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Share fails to move despite excellent news.
The stock is dead but not the company.
I hope it goes down to CAD 0.09 - 0.10. I will buy some Falcons in this price range as I think that the company is not far away from monetizing its assets.
I'm firmly in the Wetwater and the Newtofo camp when it comes to Mr Smallfish. I put him on ignore some weeks ago. I don't therefore get upset with a lot of the nonsense he writes on this board.
As for Falcon's future, matters are going to become a lot clearer once we find out how Tamboran is going to tackle its funding challenge.
805slo:
Yes I'm aware that the goal has always been to sell and I have bought into that strategy. My concern is that I expected the share price to increase accordingly (due to test results, proven acerage) prior to any sale. I understand the variety of take out options available and how the selling SP would be derived. Simplistically, as an investor, I want to see the SP grow and then see the another bump for the takeover. Then I'm out. That's what my plan has been since 2017. Others may vary. This M&A will be asset based and my concern is we will not see proper asset value at time of sale. Selfishly, the (my) sell price will not be where I believe it should be. I realize that this is a smart group and I don't have to delve into the details of how M&A's work but that is what my investment plan was/is for this asset. And with all the added delays (goal lines moving), maybe my frustration has surfaced. TGIF. Have a great weekend everyone.
Smallfish9: What did you mean with your following statement - "The only one here who benefits is the latter. Sold, done, out." I took that to mean you had sold and were done with Falcon? If so, why do you continue to provide this board with all your comments? You seem to indicate Falcon has no real practical value. If you are still invested in Falcon I apologize - Just trying to figure out which box to put you in.
Smallfish9 -- while your concerns about Falcon having almost zero value (5%) over the next 130 wells to be drilled around the SSH2/SSH3 site -- even Tamboran's own press release this morning (below) seems to challenge your position that Falcon's value is next to worthless.
While Falcon has pulled back on its fund raising requirements to 5% on that 51,000 acre block (and pushed Tamboran's and Daly Waters massive funding commitments from 38.75% each to 47.5% each on the next 130 wells) -- you seem to have discounted that Falcon, (and more importantly any buyer of Falcon) still has a 22.5% interest in both the remaining 950,000 acres in the Core deep blue area, along with 22.5% interest in the remaining 3 million acres that are covered by Falcon's three permits in the Beetaloo.
"The 1 million acres of deep shale in the Beetaloo West have potential to deliver
Tamboran’s gross Beetaloo Basin production ambition of 2 Bcf/d (~775 MMcf/d net to Tamboran)
(equivalent to more than 13.0 million tonnes per annum of LNG export capacity) for 40 years from a single
landing zone".
Smallfish -- even after discounting Falcon's share of the Pilot area of 51,000 acres (which is only 5% of the entire deep blue core one million acre area) -- Falcon is still has a forward discounted interest of 400 MMcf/d of that gas out of that 2Bcf/d total for just the dark blue core one million acre zone.
This is enough gas (just from Falcon's share of that one million deep blue core area) for someone like Inpex to commit to building their third LNG train in Darwin before their projected start date of 2030 for that third LNG train. What makes Falcon's non-operating position even more important for a potential buyer like Inpex -- is Inpex has no interest in being an operator, but rather just wants access to that Beetaloo gas at the very discounted cost of production (even after the ORRI's and gov't 12% tax rate are included).
Someone like Inpex couldn't care less about Falcon cutting it's interest down to 5% on that current 51,000 acre block -- as Inpex won't be looking for Beetaloo gas to be flowing to that third LNG train until 2030 for their third train proposed start date. While the fit with Inpex as a buyer of Falcon's share of the Beetaloo gas in nearly perfect-- their are numerous sovereign wealth funds in Asia, or other gas companies like EQT -- that won't be too concerned about Falcon missing out on that first 51,000 acre block, but rather will be paying more attention to the next two full length 3km horizontals (that Tamboran and Daly Waters will be paying 95% of the very exorbitant costs to prove up).
