounding it- These are from a 2022 RNS (13 Dec) - Caracal Gold plc, the expanding East African gold producer with over 1,300,000oz JORC-compliant gold resources, is pleased to announce sample assay results from its Diamond Drilling ('DD') programme on the Vim Rutha prospect, a shear zone of about 4.9km parallel to the known orebody at the Kilimapesa Hill deposit ('Kilimapesa Hill') at the Kilimapesa Gold and Mining Operations in Kenya (the 'Project'). The drilling intercepted, on several occasions and over a distance of more than 2km from west to east, one or more mineralised structures of significant thickness located a few hundred metres south of Kilimapesa Hill.
Highlights
· Assay results confirm the Vim Rutha prospect corridor is intensely gold-bearing, with mineralised intercepts returned from historical diamond drilling as well as the vertical and lateral extension of one or more parallel mineralised structures, over several kilometres of distance just south of Kilimapesa Hill.
· To date, 107 holes totalling 10,424m of the planned 12,000m Reverse Circulation ('RC') drilling programme and 21 holes totalling 3,637.7m of the planned 3,000m DD programme, which commenced in December 2021, have been completed.
· Results continue to demonstrate the high gold potential of the various exploration prospects located in direct proximity to the Kilimapesa Hill deposit or in the same geological environment.
· Results of 722 samples from Batch 5 have been received and results from the DD holes include:
o Hole VMRDD_001 : 13.16 m @ 1.59 g/t gold ('Au) from 45.27 m incl. 1.19 m @ 3.9 g/t Au from 49.79 m
o Hole VMRDD_002: 3 m @ 1.58 g/t Au from 72 m
o Hole NMRDD_003 : 11.44 m @ 3.15 g/t Au from 20.09 m incl. 2.75 m @ 4.12 g/t Au from 25.86 m
o Hole VMRDD_004: 7 m @ 2.63 g/t Au from 16 m incl. 2 m @ 5.80 g/t Au from 19 m
o Hole VMRDD_005: 1 m @ 84.15 g/t Au from 77 m
o Hole VMRDD_006: 1 m @ 1.29 g/t Au from 121 m
o Hole VMRDD_007: 5 m @ 3.17 g/t Au from 57 incl. 12.05 g/t Au from 57 m
o Hole VMRDD_008: 1 m @ 4.04 g/t Au from 12 m
o Hole VMRDD_009 : 18.11 m @ 3.13 g/t Au from 13.7 m
o Hole VMRDD_010 : 7.97 m @ 2.37 g/t Au from 18.05 m incl. 2.4 m @ 5.22 g/t Au from 20.97 m
· In parallel to the DD programme, which took place on the Vim Rutha prospect, 21 RC holes and 2 trenches were completed along the same mineralised corridor.
o Initial geological observations are encouraging and 1,578 samples have been sent to SGS's laboratory in Tanzania (Mwanza) for gold analysis.
· The sixth batch of RC and trench samples have been delivered to the laboratory. These include samples from 21 RC holes and 2 trenches from the Vim Rutha prospect.
Hi Zan - I have to admit that I am not close enough to the Vim potential to be able to add any value on that score. I guess it would come down to whether or not it needed drilling - if it did I doubt they had that luxury of exploration spend.
I doubt that the RNS cost would be a factor - I think they are circa £250 but they would need signing off of course. As for PR - that is certainly a luxury I would suggest but one that I hope they can afford at some point going forward = that would be marvellous.
Your point around transparency is again an interesting one and of course as shareholders we tend to see the topic through a narrow optic and we want constantly want updated info. Of course if we try and put ourselves into Robbie's shoes he has a multitude of stakeholders - work force / suppliers / regulatory bodies (not just the FCA - local government / mining ministry / health and safety etc etc- these all need to be kept on side - can you imagine his working day without a large team around him - shareholders probably have little idea as to what it takes to run a company like this day to day. So in terms of total transparency at all time I suspect he has been walking a tightrope - its one thing us shareholders venting on a chat board but things get really serious if your suppliers pull the plug on providing terms for expendables.
I keep returning to a fact that is often overlooked - Robbie has a shed load of personal investment here - more so than most CEOs and frankly as GCAT is his baby I think his commitment runs deeper than a large financial number -I think it extends to reputation and pride - 2 equally good motivators for a businessman to do what it takes to make this a success.
Just my Tuesday evening musings.
ATB
Hi JC,
I totally agree with the viewpoint on Vim and cost/finance management.
I do wonder if they started today, knowing what thry now know (or feel), then maybe Vim would have been the focus from day 1, but as it stands, that high grade at the hill, is what has kept the lights on this last 12 months, so understandable.
Its possible that RM has been reigned in, or that again finance is at play here. RNS's cost money, PR costs money.
In reflection, RM has been open about his hopes, but less transparent with deadlines and targets (as in, knowing they wouldnt be hit but not mentioning). Thats happened repeatedly.
Again though, I can understand why, even if I dont really agree, as a part of his job is to try to provide shareholders with a return (aware he is failing lol). Telling all can sometimes hammer the SP more.
Hi Zan - thanks for your post - great to have some meaningful thoughts on the matter.
