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Am I right in saying that shareholders get 23% of a Kaz share so at the moment that's around 60p + 175 = 234. Now are share holders getting paid in cash or Kaz shares for the 23%. If yes then Kaz could easily get back to it's £4-6 levels pre march putting the value of the deal for ENRC holders to £2.75 to £3. Seams like the very sensible thing to do is hold or dare I say at this SP level could be a good little short term win. Maybe a little silver lining after all for those with a little patience.
OK, just got the news that the KAZ vote is tentatively scheduled for August 2. However it seems the whole takeover process will take another three months or so from then, probably even longer. In that time, if KAZ shares go up, so will the deal. I honestly don't think KAZ will drop further than where it is now...
All I know is that they should vote within two months from the bid being finalised, then it takes three weeks or so for the offer to be executed. I wrote in an earlier post that I expect everything to be wrapped up (if it goes through) by September at the latest. If you're a KAZ shareholder you will get an alert via your trading platform, but I suppose you'll find out on the web anyway.
Can somebody tell me if a date has been set for KAZ share holders to vote? Is there a program of dates available?
Finally this seems to be headed to were it should be from here on in (bar violent movements in Kaz)
You've missed the point. The analogy I was trying to make was that when some of us see a need for change whether that's for the Takeover Panel's rules to be rewritten/shortened made more intelligible for readers, for breaches of the Disclosure and Transparency Regulations to be investigated and punished etc. etc. then we have a right to contact our MPs or do whatever we please within the law to get matters addressed without some posters on here commenting that we are wasting our time. The Suffragettes, of course, had a more pressing case and had to break the law in order to force a change in the law. As for principles, we all have our own moral code to live by. I personally wouldn't invest in tobacco companies but I would invest in companies which make certain alcohols. Cameron's visit to Kazakhstan included bringing up human rights issues which has actually opened up my eyes to the government's track record. As Ant said, most of us will recover in a matter of weeks from any hit we take with enrc or kaz holdings but what about any folk from that country who have invested - will they recover from their government and a few oligarchs relieving them of their life savings for their own benefit for a song and I understand there are fears about huge job losses. Good luck with your kaz shares but I'm holding mine only until I see what happens here. No doubt you'll be able to have long chats with Seifert and the like about corruption and all the rest on the kaz bb because I gather a few posters think it might extend beyond enrc. Seifert's viewpoint on the subject might well alter depending of whether or not he is shorting or invested at the time ATB
Your now filterd/fired. You must have been workking on the BBB syndrome. Bull**** Baffells Brains. Some of us see through your posts, something meaninful even honest would be good but I wont see it , jog on
Look I have done okay with enrc but I am holding kaz shares and really don't think there is anything to stop that company being taken out with a similar low ball offer. There is nobody taking anything here personally. We are looking at general principles here. There seems to be a lot of common ground right at the moment between holders of this share and the likes of Vlad Lenin who I assume is shorting. You are the one who is out on a limb here and wanting to curb free speech on a matter which most folk want to air. Now have a good evening all, I'm away to watch the tennis.
Now look at who's getting personal!
I'm not looking to bully anyone, seems a lot of people on here wrongly take it personally. I imagine if we had all made lots of money the attitudes would be different, but we are not fortunate enough to be in that position. A lot of people have egg on their face playing in this name, some of the posters more disgruntled than others which is to be expected. When i started buying ENRC i was well aware the company could be delisted leaving me with a stub worth the best part of F-All, so as you can appreciate whilst our current predicament is not ideal, for me at least it is a better outcome than i was prepared for in a worst case scenario. Perhaps this is why my attitude may seem a bit blase
I never asked you for any price predictions here resulting from any offer from this consortium. You volunteered them. I usually take as much notice of price predictions on these bbs as I do of the ad for the kaz horsemilk. You sure that's not you starring in this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_92NOFg2Aco
scandal http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/06/27/shares/news-and-analysis/questions-for-authorities-in-enrc-scandal-kXcZQ8iDPuqt14xs4wTiQL/article.html Just a reminder of this article. alias these are questions the investment community in general are asking i.e. you don't need to be invested in enrc to have an interest in such matters or, as you put it, feel bitter about such matters??? Knowing when you began contributing to this bb, I am astounded that you find yourself in a loss position here given that you sold some at £3.00 on or before 17 May when you were only two minutes behind the boys on FT Alphaville in reporting that they thought the bid would come in at £3.40 only for them to apologise later in the day when it was announced that a tentative bid had been made which was thought to "materially undervalue the company" I am sure investors here will take comfort in learning that even the likes of you dropped a couple of eggs here but will be relieved that your basket is not ruined and that you have a balanced investment strategy but only post on 2 bbs on the lse. Well done you but we are not all durbys who you can bully off these bbs.
