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Https://www.frontier.co.uk/investors/shareholder-information
Wow 32% holding
Ok, i'm a bit confused on the II's here.
I can see Invesco have reduced. Also Swedbank Robur as per RNS's 18th August and prior, but they are still higher than the 5.8% shown in the last AR so they must have increased and then thought better of it!
So who are Working Capital Partners? Never heard of them. They must be based overseas as they only disclosed at 5% (5% intervals is the threshold for overseas investors). Are they hedge fund, activist investor? Appreciate any feedback.
Ok, to be clear, for me it's not just about Warhammer: i think there is quite a lot of value in the back catalogue, there are some good developers, but too many of them, there is a chunk of cash still, and i think the market is potentially writing off Warhammer prematurely. The mood is so overwhelmingly negative that it makes me want to buy. I'm a fairly contrarian individual!
I have started with a small investment. If Warhammer flops then i will probably just sell at a loss. No big deal. If i see some cost cutting or takeover interest or improvements to Warhammer i may buy more. If that is at lower prices, great.
I rode this share from £1.70 to over £20 in quite a short length of time so that is why i say it moves quickly. When i bought shares just after the IPO, my buys were sometimes the only ones that day so yes it can be thinly traded which exaggerates moves in the SP.
I try to value the business as another games company would. They might think that £100m is cheap for a business with perhaps £20m of cash, some games such as the Planet games which have shown longevity, and a dev team that they could prune probably quite hard.
It's certainly possible the price could fall by half due to various II's selling out, but if the market cap falls to £50m i would be happy to buy more and average down. I've no ability to time the market i just try to buy stuff for less than i think it's worth. My guess is that the SP could drift lower, but there's always the chance that an RNS pops up one day saying its being taken over and then it's too late to get in. Who knows?
I try and size my investments according to my level of conviction. So that's low currently(!), but the fact i've got a few shares means i will follow closely going forward and see what happens.
ATB
Filippo I have been asking myself the same question.
I am not an expert but to sell you need someone to buy if there is no a buyer and you need a price. Who is buying at the moment is willing to buy at big discount. That is my opinion. The other thing is that also this shares as only 30m outstanding shares so a small sell is still a big sell. If you trow a stone in the sea you don't make big wave movement but if trow a stone in a small pond you can make a big movement
Gracious Prudent, I must thank you. One week ago I was about to buy, and my decision was based on the idea that bad news was already priced and nothing else could go wrong, and on the good previews of the warhammer thing. Luckily I stumbled on this site and read your, evidently well-informed, opinions. I hope I don't abuse your kindness if I ask you a couple of questions: How do you know that the development cost of W. is 20 mil? I don't find that kind of info in the reports. And then you wrote "That seller who was dumping 10K shares at 16:35 each day. Yesterday it was 20K. Today 30K. The daily SP fall is roughly proportional to the size of this dump." Can a daily deal of a few thousand pounds produce such a crash? Maybe the questions are too naive and you don't have the patience to answer, in that case, I completely understand and thank you again.
To crypto. OK so you are betting on Warhammer, but where is the sense in placing that bet now and then losing half your value over the next month of SP drop? Just hold back for one month and buy at the bottom the day before the Warhammer release.
I suggest to shareholders to email the boards to initiate buy back and director to buy some shares
Cascudi, after weeks of breaking the rules by concealing hareholding changes, Frontier on website have now come clean and declared the big sellers. It is the two top institutions, as I predicted. The lack of RNSs is a disgrace and I am minded to file a complaint on this. Meanwhile the shortage of buyers means these sellers' 8% will take about a year to clear their books. The SP has entered a nuclear winter.
Almost everyday there is someone offloading share. It must be an institution. Sadly there is no RNs to disclose them. Probably is selling slowly because market makers cannot find quickly a buyer. Until the seller is out this will continue to fall
"We know the free float is relatively small here which tends to emphasise moves in either direction."
