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Relax, we get a deal ....good news.
We dont get a deal, who cares, as the business is performing well (find out tomorrow)
Another extension, again who cares (although I think this is holding the SP back)
Which ever way you cut the cake value will out in the end....
In the lead up to annual results you normally expect a bit of movement in the stock, maybe there will be a few late buys. I am however, unless it is less leaky that most Companies, expecting an inline result, there will be no takeover . I hope I am proved wrong but I have my doubts.
I’m with Zebbo. Anything under £1.50 would be a disaster for shareholders. Yesterday another share I hold received a takeover approach and I was slightly disappointed that the offer appears to have been accepted. There is a lot of interest currently in UK small caps, because they are undervalued. If we don’t get at least £1.60 I would rather wait and reap the rewards as the Company grows.
Lets face it Zak knows Jak ...:-)
I say, stay as we are if offer is under £1.50. SP will soon move past 1.50 based on progress to date
Yeah didn't say I thought it was good advice. Just that they were most likely advised. I am in agreement that putting yourself up for sale leaves you on the back foot. But we are where we are and 2 potential bidders is more favourable for a higher price and 140p will not get a deal done in my opinion
I'm assuming the strategic review was based on advice they were given by brokers e.c.t who though there would be good appetite for the company. At the time was due to market speculation I think they said. Now 2 potential deals to be made so would likely see a more favourable price I would think. If bids are low equals and shareholders can just walk away. I don't think a deal would be done at 140p with the current SP sitting at 123p
Makes sense as all sales are being swallowed up. Still think there is little in the way of TO premium in the price. Good results (as already flagged) should be more than enough to support £1.50 as a stand alone IMO.
So to answer the question, may not be an acquirer, just a fund that sees value
Having studied the daily trades over the last couple of weeks it seems to me that someone ( potential acquirer ?) has been/is using a VWAP ALGO to acquire as much as they can under the radar hence we are steadily drifting up. Has anyone else noticed this? My evidence would be at the higher vol parts of the day so, on open, 11am, 2pm and close we have a buyer steadily acquiring stock at mid. Hopefully this will continue and increase the closer we get to the results and the latest offer period backstop date.
Some sizable buys, thats why the bid has followed the offer so closely today
Didn't notice that the 50p spread is tighter than normal its usually 1-2p. Must be as the volume is higher lots of trades going on and good liquidity. Hopefully bodes well for a break to the upside as opposed to the downside.
Some bigger single trades pushing through. Not seen the spread so tight before. Question is does this break to the upside or downside..
Not really sure don't particularly understand most of the RNS forms but seems like goldman have disclosed a few trades due to connections with madison in line with take over rules.
Had some good volume yesterday over 2 million shares hopefully the same will continue.
Good to see today's rise, but can anyone explain what Maddison Dearborn have been doing with the various 8.2/3 disclosures over the past few days please?
On there own should drive the SP higher. I see no TO premium within the current SP
Good start back after Easter break nice to see indeed maybe offer incoming soon
The first trading day after Easter sees a positive start with good volumes and increasing share price. There is bound to be a few traders in the market for shares in the next few days. Expect to see some volatility in the lead up to the results. Enjoy the ride.
Positive news flow from Investors Chronicle as a buy rating and well publicised as a fair price at £1.75p with a 45% uptick.
Only a couple of weeks for a decision on takeover and hopefully not an extension…
GLA
Hit 119p a few times today. Seems like volume has stayed up as well. Maybe some buying before Easter to get in and use up ISA limits and any remaining tax benefits.
Some chunky trades being worked through with SP remaining static
MDB were always waiting for the final results,thus April decision.Question is why are so many people selling?Even with two people bidding they obviously think that it won't happen.The whole thing is very unusual.
Think 80-90 on no deal is harsh. The results and continued growth will see the SP bounce back strongly, beyond where we trade today
Share buy back may also be a good use of funds, if no TO
Best risk reward play out there at the mo IMO
I can quite believe the IIs have been sounded out about what sort of offer price they would find acceptable.
It could be some are trimming in case it does not work out; they might have a nice profit and want to crystallize that but keep some in should the deal go ahead. They might want funds to buy back later if it does not work out.
I can readily believe a deal might not be much above 160p; from this level guessing many will support it.
It is certainly in MDPs interests for the SP not to climb towards a likely offer price for obvious reasons.
I can't believe the extensions are due to the 2 parties arguing about the price.
Possibly still doing DD (want to see audited results) and maybe it suits them to do a deal in a new FY.
Personally if no deal don't see these dropping under a pound so feel there is more upside potential than downside risk.
I could not give a Flying feck if MDP don't want to pay up as feel there are excellent prospects irrespective particularly with Equals Money Europe starting to contribute.
GLA whatever your position is here; long, short or trying to keep the SP down ;-)
We will know soon enough what the outcome will be.
Thanks Zak, I can only surmise that the deal will not get done, but the SP will dip on results day and then rise on the back of good results.
No deal means the current sellers will then turn the books and become net buyers...once PIs have been taken to the cleaners.
One thing for sure, PIs will panic out on a no deal. The IIs that are short will scoop up the stock causing maximum pain before winding the SP back up. IIs are defo going short
If we see the books turn before the results and the SP starts rising for no reason, it could be game on.
101 of market mechanics ....:-)
Zak - interesting, thanks for posting.
Zak7795 - thanks for the post but what makes you so sure that 160 is the max. offer price ? Is this figure based on your own calculations ?