Let me get a couple of things straight for you because you're getting a bit too cocky for my liking. I am not over exposed by any means on this and I am not losing a lot in absolute terms, but even losing some money on this the way things have panned out it's too much when it is my savings. I am not here to tell you the story of my life or my bank balance, but one thing is to take a hit when investments go the wrong way and another is to come out with dilly-dally statements that "it's only money" like yours. Secondly, I have been dealing on the stock exchange here and elsewhere long and frequently enough to know what I am doing and I certainly don't need you to patronise me about 'steep learning curves'. I suggest you get a bit more humble when you make assumptions on other members of this forum since in my case you know pretty much f-all. Is that clear? Now if you want to discuss share movements and the like that's fine, otherwise if you want to make this personal and pick at other members I can report you in no time.
Of course I have plenty more of it in my pocket, as part of a balanced investment strategy I only dropped a couple of eggs here but my basket is not ruined. I'm sorry if you got yourself overexposed to this trade, but with regards to having respect, you put yourself in that position! In doing so you must have known what you were risking, if not I appreciate this could be a very steep learning curve for you.
Queen, I agree with you about fighting and taking the issue further up the ladder, you are right that's how things get done when it comes to civil rights. Alias, "Good news is its only money": well I think you can say that when you have plenty more of it in your pocket - that's not my case so you can take that comment back and have a bit more respect.
Ant, I have dealt with this issue in a previous post. Of course the market will never price up to the exact bid amount, would you buy shares at 234p when there's a bid for 234p? Add the transaction charges and stamp duty and you'd be at a loss, however minor. The fact that there are no buyers near 230p makes for a lower price. Conversely, the market never reflects the true present value of a company for this very reason, since there would no point in buying a share if you were to sell it at the same price - the only scope for profit being the future value - which in this case is 99% fixed. Secondly, the market is always pessimistic so they allow for something to go wrong! Finally, because part of the bid is in a third-party share, there is an element of added risk and that is priced in too, plus of course the shorters, they're always there like vultures.
Good for you guys, at least you don't sound bitter hey! I think i recall you asking me on price targets, but hey i'm just another punter like you and Ant so my expectations were wrong, anyone making an investment thinking I have an edge was wrong and they should be punished for such naive beliefs. All along I also commented that this was super high risk stuff, so that was your disclaimer! I certainly don't feel a duty to let people know when I have sold, I am not your broker, even selling some at 300 i still believed the offer would be higher. Good news is its only money, if you worry too much then it might take effect on your health and then you have a problem. I wish you all great success with moaning to your MPs, but personally I will choose to dedicate my time and effort in other areas i perceive as more productive!
