The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yeah but none of that reflects what we see. There was talk about 6-7k acres not 25k acres. There are less than 200 25k lots in the 4.5m. I'm not sure there will be buy backs either. The question is how long will it take them to work their way through the estimated 138 wells. While FOG won't be a producer a potential buyer will care about their ability to par take in the short to medium term as the window for oil and gas globally is closing due to the green initiative. I'd say we are fine but realistically I think being able to buy into these 2 wells at 22.5% would be the ideal scenario and once we buy into the first well in the 25k acres at 22.5% we have the option to go in at 22.5% for every well in that 25,000 acres thereafter. At 5% we are limited to 5% or less for the next 138 wells if they stay in this area. If a big producer buys us out they may look to do a checkerboard deal with the JV over the whole 4.5m acres to allow them get moving at pace and not be tethered to the pace of the JV.
The participation agreement was a master stroke to be fair as it gives us options and stops us from being forced to sell early because we can't pony up the funds I'm not sure if dropping to 5% would have been better than doing a raise though. Only time will tell.
In the Investor meet 18th Jan about 17:30 mins in POQ mentions the option out and the fact that FOG could potentially buy back in if the well was a success- he estimates cost to buy back in at 3 times the initial drill cost but he is not precise. What he does say is that there are 718units across the Beetaloo and though missing out on 1 might seem a lot, it is relatively small in the grand scheme of things.
https://falconoilandgas.com/video-presentations/
look at his answer about 17mins 30s into the questions for 18th Jan 2023
Conserving cash and not diluting is a very good strategic move- the market has marked us down but you can't trade FOG shares as the risk of an opportunistic bid is increasing. Day to day you just have to ignore the small sells and accept that the big picture is only seen when the company gets sold.
For what it’s worth I tried buying another 500,000 shares yesterday and only got 88,500 shares. Do you think POQ was competing with me? A little morning humor there!
POQ has done many good things and been well-compensated. BUT, he’s ignored for too long and now too late my suggested reverse split that would have instantly made FOG investable for smaller institutions and in the U.S., investors precluded due to a price below $5-10, depending on individual firm requirements.
Fortunately, there’s a chance God is looking out for us or BS or others may buy us for a pittance.
Frustrating but perhaps worth adding few more shares. POODS
You are correct bonjourno. I am not sure what the exact cost is, but I believe it is fairly steep. However, any deep pockets buyer of Falcon's 22.5% interest in the Beetaloo will have that option going forward, and in the interim Falcon continues to husband it's remaining cash balance.
Marshmill -- unfortunately my old adage is still in effect and you are correct -- as we have very few new buyers and lots of tired old ones like myself that can't hang on forever -- LOL. Therefore -- you should get a chance to pick up a few added shares lower -- but if ever there was a time when I wouldn't want to be out of Falcon (in case of a wild card buyer stepping in unexpectedly) -- this is getting very close to that time -- (hopefully -- LOL).
Just in case Smallfish doesn't repost (here) his comments from the Tamboran HotCopper bulletin board regarding today's Sentinel satellite flare shot -- it is worth taking a quick read over on HotCopper. Smallfish made some interesting comments regarding the overall slightly larger flare size of the flare from this weeks satellite shot.
Hi newtofo- isn't here an option for FOG to buy back into any wells which it has not fully participated in ? I recall POQ saying that they could do this - admittedly at a higher cost- but if the wells are a success then any future buyer just pays a multiple of the initial drill cost and regains the 22.5% or whatever they decide. Key here is the repurchase is based on drill cost not on the drill success.
Strategically this ability to decide participation at the outset with the ability to buy back in is a major benefit which the market currently just does not see. Any future buyers will see this and FOG is saved from currently diluting at such low levels.