Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Hardrock, just curious as to what brought you to this forum?
@hydrogen - because all three Tanumbirini wells are drilled at the same location (reasons beyond my understanding), adding reserves would be problematic. There is ~1000m radius increase with laterals and the reserves assessor can take it into account. But this is nothing like having two other wells 15-20km out and expanding reserves over a much larger area.
But there will be substantial uplift in valuation if clear path to commerciality (>>5mmscf/day/well) is demonstrated.
Darnitagain,
Maybe, but the momentum is now with developing a shale gas industry and it has widespread support.
The award was legal costs only - I think it's just positioning and the family looking to maximise future income.
Dragging on or more years I could do without.
Setbol,
This is going to be very expensive, and unless there is a large ransom paid upfront with a serious royalty arrangement following, I think this could drag on for years.
In any event, I suspect the problem will go away once a financial agreement has been reached.
I have a vague recollection that post moratorium either the same family, or the previous owners, made a big song and dance around no drilling / fracking on their land.
Think it was an article that Schlemiel posted but my memory is hazy
new,
I'd like to fantasize if Tambo/Santos have a hiccup in the drilling Origin could pickup their guys and have them work on the Orgin/Falcon prospect. One can dream.....
JS490 -- while this is largely a Santos problem for sure, there is no question it is a set back for Tamboran and for all the Beetaloo players. Without Santos doing any further work towards commercialization in 2022 -- all players in the Beetaloo will feel the impact of that decision. This includes Tamboran -- who were counting on Santos to drill two more horizontals this year on EP 161 of which Tamboran is a 25% owner.
It appears, (from the additional map link below) -- that Tambo's proposed Maverick well is just on the border of the Tanumbirini Station and the Beetaloo Station, but does look to be on the Beetaloo Station side from the attached map. This would indicate that Tamboran should have no issues moving forward with the Maverick well this year -- (which helps all Beetaloo players) -- provided that the flow rates from the current Santos horizontals are above the 3 mm cf/d minimum threshold.
https://ca.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/957820/tamboran-resources-welcomes-successful-drilling-completion-of-tanumbirini-2h-well-by-santos-957820.html
It seems to me that's largely Santos' problem. They're the one who made that deal with the Court settlement, ...not Tamboran.
Luckily for Tamboran, they plan on drilling the Maverick 1-H well this year on their 100% owned and operated EP136 permit, ... the northern portion of which is smack dab in the heart of the 'Core Beetaloo'. ; )
jmo
Santos appears to have a fairly large area on the southern half of EP 161 that is NOT on Tanumbirini Station lands. This -- hopefully indicates that Santos will continue with some sort of drilling campaign this spring in areas that don't conflict with their agreement with the pastoral lease holders of Tanumbirnini Station. However, the areas outside of the Tanumbirini Station lands appear to be well outside the core area -- so not sure what Santos will do this spring -- if anything??
Here are two maps if anyone is interested in comparing them to confirm that the southern part of EP 161 is outside the tile makers cow pasture. The first map link below is from the NT Gov't's site showing all pastoral leases and you can see the Carpenteria Hwy passing through the bottom portion of Tanumbirini Station's property.
https://nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/206089/map-of-council-boundaries.pdf
The second map link below is from Santos EMP and you have to go to page ix to compare the two maps. It is very clear that there is a reasonably large "L" shaped section of EP 161 that is below the Carpenteria Hwy and is not on the tile manufacturer's cow pasture.
https://depws.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/611813/EMP-santos-north-water-bore-monitoring-program.pdf
The only real concern that I can see from the map link below -- is that it appears that the Core Area that Tamboran has been promoting appears to be almost entirely on the Tanumbirini Station lands. The big "L" section, on the lower part of EP 161, looks to be outside the Core by a wide margin??
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/article/14188828/tamboran-gains-operatorship-beetaloo-assets-with-sweetpea-acquisition
Great analysis BorntoBouggie.
Atb,
Northern
Good turnover in London this week. Relatively little in the US OTC market. a bit more on the TSX.
