Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Apart from Lombard Odier ( 28.5%) there are no other institutions with significant holdings so the PI base is large. This is why LO will have a big say in any future approach as their votes are essential for a successful deal to get over the line. As always with small caps there will be people who trade this for 10% gains but for those who have been around the market for some time will tell you, the real gains are made, assuming that you have the liquidity, by picking stocks which are unloved/ under the radar and holding them until the ‘market’ wakes up to the potential. The UK market is unloved almost across the board with a small tech sector and challenging economic and political backdrop atm. FUM is under the radar and I would like to see some new and experienced commercial people join the company to support the management team as they grow. The BofE were very slow to react to inflation despite the signs being obvious to a 16-economics pupil and our lack of energy security has forced us to buy expensive energy etc etc. This has affecting all UK listed companies.
This will be sorted out in due course and money will return to UK stocks and those which have a product which is somewhat differentiated and is promoted skillfully, will do very well. This is still early days and the ‘ show me, don’t tell me’ attitude in the markets and the regular sales for the 10% crew when it rises above 50p is enough to keep it down, for now. I have a longer term horizon and a price target of 150p which could be achieved in a couple of years based on a good US launch. Just imagine if we are selling 5m units p.a. in a few years time which is quite possible and the share price will be multiples of where we are today if we continue to exist as an independent, which IMO is very unlikely.
A little company of 14 staff with a product that contains no active ingredient, has European and FDA approval to help solve a massive problem in many. I believe people are still scratching their heads in disbelief that this actually works. A company that has been screwed over by its much larger pharma partners in the past has now had the audacity to go it alone, only now reliant on their distribution partners and with the proven product boldly on sale in Tesco, boots and more. ( I saw it in Tesco last night, unbelievable) I believe people are still in denial like we see with some posters during previous years, but if what we are told by JB and Angela in the last couple of days comes to reality, that disbelief is going to turn into reality! As I said in my previous post the share price will skyrocket and I suspect a buyout will happen.
A number of posters have speculated what the share price might be in the future.Can anyone explain why every time,after the last 5 or 6 positive RNS’S the share price is sold down for 4/5 days before it creeps back to 51/52p.
These are significant inflection points that have no effect on advancing the share price.
I note that in the recent question and answer session the FO observed that we have a large retail investor base,and that this has a negative effect on the share price.This is why FUM are so committed to expanding their institutional base.
Well based on all the data the last few days we can expect the SP to reach £2 in the next 5 years, hopefully £1 by the end of 2024. I suspect if everything goes to plan we are now on a straight line trajectory! Let’s hope as estimates set out by FUM are at the low end I feel! IMO anyway.
Thanks Jet, I'm looking forward to plenty of upcoming news flow events before Aprils update, like upfront payments by new partner agreements, new country launches. Maybe even millstone payments met.
Excellent presentation showing us the outline pathway going forward into 24. I’d say results look pretty spectacular on the back of launch with projections very satisfying. Already looking forward to Aprils update with the likelihood we will be receiving further tie ups in the meantime.
Would personally like to see launches sped up, but take it the company know best. Share price is disappointing but my view is at some stage the penny will drop with a skyrocket increase literally overnight.
As it ain't launched there yet
I also note BE in 24 is based on sales generated, excluding US. Why no US forecast included?
Investor meeting in 35 mins, let’s see what Fum have to say 🙏
Thanks Beech, good post. Let’s hope the analysts agree with you.
Simples DI.
2 things stood out from today's announcement, viz :
- normally financial performance is shown as PBT (Profit, or Loss as may be, BEFORE Tax) whereas chose to flatter Net Loss, quoted as £1.76M, only AFTER writing in an estimated Tax Refund/Credit to be claimed against R & D Costs. Excluding, Operating Loss £1.96M as per P 6 L Statement. However,
- included in latter figure was an Additional £0.55M (£0.1M H1 22) of Non Cash & Other One Off Charges which need omitting if to fully appreciate true operating position
Therefore, I deducted, and, for prudence, rounded up a bit, to come to £1.46M.
All covered under FINANCIAL REVIEW on Page 7 of 8 of today's RNS and elsewhere if one chooses to look.
Taking all into account and on the basis of regular recurring operational and administrative costs (state no change in company headcount) one can visualise, even though some expenditure has been reclassified to take account now more than just an R & D company, now have a reasonably static core cost base. The only caveat is R & D may continue to vary, up or down, depending on what holds in the future but for the present one assumes more of the same. On this premise I applied the same metrics displayed in today's figures i.e
- units sold in H1 given, in general terms, as 200,000 (say =£5M in sales)
- receivables/revenue of £1.7M equates to 34% of cash sales
- GP c53% of Revenues
To project forward a potential BE point which, for a half year, I see as follows
- 500,000 unit sales & £25 a pop = £12.5M
- Revenue ratio of 34% gives Receivables of £4.25M
- continued GPM of 53% yields GP of £2.26M
less
- core cost base of c£2.3M
QED.
There are some variables that could come into play such as does the Revenue Receipt Ratio benefit as volumes increase and/or the GPM improves for the same reason. Either way I can, in my own mind, envisage where we need to get to to start seeing all turn into a sustainably profitable company a la JB
Others have made comments about :
MANUFACTURING
All outsourced, as fully covered in current/past communications though whether have assisted such parties with some early capital/set up costs not known, as far as I am aware. However, with P & E in BS of nigh on £1.1M one could think have invested something into the manufacturing process for the third parties unless totally related to equipment etc. required in own R & D activities.
