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After the latest operating update, which was clearly a disappointment, the following developments can help ENW to re-rate
1) Results of the latest SV-25 well. Anything above 500-600 boepd should add a few pennies to the share price. Timing - early March
2) Reserves update. Following the completion of the Arkona legal case, I reckon ENW shall prepare a new assessment. Arkona’s 38 mmboe of C1+C2 reserves would likely convert to 20-25 mmboe of 2P reserves. This is a 40-50% increase to the previous assessment. Timing - tbd, depending on when they started/start
3) 1Q cash pile. I reckon ENW will have earned $10+ mn in 1Q. As a result, the cash balance should exceed $70 mn. They will spend it later on on their next well but who cares in the short-term, most people don’t get it anyway
4) VAS-10 well workover. Should minimize production decline at VAS field. Better still, increase it back to 2019 levels. Timing - May
5) VAS license resolution. Unlikely, given no developments for almost two years. Just for completeness sake
6) Last but definitely not least, divi announcement. 2-3p would be great. Depends on how tax efficient it is for Novinsky and whether he is willing to share the cash pile with minority shareholders. Can easily afford it from financial perspective. Timing - hopefully, April
All-in-all, we can expect to hear quite a lot of news in the next couple of months. Fingers crossed, we make a decent profit out of it. Including happy holders and unhappy dreamers))
3p per share is a mere $13 mn in total, of which $10.8 mn goes to Novinsky. Peanut for ENW
Nice summary Krok - Thank you very much. Agree
Enwell should have enough FCF on annual basis to sustain a div of 3p, and this will act as a base to the share price.
Kroc congratulations
After your today’s positive comments the price has risen significantly.
I would be happy with a 3p dividend, but with gas prices the way they are, a special dividend would also be appealing.
Unbelievable..... Take a look at Kroks posts on ENW. This boy has no shame.
I don’t remember if Regal had ever paid dividends in the past, it probably hadn’t
But JKX definitely had. And its share price at a time was a multiple of the current levels
Announcing any meaningful dividend will by itself be sufficient for the stock to re-rate
Russian VGAS doubled on divi announcement in 2018. We can expect a similar performance
gotabesirius, I only write what is relevant under the circumstances at any given point of time. And accounting for the prevailing share price
There were times when I said buy as much Regal as you can get. And there were times when I said sell by all means
Being realistic is vital to make profit on stocks like ENW
I do not hold it for years, I am not a happy holder but I made a lot of money on RPT in the past. Planning to repeat it in 2021, at least partially
You can scroll down for my posts dated 2018-2019, when everybody on this board put a lot of hatred into my face. Back then, I was right in pretty much everything. And most of happy holders lost a lot of money
Listen to me and I will make you rich, boy, lol)))
Enw’s latest update was a disappointment and I clearly said so
But then, a few days later, JKX issued its own update, which turned out to be a disaster. People on twitter continue posting various drivel nonetheless
But I changed my mind. Based solely on facts. In early January I thought JKX will perform better than ENW. Now I definitely prefer ENW
For the record, I still own both
So what happened to the $10m drilling costs for ENW? Or have you forgot about this....
For the record, there's no dividend coming here. Value is in the assets and ability to grow cash which gives the company untold opportunity
Read my first post in this topic. I mentioned it - it is still a big issue but not relevant in the next 2-3 months. And most people dont get it anyway
Who is Sid, who reposted this topic on twitter? He usually posts a lot of drivel on ENW and JKX but doesnt have a clue whatsoever. Mate, you should try much better
Sid, JKX is in a big ****, mind you.
gotabesirius, there is no material growth in production in the next 2-3 years. Growth in cashflow will depend on gas prices. Currently, we are very lucky but that can obviously change pretty quickly
In the absence of production growth, Dividend is a game changer
Whether there is a divi or not - we will soon find out. But who would waste time eliminating the share premium “just in case”
Surely there will be production growth in the future with new wells expected with the Arkona purchase?
On the existing fields, what the have drilled in the last couple of years just replenished the depletion, the production is flat as a result. It will likely continue this way in the observable future
Re Arkona, it will take time, effort and money to put on production. I do not think there will be any meaningful production from Arkona in the next two years. Reserves - definitely, production - unlikely
And risks are substantial. Every well is $10-12 mn You miss the target and a significant part of your annual cash flow evaporates immediately
Even if you are successful, it remains to be seen whether a well pays pack. Too deep, too expensive, takes almost a year to complete
I think this explains why ENW is so conservative with new drilling
But that’s ok if they start paying dividends
If they don’t pay a divi now, when they have a $70mn cash pile, gas prices likely to stay reasonably high in 2021 and drilling ambitions being pretty moderate, then we can forget about it
Those interested/invested in JKX, please see my latest post in JKX thread
Sid, please repost it on twitter, will you?
Krok, It is always good to see a ardent critic such as yourself switch sides and have a positive outlook. So hopefully you have made the right decision and we see the price move on upwards now. Price is looking very stable at these levels fingers crossed, so we hopefully re-rate. The well results are due any day and I am just wondering if the results have been leaked which is why were getting some steady buys come through.
Krok you bounce from one oil stock to another , as for JKX they are making 3 times the profit then that of ENW
Reminder written by you on ENW
Production is down by 332 boepd
Their latest well gave them 565 boepd
Without this well, the decline would have been 897 boepd. That’s almost 20% decline from natural depletion! Extremely high for gas wells!
People on twitter saying production will undoubtedly go higher are idiots
ENW needs two wells per year just to maintain production. That’s $20-25 mn in capex - more than the company earns
That’s exactly what I said - ENW’s update was a disappointment, JKX’s - a disaster
ENW production dropped by 7% in a year, JKX’s - by 8% in 4Q
If JKX’s production drops another 8% in 1Q21, they would need gas prices to be 55% higher than in 2Q19 simply to have the same revenue
Re three times larger profit, you should definitely check your math
Just ignore this clown. He's just proven he hasn't a clue what he's talking about and one glance over his posting history will confirm this.
Krok you been found out , now please do not comment as you are not a true to your word.
hi
my account has been credited with some money from enwell energy but no reason has been given.does anybody know the reason please let me know. my email is mirmoha**********
man thanks
regards
reza
Yes. An Interim Dividend was announced at the end of May. This was paid out today, 15 june. I am still confused as to why the price is going up though, failing any positive news about the appointment of UK auditors, legal triumphs over beneficial ownership or the publishing of Annual Reports. It looks like the suspension of trading will probably go ahead on 3 July...
Can anybody shed any light as to why the price is holding up in the current climate?