I'm with you fully on the accounts issue and I think you have nailed it in that it was a financial (cost) issue. They have bolstered the team recently but when I say team, I suspect that we have had one or two people on this at best - again a cost / resource issue. Is it good - no - can it be explained - I think so - lack of cash which has been prioritised in keeping production underway and repairing infrastructure which has been worked hard to keep production going - albeit production at less than planned for volumes.
I think your comment on lack of openness is a really interesting one and can probably be seen from 2 sides - has Robbie been clear and transparent - I personally think that in the past we would almost accuse Robbie of being too transparent but too early along with it and many of the aspirations that he was expressing were in retrospect probably best kept to himself until contracts were signed. I think the recent radio silence is probably as a consequence of the new chair reigning back comms and saying that we will only announce when their are firm details to announce. That can be extended to the audit as well where the company are in the hands of an external company and frankly therefore are not in full control of the process. Now I understand that we can create scenarios to explain all of this but your point is well made that silence leads to lack of trust.
In terms of the HL Im not sure what the point is - wasn't it covered in the revised mining plan in October's RNS:
- The Phase 1 mining plan has 2,427,279t of ore mined over the 36 month period at an average grade of 1.06g/t. 529,756t at an average grade of 1.8g/t are processed through the Milling/CIL plant with 1,897,524t at an average grade of 0.86g/t processed by the Heap Leach plant. The plan assumes a 75% recovery by the Milling/CIL plant for 23,002oz recovered and a 50% recovery through the Heap Leach plant for a total of 26,153oz recovered. Combined Milling/CIL and Heap Leach production over the 36 months is 49,155oz.
I can only assume on response to your point on Vim will come back to cost - at the moment I suspect they are going for the most cost effective route to producing gold until they have sufficient funds to increase production.
Lets hope all the questions are answered in the coming weeks. All of the above might sound like ramping from me - its not - but I am hopeful!
ATB
JC, I guess its hard to fully relax given how long the accounts are taking. To my mind the accounts werent started at or before deadline day, as they needed the raise money to pay for someone to do/audit the accounts. Thats my thought pattern and it feels logical timewise too.
That explains away some of the time it has taken to prepare them and file them.
That said, it still shouldn't take a team 6 months to do either. Now, we aren't at that 6 months point yet, but it is fast approaching.
Naturally, it does cause a lot of concern that Robbie and GCAT sort of hid the fact no one was doing the accounts last year right up until the last minute, but lets be frank here, thats how GCAT has always operated so rings true to there ways.
That lack of trust in the leadership and openess from them is surely an understandable reason many might be less patient than if RM had a clear and transparent way about him.
I've said it before and stand by the fact it doesn't overly bother me (the trust element) as I know to take what RM says with a pinch of salt, thus don't invest simply on the back of a rampy TG group interview, but for others, they must feel a little cheated that so much of the talk, was just talk.
I think its important here to breakdown what was and what is.
Beb is right in that the heap leach was originally promoted as an add on, not as a standalone.
Today, its a big change. Some reasons might be because the grades just didnt cut it economically to do underground when taking upgrading costs into account, but a positive is that the opex/aisc will be much lower now its not.
I have always questioned why GCAT focuses in the Hill when Vim (according to RM) is Hav sized potential and I think the main answer likely is found in the above (that money and time went into the hill as was going to be underground, by changing point, switching might have been a tough pill to swallow).
Think that's twice folio has filtered me, wish they would make their mind up lol
I was simply replying to Swampy regarding the company was in fact set up as an underground mining with the heap leach as a secondary. Therefore half the operation.
The variable grades for underground made it unviable, therefore all the 2022 presentations (2koz per month) come into question.
So far the production, just doesn't add up and I believe it's the main contributing factor of not getting substantial funding here.
Looking forward to seeing the results.
As stated I have filtered Bebeto but it seems he is talking about the underground mining and you are correct Folio - this was shut down some time ago. Underground mining is the most expensive sort of mining - I think I am correct in saying that that they are open pit mining above the former underground mine - essentially working downwards through the hill rather than horizontally into it. There are lots of ways to skin this Caracal cat.
Bebs answers a flipped response.
Has your Tardis broken down -- babbling on about the underground part lol. Everyone knows they aren't using it - strangely enough even it was Newmont operating it they would concentrated on the cheapest part first - which is what they are doing, and expanding .
Yes sorry Bebs - Killi hill is being expanded ...... more diggers, more high grade (not your comments). However the bigger prize isn't the hill - however I am sure it will happen and you'll end up like the Best coffee - Filtered......
Swampy, I was referring to the underground operation, looks non existent now. Just open pit and heap leach.
The holding company's gazette was on companies house, they only had a week or so to rectify before being struck off.
A creditor is a creditor however small.
The old talk down to buy in cheap chestnut again lol
Suspended for several moths and weak production will influence the SP far more than anything said or discussed here, it's about time people got off their high horses and smelled the coffee.
People need to relax and wait for the accounts and news. Its that simple. Lets debate and pontificate with the facts. Anyone posting false information in the meantime - you will get what you deserve on this board - exposure and corrections.
I don't see the bears posts but why the sudden noise I wonder when we are so close to getting the accounts and forward looking news?
Could it be that they know we are just about to come out of suspension and want to plant doubt and fear in the hope that everyone sells on the resubmission? I am struggling to think about another reason at the moment given we are currently suspended. Maybe they want to drive the SP down on opening to pick up shares as they actually see good potential here?
Just a thought.