Is that your theory for the one direction the SP has gone since the day of the last flopped game release? Down. 60%.
I think the better theory is the bank investor is pulling out, as we can see from the TR-1s on RNS. Hence the daily autosell driving down the SP.
The Warhammer question is not will it be less bad than it looks, or even how much of its ridiculous £20m development cost will have to be written off. It is, is it the start of a credible recovery plan that will persuade the bank to turn off its autosell?
Good luck with your buy in. See you in a week when you've lost another 15%.
Yank, i don't feel that DB is arrogant. My concern is that he is too paternalistic to make the job cuts required here and perhaps the culture is one where there isn't enough criticism of what is developed - they do seem to release buggy code, at least initially.
That said, i have made a small purchase this morning in the belief (hope?) that the Warhammer RTS isn't as bad as i originally thought. I quite like the editing features which seem to draw on their strengths from the various "Planet" games.
We know the free float is relatively small here which tends to emphasise moves in either direction. A MV of £100m might make them a takeover target, although i've never felt DB is likely to sell.
ATB
Damn right. The big investors would surely be delighted to take 200p per share at this point.
The question is, would Braben? He probably believes the current skyhigh broker valuation, meaning a quarter billion £ loss to him.
Braben has consistently shown the kind of arrogance that holds out until the house is smouldering ash. What he should have done is step up, apologise and promise a recovery plan, but the latest annual report is completely the oppsite.
Surely time to be taken private?
Questor truly overdosed on the Braben koolaid.
it’s like death by a thousand cuts… from what was promising a few years back- tipped by questor - it’s been **** ever since.. so far down feel like i might as well hang on - you never know !
truly awfully run business these last couple of years!
"If it drops below 250p, I am in."
There yiu go Teddy. 242p. Welcome to the FDEV club!
BoS not stupid? I would not bet on that. The four of them who bought shares this year before the F1 Manager release lost 50% of value.
However I would agree they are not so stupid as to buy now - before the F1 Manager 2024 sales figures are released, tanking the SP.
What kind of RNS do you think could have a holding effect?
Trading update? It would have to cough up the tragic sales figures for F1 Manager that the board concealed from last week's report, and equally tragic for the new Warhammer game, so the board will want to delay it until after November's game release.
CAS BOD are not stupid, they will know, where it is heading
Shame to not see any holding RNs and to not see any directors buys
to cascudi.
regarding shorters needing availability, all i can say that since january shorting has dropped to zero despite availability not dropping in the slightest- and arguably rising.
regarding price depression being due to tree shaking for a big buy order, this looks improbable for two reasons. one, the depressions caused by tree shakes are normally small, brief and sp****, whereas fdev's decline is none of these. two, any big buy order would be filled by our two big dumpers, obviating the need for any tree shake.
so the simplest explanation remains the best. the decline is caused by the daily autosells that are offloading the 10% of issued shares held by exiters swedbank and invesco.
At prudent
I agree with you
Also I have never done shorting but one think that normally shorters look is share availability. This company doesn't seem to have lots of share available to trade so should be quite risky to short. I wonder if there is a a big buy order on level2 and market makers are shaking the tree to get more share in order to fill that order. I can't see level2 myself but is anyone who could see that?
Teddy100, if you doubt my prediction of sp 250p in two days, then I've got to wonder whether you are aware of the current situation. You can verify the facts for yourself. The two big II shareholders are offloading. That means down down down until they are done.
No credibility, ignore this poster. Posted on the 31/08/23 on the Tinybuild BB. He probably doesn’t realise that his posts can be viewed!
“SmallHexTiles, pehaps checkout FDEV too. A very similar story, down 89% from peak, and probably not much further to go before reversal”.
Yes. Mcap £30m. Think tinyBuild.
> Didn’t you say on the 31st of August that Frontier hasn’t much further to drop?
Not me, chum. That would be a dumb thing to say what with the two biggest II shareholdings unwinding right now, with about 10% of total shares still to go.