Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi!
Pelle,
Yes, its a easier way to count like you do but as you see in my count, I´ll do it low (op 70, 30% of fcf and a yield of 8%.
You can se that I have an airbag on my counting but I´m open to have wrong (cause that give us more money).
Regards/Kamrat
.....and the joy of it is that Opex stays the same as the number of barrels stays the same. It really earns the title "FCF".
Kamrat - in my experience all years are "odd" in the oil world. Enjoying the posts.
Hello Kamrat,
In my view valuation of a field doesn’t change whatever you decide to do with the money.
Drilling other projects, reduce debt or dividend.
I would rather use the valuation 325m that was based on 50 oil.
Opex capex 20 so margin for FCF 30 usd.
Now oil price 85 so margin and FCF double and market valuation would double also.
But these valuations based on long term prices also.
So probably they paid a bit premium at 50 and today maybe you would not get the full 85 usd valuation.
Hi!
Tigar,
As I count in my way I take all finance for everything and use half/full year to see that my direction is right.
This is a odd year with many things to think about but I think It will be easier the next year.
In a line-up is it quite easy (if you use BE, brake even).
Its: Production/d * year days * (oilprice -BE) to reach fcf.
By the way, the company says that 211/12b Is not the Tiger and I have asked them so much questions about it so I am in shame.
And Enquests number about it is far from 90m.
Regards /Kamrat
Hi!
Pelle,
My valuation of Golden Eagle (-22) is not complicated and I shall try to explain it and use space for the calculations.
Days 365
boepd 10 000
OP 70
capex / Opex 20
FCF = (70-20)*10 000 *365 = 182 500 000
FCF 182 500 000
Shares 1 885 924 339
Price,Sek 8.70
Divi. % 8.00%
Divi. from fcf 30.00%
Why do I use 30% as part from fcf and other talking about 60 -70 %?
Its because I think that they must have space for Orion project (Shetland) and if 30% go to that project is 40% left for payoffs and other project (as i talking about -22 you cant use 200 borrowing cause it will be (gone) lower).
Total dividend (30% of fcf) 54 750 000 (182 500 000 * 0.30)
Why do I use 8% for counting on how much the market cap will rise while other talk about 5-7%?
In my portfolio I have one company with a Yield of 14% ( that means that the course is pressed and the yield is high against the course.
I dont think it will be that pressure on E but I dont either think it will be as it could have being before corona and climatetalking.
GE's market value 684 375 000 (54 750 000 / 0.08)
To reach the stockprice I take the market value divided with shares in company
Stock price 0.36 (684 375 000 dollars / 1 885 924 339)
Share price SEK 3.16 (0, 36 * 8.7)
To reach divi/share I take total dividend divided with shares in company
Divi. / Share 0.029 (54 750 000 dollars / 1 885 924 339)
Utd./share Sek 0.25 (54 750 000 * 8.7 / 1 885 924 339)
Regards / Kamrat
Jongler, great if you follow I get my tail (svans) back . Lol.
You are always right Pelle (Svanslös?), I will follow your advise (typ råd...) ??
Tigar, on those Q1 numbers and putting 85 usd FCF would double to 70m/quarter.
And that’s during capex period.
Tarmak
I think you can update much of your calculations on GE from the accounts in Prospectus 2 for Jan1st -31st March lots of details in it like realised oil price $50.8, $15.1m profit , production 11,717bpd Attributable net cash flow of $34.857m with tax to pay of $9.6m My assumption is $34.857 - $9.6m Tax is the figure to be credited from Enquests payment.
But would need a poster like L3 who would know the accountant speak to intemperate correctly.
Kamrat, complicated calculations…
But basically your right, GE valuation today would be double around 600m.
Had to borrow 200m so net 400m.
So without GE SP would be like 8p . Lol
The mass of people won’t understand Enquest value until paying dividend!
Hi!
Valuation of Golden Eagle for -22
Long-term Opex / Capex is estimated at $ 20 / barrel but is currently lower.
I still count on $ 20 and 10kboepd for -22,
Days 365
boepd 10 000
OP 70
capex / Opex 20
182 500 000
FCF 182 500 000
Shares 1 885 924 339
Price, ISK 8.70
Divi. % 8.00%
Divi. from fcf 30.00%
Total dividend 54,750,000 182,500,000 * 0.3
GE's market value 684 375 000 54 750 000 / 0.08
Stock price 0.36 684 375 000 dollars / 1 885 924 339
Share price SEK 3.16 0, 36 * 8.7
Divi. / Share 0.029 54 750 000 dollars / 1885924339
Utd./share Sek 0.25 54 750 000 * 8.7 / 1885 924 339
The calculation is also on calculations (at the bottom) in my files.
The energy drink, with the nice name, which adorns comp-21 is not recommended by me,
Tired quickly of the taste but it was a fun thing.
In summary, I only value GE at a higher price than the entire Enquest and still with reasonable figures.
Regards / Kamrat