Hydro's satellite pictures, for which we're all grateful , show that gas continues to flow to the surface at the Santos/ Tamboran Tanumbirini EP161 site. Santos own 30 day readings at the end of this month are now increasingly eagerly awaited Down Under on the ASX and this has been similarly mirrored this week on the TSX and AIM on our side of the world. Origin's shares this week, no surprise, after the return of many to their desks after their Summer break, has started to anticipate possible good news since the relative strength of their shares is clearly not just a reflection of strong energy prices.
The Santos news, when it comes, will tell us where Origin and FOG shares are going in 2022 and 1H 2023. Any repeat of Origin/Falcon's flows in the Amungee well in 2016 and August/September 2021 will transform analysts Beetaloo Basin perceptions and convince most to adjust their spread sheets not just to reflect increased pay grades across the Beetaloo and Greater McArthur properties but also the need to apply lower discount rates to their numbers as the probability of commercial development would have substantially increased. And the two together of course will give us our higher NPV's and a big bounce in the shares of all the companies involved.
Sometimes on this board investors have been critical of Origin's thorough approach and unwillingness to carry on in any way in a cavalier fashion. Last year (unlike EEG) they did not get mixed up in jumping the gun to obtain money on offer from the Federal Government without full compliance to the rules. They also do not have a similar problem as Santos this week of leaving themselves open to a property speculator acquiring a piece of Origin/Falcon land and holding parties to ransom. I rather shudder to think how exposed we might have been if Bruner and his cronies were still running Falcon today.
Nevertheless the Santos legal case is still an irritant but how great an irritant we'll have to wait to see as it will be dependent on how large the farmer's land is and how much it overlaps the Santos/Tamboran acreage.
IMHO Origin?FOG investors' focus in the next two weeks will focus more on the fact that we have the same geology as prevalent at EP161 everywhere across our 4.6 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin. In some areas the depth of the mid-Velkeri B shale formation is not so great as EP161. In others its very similar. In all areas the thickness of the 'mid Velkeri' B shale formation is circa 50 metres or more and very similar to the Santos/Tamboran properties.
Overall I remain quite hopeful. Many of you should feel the same.
"..and agreed not to undertake any further petroleum activities on EP161 at Tanumbirini Station until December 31, 2022."
Note: AT Tanumbirini Station.
I view this as they still may be able to conduct petroleum operations elsewhere in EP161.
Plus, they will continue to have these two current horizontals on long-term production tests.
jmo
ITguy and hydro -- it looks to me like there is something seriously wrong with the Santos settlement. Santos has drilled only four of it's nine well program to date and now they have agreed to do nothing until the beginning of the next wet season??? No E&P operations start at the very beginning of the moonsoons folks -- so what the heck is happening at the two Tanumburini wells that has Tamboran's share price stuck exactly where it has been for weeks???
"The court had heard Santos had permission for nine fracking wells on the cattle station, which had been negotiated with the previous owner, but had failed to inform Rallen of the revisions to the EMP which added the additional two wells".
https://www.google.com/search?q=tamboran+resources+share+price&rlz=1C1CHZN_enCA931CA931&oq=&aqs=chrome.3.35i39i362l7.152801164j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
New, maybe they like what they see and they will make a deal with Tamboran for EP136?
Villa and ITguy -- this update on Santos backing out of the Beetaloo completely until almost a year from now is REALLY disappointing news. This means no further work towards commercialization by Santos in 2022 and has to make you wonder what has happened at the two horizontal wells that has Santos so concerned that they aren't ramping up but actually ramping down???
Santos agreed not to undertake any further petroleum activities on EP161 at( Tanumbirini Station )until December 31, 2022.
Tamboran is drilling 100% owned EP136 in 2022 though.
https://ntindependent.com.au/santos-agrees-to-pay-400k-to-rallen-over-beetaloo-basin-gas-wells/
They wanted $17m..settled for $400k. But after current flow testing, no more work on EP161 in 2022.