Investor Chronicle article...26 Apr 2024 09:45
Lifted from the ADVFN forums board (all credit to users there 'Mr Stephens' and 'carcosa'):
"Summarising the IC article:
The article examines the puzzling situation surrounding Equals Group, a fast-growing payments company that has been exploring a potential sale since October 2023. Despite its excellent technology, strong customer relationships, multiple revenue streams, and a massive total addressable market, Equals' shares have traded at a lowly valuation.
In October, news leaked that Equals had instructed its broker to gauge interest from potential buyers, prompting it to disclose that private equity firms Madison Dearborn and a consortium of Embedded Finance/TowerBrook Capital were considering bids. This kicked off a "put up or shut up" bid period under UK takeover rules.
However, over six months later, neither party has tabled a firm cash offer. The bid deadlines have been repeatedly extended, with the companies citing a need for further due diligence time. Equals itself has acknowledged the protracted process needs to reach a conclusion soon.
The article raises questions about why Equals is so intent on pursuing an outright sale. Its messaging has been muddled - suggesting a sale may maximize shareholder value, but also touting share buybacks to correct the undervaluation. The board has not clearly articulated what a fair takeover premium would be.
There are doubts about whether a bidding war will even materialize after such a drawn-out process. The low absolute and relative valuations of UK equities currently provide little incentive for bidders to pay up.
The article contrasts Equals' low valuation multiples to that of peer Alpha Group, despite their similar growth profiles. It argues that unless a formal bid tops 200p per share, representing a 50%+ premium, shareholders should demand answers from the board on why they are depriving investors of benefiting from Equals' strong growth prospects independently.
With the AGM coming in May, the article posits the board must soon bring clarity - either a compelling takeover offer or an acknowledgment they are remaining independent and outlining a plan to capitalize on the company's growth momentum and boost the undervalued share price themselves.
In summary, the piece critically analyses the opaque takeover process at Equals, questioning the board's intentions and arguing they must provide a clear path forward that maximizes value for shareholders, whether through a sale with a significant premium or articulating a plan to unlock value on a standalone basis.
It also suggests the bid price has to be 200+p and its more than likely a takeover will actually occur."