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Verde are not stupid. Why buy at 2.4 and 4+ when they could hoover the shares up for 1.6p
30silver - Ah I didn't pick up on that you thought the company was actually running these entities. No, the pivot from November 2023 is basically equipment and engineering designs/support so the profit margin is up to the local entity to ascertain depending on local waste needs and requirements (e.g. fire regs in california).
Might be worth revisiting the site and rereading the recent RNSs.
GLA
Palumbo continuing to thrash the shareprice as usual in this POS.
Market Cap now under £3m and he is still determined to roll in the gutter with Verde and issue yet more confetti.
@Trytrytryagain It could be, as I said I'm familiar with the Company from quite some time ago, including a face to face meeting with the Chairman way back in 2018, I wasn't sure about the application of the technology on RDF then, and I can't find any evidence on the website (I'll admit I'm a LONG way from up to date on the RNS's etc) that they have any RDF plants up and running - the usual pre-requisite for an insurance wrap on performance. If you can point me towards the insurance company who will provide that cover, I know of a project site looking for technology and this would be a massive de-risking exercise for the developer as performance guarantees through an EPC wrap is not only nigh on impossible to find for kit other than HZI, but prohibitively expensive unless you're at massive scale (at which point you'd be using HZI anyway).
I think you're adding a step in which isn't needed, Silver. Eqtec won't own or run any plants (save MDC's) and the model is for large waste operators to own them theirselves IRO RDF, MSW etc. Small biomass are much more locally operated, especially in California, where I believe they're essentially paid by the government for the waste for fire prevention.
In either case, although Eqtec are pursuing the large RDF plants (and insurers are willing to insure the Eqtec technology at a very high operational availability), they have said their sweet spot for the tech is the NF size plants, running on waste biomass. These can be rolled out fast and (comparatively) cheap and are already almost cookie cutter in their similarity plants, with just minor adjustments for specific feeds.
30silver - no worries!
Yes reasonable route there. Everyone makes a profit - even if they have to double or triple the cleaning. Plus the EfW makes money on gas/energy outputs (obviously also has costs e.g. removing their unusable waste plus ashes).
I think most new investors are willing to give this pivot strategy a chance. I am.
Looks like we now have the trolls out trying make £5 on their CFDs.
It's amazing how many throw away comments there have been since the RNS. The basic maths even accounting for an unknown cost reduction clearly shows that there is not enough coming in for the short or medium term. They still need external finance.
The SP was catastrophic before but will continue to tank because without those funds no auditor in the land will sign off their accounts as a going concern. They need cash and they need to start winning contracts. Anyway you cut it this is still heading towards insolvency they need much higher revenues. Verde will have done their due diligence and they know this. This is such an awful company and DP and JVL should be removed but can't be because they've showered shares out to hands that are the only ones to have made money out of the collapse in value. This stock is a typical AIM sham company and the stock exchange itself should be ashamed to just allow these charlatans to continue.
The only time to buy would be if the BOD buy a decent amount, not 1% of their yearly salary worth!
It's obviously not going to recover. The trend is down and will be to 0.01. No one sane is buying
And anyone thinking of piling in at this level? Market cap will be less than Palumbo's yearly wages soon.
Sorry I mis-typed when I put sell, it was meant to be "send". You're right that the profit level to the waste processor seemed to remain constant, however the idea is that each stage of "cleansing" removes material that can either be sent off at little to no cost (such as rubble / hardcore) or could be sold for recycling (such as glass, metal, plastic etc).
As such each stage would have a weight reduction also, so in your example level 1, you'd have something like:
Waste Company:
Receives 1,000 tonnes of MSW @ £140 = £140,000
Cleans 1,000 tonnes @ £20 (£20,000)
Removes 100 tonnes @ £0
Sells 100 tonnes £40 = £4,000 (plastics, glass etc for recycling) It's actually more complicated with PRN's etc.
Sends 800 tonnes to EfW @ £80 = (£64,000)
Net profit: £60,000. (140k - 20k + 4k - 64k)
@30silver
Nope still not clear - in one breath you say that the W2E pays for the waste, and then you say depending on how clean it is the waste collector sells it to the RDF (W2E in my example - a catch all).
