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It is at good support level now so would be a good place to buy. The problem is broker has now pencilled in 2025 before they go back into profit and the Warhammer game does not sell as well as expected then revenues and profits will miss their targets. If you go onto forums for the warhammer game, players do not seem to think the game is good enough to warrant the game price. Last TR1 showed an institute selling, with their holding down to 6.9%. If they have decided to completely sell out then the share price will drop more. So buying now at a decent support level is really a gamble. Imo there are better companies out there to buy that are not as risky. It could go either way.
It seems to me overdone.
balance sheet seems ok to me.
I think, but maybe I am wrong, that someone is scooping up.
there are only 38m share outstanding ...
SP dropped 50% in one month 630 to 315. What is happening for it to drop so fast.
Https://twitter.com/F1Manager/status/1694630681383411736
Hopefully the delay is to fix some of many bugs.
The theory that they are releasing crap cos "they are deliberately driving down the equity value so it can be taken private for a pittance". Not likely, given much better ways of them destroying share value like restating the dodgy accounts around the last auditor resignation or fessing up to the humongous losses they're hiding on the asset register. Better because both would leave the game brand value mostly intact.
No, my theory is they are trying to make the best games they can. And they are succeeding. The only problem is their best is now fit for sale only at a price much lower than can cover costs, and they can't face this truth.
I've been thinking same about your last part, thought I was overreacting, does seem to be something going on here.
Or, its what AAAA1111 said about designing pc games for console, strategy games should 100% be PC first.
Going for the full market has ended up with games that should only be available on App Stores, not sure they've even figured it out themselves yet...
Or, we go back to ShearClass's last comment and they don't actually care how poor these products are with the option of going private.
Either way it's a mess & another Tr1 on its way, imo.
Jan 2023 headcount 845 and "We expect to continue to grow our team in FY23 and beyond" (last interim results). This is likely a factor ln the recent analyst talk of need to raise capital.
And regarding an II selling at these levels, I suspect it's because they don't have a clue what is going on.
Headcount & staff costs over the last 5 years at 31st May;
2018 - 345 - £16.2m
2019 - 420 - £23.5m
2020 - 496 - £27.5m
2021 - 584 - £31.8m
2022 - 716(!) - £37.7m
Their last own IP game, Planet Zoo, was released in November 2019 and was a massive hit. The 4 years since have seen them release a luke warm follow up to Jurassic World Evolution that significantly missed forecasts & then their F1 & Warhammer efforts.
In that time, research and development headcount has more than doubled, from 300 in 2018 to 610 in 2022...
Bear in mind that the £5-10m adjusted EBITDA loss they are forecasting for FY24 would in fact be a substantial profit had staff headcount been kept under control. To grow headcount without a commensurate increase growth in game development is simply bizarre.
It almost feels like they are deliberately driving down the equity value so it can be taken private for a pittance?
Ah so that's what has driven the further decline this morning - the below youtube review informs us that they've diverged from traditional RTS gameplay - the idea of enemies constantly spawning with no way to stop them doesn't sound enjoyable to me, certainly not for $60...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im7w-YV6eec
The medium term direction now appears to hinge on the "own-IP creative management simulation game" they have planned for release next year. It surely has to be Planet something... until they provide more detail I'm staying well clear.
But which genre did those people think this game is? Frontier are advertising an RTS but showing a lightweight console-style tactics game - which typically is priced around £20 or less.
https://steamcommunity.com/app/1844380/discussions/0/3816291531967827135/
60$?
played the beta, and this is not a RTS, not even a moba, its a tower defence basically, u get the capture point, put a turret or upgrade on it, and stand there, its nothing like DOW2 and def not worth 60 maybe 20
There's no market for strategy games on consoles. The entirety of the market is on PC. And by making a half assed console game on PC, they wont get neither the pc audience nor the non existing console one
This game looks like simplified Dawn of War 2. It would be fine if it weren't priced $60.
Hi there, well as a non gamer, I have just asked a room full of colleagues (40 approx) about this game and more importantly its price. Seems it is a well liked genre, about 75% of people know about it, price is lower than expected for nearly 75% of those that play, 25% thought about right.
It will be interesting to see the out come. Thanks for alerting me to the news.
And insane pricing. £50 to £65. This is going to be an epic fail. What we saw in the beta test was so shallow it cannot honestly be called an RTS game. Frontier has again jumped into a game genre and franchise it has no clue about with no understanding of what players want. Steam reviews will rip this to shreds znd leave it for dead in a week.
17th Nov 2023. Yes, 2023!
Whisp3rs39 You are entitled to your opinion. I am staying put. Would recover to just over 600. May not get back to £10.
Not to read too much into the trend following that RNS, but I would not be surprised by 10% SP drop when everyone else sees the news on Monday. And we can expect another fund TR1 within days.
& below 400 ;( Sorry Swingman, only trying to help people save money these days.
Well done he here who predicted a TR1. RNS today shows the big seller is Svedbank Robur. 7% left to go.
Very disappointing news. FD announces the first significant update will address only four of the hundreds of bugs reported. And is two or more weeks away. Far too late to recue sales.
https://steamcommunity.com/app/2287220/discussions/0/6363075944121453527/
"So is a 25% drop overdone on NO news"
The F1M mess-up is not no news.
"FDEV is still working hard and releasing titles."
Fewer this FY than half the previous.
And when those titles are as messed up as the last four from FDEV, then best they not be released at all.
The new CEO needs to make radical changes.
> He was obviously doing a lot of other, non-FD, stuff in last few years as CEO
Yes - obvious from the mess he left FD in. Fixing that up is going to be quite a challenge for the new guy.
Asa. 32.72% shareholder, you can be sure he calls the shots. He was obviously doing a lot of other, non-FD, stuff in last few years as CEO, and his succession planning gone badly awry with new guy, even if long time insider. Are they. All too old and out of touch? Tencent with their 8.6% must be fuming.
May well ripe for Takeover .....it seems the current team may have lost edge....we need cheaper high quality games at 19.99 not expensive gimmicks at 45 it's all about understanding your target market
"David Braben? Latter (and 33% owner!) will have to act soon"
How can he? He's lost exec position and majority control.
Someone is calling shots at high level. He who booted Braben l. But that's probably one of the bank investors, knows nothing of games. So not likely to act directly on the F1M fiasco.
No, action on F1M has to come from the CEO.
It’s fine having a cute private company where everyone gets looked after and treated like a lifer, and no one owns their failures, but when it’s publicly traded with other peoples money and the leaders keep releasing mess after mess after mess after mess …
The CEO has been in post for less than a year. We have seen no descisions from him. Too early to judge him a "rubbish CEO".
We should judge whoever decided to give that job to him, the Chief Creative Officer. Responsible for rubbish games ouput for the last few years.
Does anyone know who replaced him?