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I'm curious.
Assuming you are invested then why are you if everything is so negative?
What is it you want from this exactly?
I think we're quite possibly in the best place we've ever been. Just my view (and god knows I've been wrong before), but surely even you can see that?
Realism I can deal with. Negativity just for the sake of it is a bit of a struggle for me.
You may not like the management and you may not like the current share price, but you can't knock the asset.
Best of luck anyway Darnit - I guess we'll agree to differ until events prove otherwise
Not sure how you concluded "you seriously believe that we'll get nothing for our 1M acres of prime Beetaloo?" Oh well, I maintained the SP of Tambo and the SP of FOG are differentiated due to management and NOT resource. But, make no mistake, if it cost more to produce than you can make selling then you are going to go bankrupt. Management is the key to keeping cost appropriate to sales. And, if you want to see your bank shred your line of credit, all it takes is-- either via market pricing or mismanagement by the company -- to become uneconomic.
I know you've had a downer on Falcon for sometime.
Do you seriously believe that we'll get nothing for our 1M acres of prime Beetaloo?
I'd appreciate it if you could explain to me how that works.
The time of highest risk was surely the moratorium. Then we had Covid.
We've come through both with money in the bank and more drills on a free ride.
We have the support of government, we have other companies drilling; the demand is certainly there.
In what scenario do you seriously envisage Falcon becoming bankrupt?
There's a higher likelihood of Tamboran running out of cash before we do.
To imply that our acreage is potentially worthless is misleading at best.
Good luck though, whichever company you're invested in. I mean that - one does well in terms of flow rates, then we all do well.
Stebol, management is EVERYTHING. Think back to what Ultra managed to do with a massive basin resource--from over $100 US bucks to bankrupt and all due to management.
Nothing to do with management Darnit - an acre of Beetaloo is worth an acre of Beetaloo - discounts, premiums and share prices are irrelevant at this stage.
The Market is placing a premium on Tambo's management while assigning a discount to FOG due to management. Seems about right.
The other major difference between Falcon and Tamboran is that we've never needed to 'promote' the company.
Tamboran need funds, we don't because we're carried - it's as simple as that.
POQ has always said he will sell once the terms of the jv with Origin have been fulfilled. If he were looking to raise capital for any reason then I'm quite sure we'd do a 'Tamboran.'
Whilst the current share price may be frustrating for shareholders it won't affect the final sale price. Every acre of our Beetaloo will be worth the same, if not more, than Tamboran's acres.
On that basis alone, Falcon is a steal (if you're a believer, which I most certainly am).
If I understand newtofo correctly, Tamboran's market capitalisation is almost double that of Falcon, but a reasonable valuation of Falcon's assets would be double the market capitalisation of Tamboran.
That suggests that Falcon's share price should be four times what it is now, which would make it nearly 32 p.
I must say that I'm still wondering what it would take to get the share price to that level, bearing in mind that it almost reached that level BEFORE the moratorium was lifted, when the possibility existed that the whole project would never even get off the ground.
I see again Mr Newtofo that our comments have crossed. We both have the same conclusion but well done indeed for digging out the Stockhead article that is just not an useful map but articulates nicely the views of Tamboran's Mr Riddle. It's obviously important to FOG that ORG will take similar steps to Tamboran next year to make sure they are contracting with a crew from the contractors who have the US specialist experience in the Permian Basin to help them best target the right depths and bring down the drill costs of their two planned horizontal wells
That's sort of back of the envelope value I am using on still on my way to 10million and hope to finish by year end. POODS
Just some fun with numbers for weekend reading.
With the recent stock offering by Tamboran (the rising Beetaloo Star) -- they have increased their share count close to 3/4 of billion shares I believe currently -- which compares to Falcon's almost one billion shares outstanding.
Tamboran is currently trading at 40 cents Aussie dollars which on conversion works out to 37 cents Cdn -- which gives Tamboran a Cdn market cap that is close to $277 million. Falcon is currently trading on the TSX at 14 cents Cdn -- which works out to $140 million for Falcon's current market cap. This gives Tamboran an equivalent trading value that is almost exactly double what Falcon is currently trading at.
Since both Falcon and Tamboran's assets are entirely tied up in the Beetaloo -- this begs the question as to which of the two companies has the greater value in their Beetaloo holdings?
Tamboran owns 25% of permit #161 with Santos controlling the remaining 75%, and I am fairly sure that Tamboran has to pay it's proportional 25% of all exploration costs on permit #161. Falcon by comparison owns 22.5% of all three Falcon permits and is fully carried on the past 7 wells including the next two horizontal wells to be drilled by Origin.
Tamboran owns 100% of permit #136 -- where they are proposing to drill their Maverick well, but two very substantial caveats go with EP 136. When looking at the overall map of the Beetaloo on the link attached -- it is fairly clear that the majority of EP 136 is outside of the CORE Beetaloo -- plus Tamboran will be responsible for 100% of all costs to drill the Maverick well. This will most likely require further share offerings by Tamboran as we know that the current exploration wells are extremely expensive to complete.
If you compare Falcon's 1 million net acres across the three Falcon permits versus Tamboran's 25% of EP 161 -- there is no question that the total acreage controlled by Falcon is many times that of Tamboran's 25% of EP 161. A closer look at the Beetaloo map link below really raises allot of questions on the value of Tamboran's 100% of EP 136 since their own map shows the majority of EP 136 is way outside the CORE? We now know -- from all five of Origin's regional wells drilled across the majority of Falcon's three permits -- that the mid-Velkerri B shale is prevalent across almost the entire 4 million acres.
When I look at these comparisons -- I believe that the market has it asx backwards -- with Falcon's valuation realistically at double what Tamboran's is currently -- but that shows the value of good promotional work done by Tamboran on the CORE Beetaloo. Origin is not a start-up E&P company like Tamboran -- so isn't playing the promo game -- which hurts Falcon's share price currently, but shouldn't affect the final selling price when potential buyers do the math -- IMHO.
https://stockhead.com.au/energy/tamboran-is-positioned-to-be-the-beetaloos-rising-gas-star/