Waste Company +£140 from council
Waste Company pays e.g. Runcorn £100, profit excluding lorry/labour/admin costs £140-£100=£40.
Waste company cleans waste level 1 (e.g. mid-pedantically clean(!)) £20, Pays RDF £80, profit unchanged as RDF has to spend another £20 cleaning it to level 2 if needed
Waste company cleans waste level 2 (e.g. 3/4pedantically clean(!)) £40, Pays RDF £60, profit unchanged as RDF has to spend another £20 cleaning it to level 3 if needed
Waste company cleans waste level 2 (e.g. fully pedantically clean with a bow wrapped in gift wrap(!)) £70, Pays RDF £30, profit unchanged, RDF needs to do no extra work to process the waste.
From a governmental point of view to avoid a build up of dumped waste, there could even be incentives to offset an negative part of the economical model as converting the waste to something useful is always better than just sticking it in the ground/shipping it to another country (of which I think noone takes our rubbish anymore).
This applies to the 60+types of waste, depending on what is relevant. In addition, I would say more smaller, local facilities trump fewer larger facilities due to waste transport costs and distance users are from the gas/energy outputs.
@MyIPA - you're absolutely correct about the gate fee issue, I think maybe I wasn't clear. Essentially the W2E operator charges a gate fee for the material they receive, and the more fussy they are (i.e. the more work the waste processor has to do in providing the material to the W2E operator) then the gate fee falls, but this means that the W2E operator has less gate fees for their material (it also usually means it rises in CV, which means the same plant can process less tonnage, so you get hit twice if your'e the W2E operator) so they need to recover more from the sale of power / gas / oil etc.
Let's say that Eqtec are running their own plant, getting the waste from, for argument's sake, Biffa.
Biffa collect MSW from council contracts at around £140/tonne, give or take, then they have options:
- They can send this straight to large incineration (such as Wilton, Runcorn, etc) and pay £100-110/tonne.
- They can spend £20/tonne to process it to RDF, gain some revenues from recyclate sales, then sell that RDF to a W2E plant at £90/tonne.
- If Eqtec want a very clean waste, the work that has to be done might cost £40-60/tonne, as such the residual gate fee to Eqtec in that scenario is c.£40-50/tonne, which would in most cases completely break the economic model.
All of those figures are for example purposes only, I've no idea what the processing costs are as I've not seen them published, the gate fees are widely available (although I'd suggest a pinch of salt with them).
30silver - very interesting and great to get an expert driven opinion on the technology! I guess he we are specifically talking about waste to gas rather than waste to energy:
When I mentioned reduced gate fees I meant that the more work the waste handler does in making sure the waste is clean, the less the W2E plant (no idea if that is a usual acronym) has to do so it can charge less money from the waste company to handle the waste.
I think it is the other way around to what you say - the waste company usually -pays- the waste facility to get rid of the waste via whichever method, and the energy is then sold. The waste company has already charged the customer (be it a dump or council or whatever) to take the waste away, part of which will be these gate fees. Otherwise, what incentive does the waste company have to not just dump the waste in a field.... or even bother to collect it in the first place? They certainly don't get paid by the energy facililty.
A) pay a dump fees to dump it and store it
b) pay a W2E facility fees to take it and create gas -> energy for it (cheaper as offset via gas (energy) generation).
Am I missing something?
@MyIPA - thanks for the info. Unfortunately it's a story I've heard many, many times before and I've physically visited gasification plants (advanced and then some not so) in locations throughout the UK, Europe and Asia - all of them had the exact same issues - heterogeneous feedstocks (and in particular major issues with low ash-melt point plastics leading to clinker formation). Not a single one of them ran consistently at anywhere near the stated capacity (once they moved out of the safe, sterile test environment into the real world, running on genuine, mixed waste feedstock).
Gasification of clean biomass to make biochar works 100% technically, but with the prices of clean biomass nowadays, it's potential economic suicide.
You're right in that feedstock cleanup (for example to move from MSW to RDF, or from RDF to SRF) is possible, but it's expensive, which as you rightly point out results in the reduced gate fees that can be charged by the business accepting the waste. Taking SRF at £40/tonne means you need to get a LOT for the power you produce, which lends itself to very small, on-site applications predominantly focused on the displacement of diesel for power-constrained sites - I know of two such sites that have recently gone through planning and I'm eager to see their performance.
