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"The Reduction of Capital creates distributable reserves of the Company, which would ENABLE the Company to MAKE distributions to its SHAREHOLDERS in the future, subject to the Company's financial performance"
What has happened to the share price most recently is just ridiculous
Gas prices are set to stay high for most of 2021, at least
Production is to stay relatively stable throughout the year, with only minor decline by year end (unlike JKX)
FCF of $25-30 mn for the year is pretty much guaranteed
Cash by year end - $85-90mn (before dividends, if any)
Most peers have increased substantially in terms of share price
Agree! I think people are maybe concerned about the region i.e. UKraine but the Crimea issue which was in 2014, things are settled now.
This has nothing to do with Ukraine. Crimea has not been an issue for many years now
People just try to find any explanation but it is irrelevant
Ukraine is much better than most African or Middle East jurisdictions. Way better
I am from Ukraine. 100% agree with Krok.
The real issue with Ukraine as a country is that it is on the brisk of default
It has not defaulted yet mostly because of new IMF loans. But larger and larger portions of new loans are needed simply to service the existing debt
It can not continue this way forever but so far so good
The problem is not at all in Ukraine, but in Mr. Novinsky.
He can find a thousand gray schemes to withdraw money from profits and not pay dividends. They are used to doing this in Ukraine and will do so always and everywhere. These are the oligarchs who were born after the collapse of the USSR, then assets and crime were together. They all love gray tax optimization schemes)))
There will be no dividends. I think there is inside information and that is why the share price is so low.
I really want to be wrong))
Why cancel the share premium account then? Remember he is the 85% shareholder so most dividend payment will go to him anyway. I am surprised no else has bought some of Novinskys shares
Bulldog, good to see someone who really understands how things work in this part of the world
Though, I agree with you in general, I tend to disagree with you re ENW
Novinsky appears to be a better person than an average Ukrainian oligarkh)) He is a truly religious person, look at his personal telegram channel - it is all about God and religion
Regarding schemes, there are three options where Smart Energy (SE) can steal money from ENW:
1) Transfer pricing. SE purchases 100% of ENW’s gas
2) Inflate drilling costs by using affiliated contractors
3) Sell assets to ENW above their fair value
Out of three, I think number 3 is somewhat relevant - that what’s happened when SE sold PEP to ENW a few years ago
This risk is still on the agenda as SE may transfer its asset UGV to ENW and get all cash out of ENW. Or even make ENW borrow more cash. That’s real
On #1 and #2, I dont think they steal much, if at all. Can easily be checked
CAD and to a lesser extent JKX are good (or rather awful) examples of what you said. ENW appears to be a slightly better (by Ukrainian standards)
Qalbabbass, why agree for 85% when he can get all of it?)) why pay taxes from his dividends when there may be other ways not to))
This is a joke. But in Russian we have a proverb saying that every joke has a piece of truth in it;)
70 mn cash pile + 3p divi
Still my hope
I think the religious ones can be more corrupt in some cases! Anyhow I do believe the local purchase of UGV could be done but May be regarded as insider trading. However if they did that he would be shafting us but he cares less about us. I think Pope asset who hold around 7% are very long term holder and I would be surprised if they were shafted as well. Dividend seems likely and this will entice new investors to the company. They have already stated they do not want to make company private and want to increase shareholding. They were going to do a investor presentation in January but that was cancelled for some reason.
Novinsky acquired the stake from Pinchuk increasing his shareholding from 55% to 83% without even caring to disclose the purchase price, let alone making an offer
Did Pope say anything? They didnt, at least in the public domain
The have a zero bargaining power like the rest of us
So Krok you are basically saying we are in God's hands on this one?
Hopefully God will whisper something to Novinsky to give to the poor i.e. us, lol!
From the Covid Lows of 15p we have hardly gained any traction in share price, most companies have at least doubled from the bottom.
Dear colleagues, when will AGM take place? I have not found any information on this on the ENW site. I also wrote emails to the offices in Kiev and London, but did not receive an answer (question about AGM and Divi)
I have sent a few messages to Enwell about the investor presentation but no response. AGM is normally in May so any dividend will need to be approved then, but they need to give a months notice so we might here something in April about a dividend.
Early April - annual report
Late May - AGM notice
Late June - AGM
Krok JKX produces twice gas then of ENW , so why so negative on JKX
The point is you jumped onto JKX ans spouted then left , ENW been struggling to keep its reserves up at the same decline as JKX.
If you are not fit to get criticism then do not post , as a general find your post very factual but the language different.
JKX had a amassing year in 2019 and was expected a drop in pressure same as ENW , the point which is not put forward JKX still made $20 million plus in pre tax profit subject to end year accounts
Thordon, not sure why you keep asking questions re JKX on ENW board but here are the answers that will not make you happy:
1) JKX production in Russia hardly breaks even, free cashflow is slightly above zero. For the record, they invested over $300 mn in this asset in the past. Sunk cost, I know, and most of it has been written-off in previous years but worth mentioning nonetheless
2) I would advise JKX to sell the Russia asset for $20-25 mn, the recent Volga Gas deal is a good comparison. This asset gives very little value to JKX currently
3) JKX production in Ukraine dropped by 30% in the last 1,5 years. In 1Q21 it will most likely touch 4 kboepd, in 2Q it will sink below 4 kboepd. Awful result, plain awful
4) JKX has to spend a lot more than ENW simply to maintain production, as its assets are highly depleted. When it decreases capex, production decline accelerates. This is the case in 2020 - 8% production decline in 4Q20 alone
5) Look at cashflow, not profits. Free cashflow in 2019 was a miserable $6.5 mn. Again, because they had to spend a lot on capex
6) JKX is unable to earn more than $10-12 mn of FCF per year. Whatever they earn they need to spend on capex. If they underspend on capex, their production in Ukraine will suffer even more
They did a miracle in Ukraine in mid-2019 but it turned out to be a short lived one
They will likely continue to earn $10 mn from their Ukrainian operations, maybe $15 mn this year but only due to prices. Nothing to do with company specific factors
Will sink below 20p again in summer if my production forecast is correct
Also, do not rule out potential implications of US sanctions against Kolomoiskiy - they may do quite some harm
Good luck anyway
Whilst we are on the topic of other companies, Cadogan #cad another Ukrainian gas play doing very well today! Hopefully our time will come! If Cadogan which was completely trash can wake up so can we!
Cash pile 1Q - 70 mn
FCF 2021 - 25-30 mn
Cash pile 4Q - 85-90 mn
At current share price, EV will be close to zero by year end
Thanks Krok that's was a good summary and well appreciated , was a investor in ENW but sold out at 25p 3 months ago bought Cadogan shares at 2.7 p
Sold out of ENW because was getting worried about the main shareholder , which after from several media reports is a decent person on a scale compared to others in Ukraine business leaders.
Will buy back soon