CASH POSITION
It should be remembered that the company now have some elements of working capital to finance, notably carrying almost £1M of Trade Receivables (as at 31/08/23 will probably be somewhat higher given increasing volume/sales levels) which will have absorbed a like amount of ££££, so this must be factored into some peoples thinking of why cash not as one might have expected.
Hoping the Market/the Analysts understand all of this as if so let us see the SP reflect accordingly.
Fum have actually made all those things clear. Suggest with respect read back through all Rns.
Anyone know how the manufacturing works?, does FUM pay a third party to manufacture the product? Initial tooling setup & then a fixed amount per unit? Looks like manufacturing costs are 50% of FUM’s share or about £4 per unit which seems steep? & on top they have setup costs which also eats into profit but will be temporary! Thank god! Guessing building stock levels for launches will eat into profit initially which is probably the reason for break even in 2024? Sorry just speculating & trying to understand the figures, shame FUM couldn’t make these things clearer!
Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12531821/Spider-venom-new-Viagra-researchers-say.html
TLDR: boners in our wallets soon. So in those assumption of yours where is the other 0.3m loss gone on?
JB spoke of Revs & GP (margin c53%) c4mins in to today's interview all of which can actually be seen in the detailed P&L & associated BS found in Company Documents in Investor Centre page of company website.
Expenses/Costs in H1 23 incl c0.5M of additional One Offs, in reality leaving Op Loss (pre effects of any taxation) of c1.46M.
Extrapolating the numbers out and presuming all factors i.e margins, admin/R & D costs remain similar, a quick calculation suggests operating breakeven for H2 23 could be achieved on 500K of product unit sales (=£12.5M) - given that sales volumes will have progressively grown since Belgium/UK launch one could envisage run rate is now greater than the 200K unit sales announced as having been effected during the HI (effectively Q2). On my estimation target for BE is 80/85K of unit sales p.m. which according to JB narrative, clearly thinks is an achievable target for 2024 which is only 3 months away from starting!! My assumptions regarding profitability discount any financial effects of the Haleon up front payment as depending on the terms of the agreement may well have to be amortised over a given period.
All we need to get to the "Promised Land" is to keep hearing the tills ringing!!
10 more countries going live in next few weeks/months
New Asia deal to be announced with huge interest.Possible new upfront payment to be received
Most commercial agreements consist of staged payments, especially regarding companies doing the heavy lifting.
The biggest take away from the results for myself was the clarity of figures enabling PI,s to calculate the standing of the company. It is clear that, as Barder reiterated several times through the interview, the company is now well placed for the future. The SP trajectory is still headed one way, and should be aided and abetted by interjection of news of deals and launches. I personally feel more confident now.
Where is all the profit going in 2024, that’s a big chunk of cash?? I’m guessing the setting up of additional manufacturing plants but seems steep! £6mill from current selling territories, the £3.2mill upfront payment & at least the rest of Europe and Saudi revenue, must be talking £15mill at least!
Which for me shy is an odd one cos they didnt need to report it as it wasnt in the current reporting period. August cash balance is for the next reporting period not this one so felt like a "we will just leave this one here" moment. Like someone said, launch costs etc but why mention a cash balance as of last month....
Terrific proactive interview and I do like the fact that JB is now ‘ shouting from the rooftops’ as the blood, sweat and tears of Pharma development and the associated risks are in the rear view mirror for Med 3000/ Eroxon. I was previously critical of JB’s downbeat demeanor but I am delighted that he now feels he can, publicly, bask in the glory of revenue generation and a very healthy cash position so we have no concerns about dilution into the future. Whether new innovations such as promoting for the female market are likely, time will tell but the management team are not sitting around twiddling their thumbs with numerous new commercial deals and a US launch to think about in coming months. Must be good fun going to work atm and in time the market will catch-up but for now we can sit back and look forward to what I hope will be regular updates on the commercials deals, patent extension when agreed and the US launch timescales etc. Finally, I sense that they were cautious in giving forward guidance ( excluding US which is significant) which IMO is eminently sensible as the real money to be made as a shareholder will not be this week or next week but after a year or two of increasing revenue and the establishment of Eroxon as a worthy competitor to Viagra and Cialis and an innovator in the growing sexual health markets across the world. In the meantime if someone wants to buy us then they will have to sweet talk Lombard Odier and I suspect that they are as excited as we are about the potential here so in the event that we do attract interest they will drive a hard bargain, that, I have no doubt. The Futura is bright!
utter *******s .they said costs increased to enable launches
"• Cash position at 30 June 2023: £7.8 million (30 June 2022: £6.68 million)
• Cash position as at 31 August 2023: £9.36 million which includes $4 million upfront milestone payment from Haleon plc"
----------------
Forget the $4m milestone - the bad news is that cash fell from £7.8m to £6.3m in two months (July and August) so they appear to be burning £0.75m per month.
Numbers are mentioned in this interview
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1026789/futura-medical-on-track-for-a-profit-in-2025-after-strong-first-half-1026789.html
Here is link: not taken down
https://www.futuramedical.com/investor-centre/videos-and-webcasts/webcasts/