"Waste to X" applications such as hydrogen, syngas methanation, synthetic oils etc is definitely a possibility, the issue for me is on economics, in terms of can you actually get a customer for the byproduct which whilst technically very clever - might be prohibitively expensive.
EQTEC expects Weighbridge sale to complete this month https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1046609/eqtec-expects-weighbridge-sale-to-complete-this-month-1046609.html
Visiting host - for someone who only comments on this board for the last 9 months, which is very strange, it's a bit of an odd view considering the company is making revenue so customers must think it works in some shape or form. Guess you sold out of PHE last June (oops). But then you were fully negative on that board as well.
but what do I know, 600k for Q1 revenues and increasing after the pivot from late last year away from high risk high capital projects. Oh and that 15m revenue stream by Q1 2025. I guess all those customers and company are just kidding themselves when they are producing energy and selling it. \.o./
Gasification like EQT is a dead end, I commented it months ago, it is a very expensive tech since you have to spend a lot of money in cleaning up the syngas and this makes the whole gasification not economically viable
There are no shortcuts, it is just like that.
Hi 30Silver, welcome to the board, or what's left of it! Nice to have another view on EQT especially by someone who claims to know the Dee-side of things.
Like many other LTHs I am way down, in danger of disappearing .
"The Company uses its advanced gasification technology to generate safe, green energy from over 62 different kinds of feedstock, such as municipal, agricultural and industrial waste, biomass, and plastics. The Company collaborates with waste operators, developers, technologists, engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractors and capital providers to build sustainable waste elimination and green energy infrastructure. It operates through two segments: Power Generation and Technology Sale. The Technology Sales segment is engaged in the sale of gasification technology and associated engineering and design services. The Power Generation segment is engaged in the development and operation of renewable energy electricity and heat generating plants. Its gasification projects convert waste into clean energy, hydrogen, biofuels, synthetic natural gas (SNG), and biochar from various sources. It operates across seven markets."
30-Silver - I guess like any waste to energy plant there devil is in the detail, however this doesnt stop a sorting method and some form of variable fee for processing. The cleaner and less non-useful fuel feedstocks provided by the waste company, the lower the fee charged. To be honest, this could be a business in itself. Compared to the other projects the company is involved in the RDF stream you speak about is just one part of it. "QTEC technology is at the heart of leading-edge, waste-to-energy and biofuels plants which convert waste into clean energy, hydrogen, biofuels, SNG and biochar from four sources:" https://eqtec.com/gasification-projects/
Gotcha, the jury's still out for me on gasification of RDF, especially given the failures of Outotec, Energos, Air Products. Small demo plants are all well and good, but commercial scale plants at more than 3 tonnes per hour are another matter. I'l have look into the two university projects, the big issue with a lot of those is that they don't accurately represent the fuel supply that will be received, as it's often very carefully sorted and waste companies will try and sneak all kinds of sh*te in.
£2mln expected mid-May as per RNS 01/05/2024 (i.e. yesterday....)
Simply, we're recovering £2m in funds spent pursuing the Deeside project.
R.e. RDF, the Eqtec system will work for this. We have 2 University plants researching. Most gasification doesn't work, you're quite right. This one does.
Hi all - new to the board, but not new to this company, I've been following it for a while. Can someone please explain what: "formal legal action to recover project development loans at the Deeside project in Wales, for which a settlement agreement has recently been signed, in April 2024" means? I'm familiar with the site, as well as the close by Parc Adfer and Shotton projects - and from what I can tell one of the main issues with the Deeside site was that they finally realised that gasification of MSW / RDF simply doesn't work, so it was being offered for sale at £15m despite not being able to get a grid connection until almost 2030 which meant that whoever bought it would just be sat on it, waiting for NRW to revoke / refuse the permit because nobody in Wales wants an EfW plant anywhere near them (same in Scotland).
So just over two months after diluting shareholders to oblivion with a debt to equity conversion, Palumbo starts ramping the debt all over again!