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No one has really come up with a sensible response to this question regarding the stupidly low sp given the vast amount of resources EUA supposedly has: namely, it is most certainly not in EUA's interests for thew sp to be so low as the buyer will have to seek approval from its share holders for a Take over. Put yourself in their shoes and see how you'd feel about agreeing to purchase a junior mining company at 100s % premium to said company's mcap (or sp). Without knowing for sure what EUA was offering - almost no detailed info has been submitted to the market regarding the Flanks and DFS for WK - I would be scratching my head to try and justify spending a huge sum. I know we're in NDA territory but it would have to be one heck of a sudden revelation concerning what's in the ground from the buyer to get share holder approval. Thus the ongoing low sp can only be advantageous to the buyer in negotiations and not EUA. Mind you, I'm happy to admit I'm no expert.
i am trying to read positive things into what people are posting here but this nagging doubt won't go away. The RNS suggesting Christmas/Russian holidays got in the way of sorting stuff out now looks terribly flimsy. One more worry is that, what with all of their recent troubles, might NN have been forced to reduce their offer or even withdraw it, leaving other bidders with less cash to fight it out amongst themselves?
My one hope - I'll try to finish this post on a more upbeat note - is that CITIC will have oodles of cash to help Sibanye or Lesego do the deed. Outright sale would be my preference but still fairly happy if we end up with sale of MT (special divi) but keep WK. Details of DFS could finally be released and, if positive, that would help keep the ongoing sp stay roughly where it is.
Apologies for my inexperienced ramblings. I'm sure many will happily choose to ignore.
GLA
NN have MCAP $50B.
roger65....you hit the nail on the head with what you said..."the vast amount of resources EUA SUPPOSEDLY has".....SP Only reflects tangible known assets.....
Better not getting involved then Roger.
Great post roger totally agree
Especially Xmas and Russia holidays , this time next week we are half way through March? Next one will be Easter delay
Niggles me non binding offers in last year , but not one binding offer in more than 3 months? If the value and the desperate need for resources worldwide is true why no binding offer or update on why taking so long?
Maybe and this is a maybe.....once a deal has been agreed behind closed doors the NDA's no longer exist. The agreement between the companies involved is that eua can therefore release some of those resource figures which In turn gives a boost to the sp before the news of deal is released?. Therefore it seems like somewhat of a better deal for the shareholders of the buying company and less questions to be answered to those shareholders?
Maybe ,as the price is so depressed ,the company is leaving itself open to a hostile takeover
You can't say the price is currently depressed as at this moment in time the market can not value the company correctly as there are no up to date figures or Info to use due to the NDAs.
I'm no expert, but this is the way I see it that will go some way to dictate the sale price;
1. what is the total value of the metals etc in the ground based on current prices and projected future rates.
2. What is the period required to extract these materials and projected future costs.
3. What is the cost to extract the materials over this period.
4. Based on the above what profit do they envisage the mine could make
5. Based on all of the above they need to then consider what percentage of the profit they want to keep while giving some of this way to EUA. This is the part which i see has a game as if they go to low they coudl lose the bid to a rival hence the bidding game.
Appreciate that may sound simple but without knowing these projections i cant see how you can put a price on the sale price. And although I'm invested from many many moons ago (sub £0.01) i do not know the answer. Can anyone provide the figures that are based on educated assessments?
Lancerman I agree, and you know what happens if you repeatedly bang your head on a brick wall.
You end up predicting a sell price @£35 a share :-)
Lancerman....don't let them get to you....if you do, then you are beat.....
Its all a bit suspicious to me lancerman
Downthehatch - love reading post history last week predicting £2.40 a share. These people have an agenda. This will be huge just keep being patient.
I hope so
Dietch66, If you look at my post 9/2/21 i did a brief calculation based on information gleaned by myself and from others on this board .
I came up with a figure of £5 billion.
I'm not sure what people want. How can you complain about the lack of information with the same comment that they say "I know there are NDAs"
We as investors haven't a clue, but the board have all the information and so will prospective buyers. Just wait for the offer(s)... Or start a mining company worth billions and try to muscle into the FSP as a late bidder. They're the only options I see.
The fact it’s taking ages and there are many interested parties or suitors for an increasing demanded asset. Yes we don’t know what we have. But we have a BOD with serious skin in and have been the best BOD I’ve experienced especially on AIM by a mile. Just have to believe they want the best possible outcome. It’s their lifetime work and setting them to an new level of wealth status and options for further investment of their level.
Fair enough we had covid but deals like this shouldn't take this long. Only scenario I envisage there is a big discrepancy in the price the bod want and the offers.
This could be seen as a positive, a game of poker of you will. But we are at the point when someone will blink.
Easily possible that the bidders walk away. Which is a risk priced into the share price atm.
.........and that’s the ONLY scenario you can think of?
Really?
There are so many permutations and combinations but you can only think of 1 negative one........enough said!
But given we have multiple offers of a non binding nature that they are looking to progress to binding, would that nit suggest there is at least one that is broadly acceptable.
If the non bindings were too far away from your desired valuation, then they surely wouldn't be looking to progress to binding?
If they were too far away, would the RNS not been along the lines of having had non binding offers falling short of our valuation so not looking to progress?
Is the scenario of multiple interested parties in a bidding war not also something you could envisage? Would also explain the delay, if two parties keep outbidding each other every week
Open your mind a little......how about.....
Price expectation continues to be raised by the BOD based on metal price increases
There have been a number of offers and counter offers
It is taking a significant amount of time to determine the extent of the resources belonging to EUA
AP are still reviewing the extensive historical and recent data and are having to continually increasing the resources estimate
It’s a multi billion pound deal, you don’t sort them quickly
Just saying! There are other possible scenarios here.
The other big time consumer will be the bidders getting their own geologists looking over the drill results and resource estimates. This will likely involve significant queries and resolution imo.
Or if the bidders include NN and AA they will KNOW that AP's drilling data is legit!
RMR I appreciate your post but I was wondering what you mean by ‘counter offers’?
Everything RMR1969 said and maybe Sibanye keep being out bid which is why they have just called for mega merger with AngloGold so they can join forces to buy Eurasia. Just another scenario