I read a post on another bb of another mining company this week. A poster was down £100,000 and you could say that that poster has only his or her self to blame for that but the bb in question suffers like many others from posters who boast about their buys and make very optimistic price predictions. Nothing wrong in doing that but I would contend that such posters then have a duty to post when they are selling and they should do so at the time of the sale and on the appropriate bb otherwise they simply become a laughing stock among the majority of other members of the posting community and they deserve the derision that comes their way from other posters. With regard to yourself, you were on this bb saying that an offer would come in for £3.70 or more yet it emerged later( i.e. after the indicative offer details became known) that you had sold tranches of shares well below that price when you were making those £3.70 predictions presumably with the intention of influencing others to buy at prices up to that level. Some would call you a pumper dumper. You didn't curb yourself thereafter and were telling us that you would be a very happy trader if the offer was £3.20. Do you not accept that having got your predictions terribly wrong once, you had a bit of a cheek to be on here again quoting inflated prices and raising the expectations on the inexperienced investor. FWIW, I have been trading enrc this year and it has been a lot kinder to me than kaz which I "invested" in this year. I have never made price predictions of any kind nor issued any buy or sell recommendations to other posters - I wouldn't dream of doing that - and I merely post and comment on news issues and offer a bit of banter and support to fellow shareholders. So the Investor's Chronicle and numerous other publications, Ant 1986 and I are all viewing the UK regulatory bodies askance but you think people are wasting their time taking these matters up with MPs and whoever. You might be right but some of us are willing to give it a go regardless of how futile you think the gesture might be. Cripes women would never have got the vote if the Suffragettes hadn't chained themselves to railings and thrown themselves under the King's horse at the Derby etc. etc. Don't assume that everybody is as apathetic as yourself. Oh and incidentally, it's not just issues surrounding Asian companies which concern me. I have proof of institutional investors breaching the Disclosure and Transparency Regulations in respect of companies based right here in the UK.
Regards bid not going ahead do the maths.... £1.75 in cash + 0.23 KAZ shares (currently at 263) implies a price of £235.49, yet ENRC trades at a 10/15% discount to this level If the market was confident then it wouldn't leave the door open for that much arb profit to be left on the table
Correction: the lack of a such a rule allowed all sorts of conjectures on the final bid value, with many using KAZ's 375p write-down value as a rough guide, or the 30-day or yearly average - knowing the minimum was 290p would have made me stay out.
Well, it seems to me that the bottom line is that a takeover at near gun point is what has annoyed just about everyone holding ENRC shares. We have a takeover code, but it overlooks the single most important aspect: safeguarding a minimum price. It is customary to bid at least a 27% price premium on the share value the day before the announcement, and cash only - with anything else, third-party shares, luxury trips or crates of wine, to go on top of the cash just to dress it up. It would be an easy rule to establish and it would make it easy for everyone, long term or prospective holders, to know where the price would be AT LEAST should the bid be successful. In our case, this would give the certainty of at least 290p, which isn't huge but certainly better than 175p, AND we are subject to fluctuations in KAZ value. Instead, bidders have a free hand and in some cases, such as this one, can force it through. This should not happen, not here in the UK. That's where the authorities are currently leaving a vacuum, and as Ant rightly says, if not for this instance at least they should make it better for future ones. I had just mostly come out of ENRC the day before the bid announcement (typical), with such a rule in existence I wouldn't have gone back in afterwards - simples! Other long-term holders would have been able to evaluate their position and make an educated decision on their holdings, instead of hanging on for weeks and then get a kick up their... Queen, what makes you think the current price reflects a market that does not believe the offer will not go through? What could stop it, let's be honest? And don't you think ENRC would be quoting near 150/170p if it wasn't for the bid?
Learning to play the harp isn't as productive as informing your MP of something you think needs addressing. This is a global company listed on the FTSE 100, London, UK not a domestic company in a foreign market. If it gets accepted or not, is down to another company, nothing to do with the number of protesters. That company is so tightly linked that it has to place a "special waiver" in place to stop the normal RULES applying in order to agree a deal without the backing of ENRC's independent committee, put in place to protect mugs like me. Another RULE they have circumnavigated. Bored of talking about the money aspect. Feel free to ignore this post and the situation, ignorance tends to pacify most.
Enjoyed this post, saying i have self-importance and then writing this dribble. The irony is strong with you!
I'm still long ENRC, and i'm now sitting on a reasonable loss. My suggestion was that moaning to an MP is about as productive as learning to play the harp when it comes to investing. The facts are Central Asian shares are super risky, we all knew that, we all made our bets and by large we are all losing. The fact the consortium have made on offer is irrelevant, it needs to be accepted. if it gets accepted then those of you seeking to complain to your MP are clearly in the minority. Part of investing is losing, but you can mitigate the financial loss in part by learning and taking the experience forward with you. Get over yourselves!
Thanks for your support, I too am glad there are members such as yourself that post honestly and with insight/ objective opinion. This issue will hopefully not blow over, and as I think it has hit a few people higher up the food chain, it might not.