Frackme, I'd say you're pretty much correct. Having waited years for a catalyst to finally move the stock price up, getting the catalyst but only losing value, I'd say we're 6-8 months from the next potential event. I think we are looking at years more of waiting or a low ball offer from BS or his associates. If no offer, BS can continue to bleed FOG and TMB for their share of drilling costs over the next 2-5 years, causing more dilution and a cheaper pick up for him. Frankly, I'd rather have the lowball offer and hopefully it stimulates a bidding war. JMHO
Yeah the problem with that idea is the JV in play with BS. Bryan won't want to sell necessarily and unless they have a JV that allows them split up the 77% then it might stalemate. Looking at YTD Tamboran and Falcon are both down 20%. From a logically stand point it makes no sense as before the results the Gov risk was the same, demand was the same and it was obvious all parties would need to raise capital. Only thing that has changed is the gas flow rates which have delivered way over expectations so it's either both companies are being hollowed out by a trading strategy that is designed to crash the share price which I don't believe or a combination of day traders who love volatility and jumpy retail investors are driving the price down in low volumes which I think is much more likely. Either way the next 3k well will either be the final nail in the coffin or the start date for pulling a prospectus together. Not sure Falcon can start a sale process on the back of the last shortie no matter how good the results. It's like waiting for a bus....you keep being told to wait but you get colder and wetter.....some people pack up and go home others stay and wait it out. The bus either comes or it doesn't and depending on what happens you have winners and losers.
One thing, that Tamboran and Falcon have in common, is that they're both going to run out of money in the future. A solution would be to sell a chunk of their acreage to a bigger company and split the proceeds 77.5%/22.5%.
The sooner the better.
Large companies makes strategic moves for years and decades in advance.
Look at take overs of the past to see this. Again pointing to cove energy - they were sold in 2012 and the LNG is only just getting to the point of being monetised I'm the near term by those that hold interest.
It's completely normal for a big gap between sale and a full income stream to flow to whomever buys or is involved at that later time.
Yes a Fidelity account.
So, somebody is going to jump at the opportunity to pony up for a non-op interest with no decision making capacity on an asset where the next ten years of drilling activity will return 1/4 of the rate that the wells after the 130th one will? Not to mention being ruthlessly abused on fees and JV expenditures to get the gas to market?
I hope you're young, because the chance there's any value in the next ten years is inferior to every other player in the basin's potential tomorrow.
I'm guessing that's an American account?
I think the listing on the US exchange is starting. My Fidelity account is moving shares to Yo bought Tamboran res corp 200:1
Great results! I hope that the market takes some small notice of this.
Https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/4c2fa866-ca5.pdf
Why would there ever be a sale??? Except for the fact that the area is being gradually proved up and eventually major players will want to buy the asset. If Sheffield waits forever the train will leave, same with any other potentially interested party.
This is how small exploration companies succeed and how large companies can often avoid early exploration and the financial and PR risk involved in duds and misses
I'm sorry in advance. But why would he ever take Falcon out?
At every stage along the way POQ's inability to create a viable array of funding options just results in further dilution of the interest? Sheffield isn't stupid, he will play that cycle as long as he can.
There's no sign of it stopping, the pattern is relentlessly consistent.
Needs to be remembered that if he buys lots cheaply, he can pay more to buy out the rest as his stack has cost so little and his average takeover price will be between the two.
It's needs an additional party to also try to bid to get fair price - such as happened with cove energy.
Jumped from around 10-20p to 70p with first offer and then more bidders appears, £1.95 Shell, £2.20, final sale was 240p ish. Remember shareholders get to vote on accepting a takeover.
That's the type of scenario to get fair value.
I would definitely be looking at well over a billion to get near fair value, but it will need more wells. Hence the recent raise really was a positive.
If Bryan Sheffield is busy loading up with shares @ 6p then I assume he thinks (so do I ) they are worth a lot more than the current SP of 6.5p !
Tired states,
"Selling price > share price. Price is based on the assets not share price. Sorry to disappoint you."
Well let's hope the sale price is higher than the share price since the share price is so stunningly low. And I believe it will be, just not by that much. And while the sale price should fairly value the assets (among many other things), the share price should also reflect the value of the assets, the business, the potential, etc and the market is telling us it's worth about $.09 US. It's worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it.
Shank, I am confused by your post. The goal has always been to sell. The goal line just keeps moving.
Scinceday, Q2 is what was reported but it appears TBN is still waiting for EMP approval.
https://depws.nt.gov.au/onshore-gas/environment-management-plan/emps-under-assessment
Frackme, agreed. I also think there is risk of getting taken over and taken private.
...already...
With the signing of the binding GSA agreement amongst all interested parties and recent additional marketing, it would appear they are moving forward at this point. The upcoming announcement of the IP90 flow rates will merely confirm to us what they all ready know. My guess is that's a good thing.
I know things haven't gone our way lately but there are new holes on the horizon. Has anyone heard when these might be kicking off ? All i remember is 2nd quarter but have they said anything more specific on when these might be started ?