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Hi L3,
Agreed,it wasn't clear. That page totalled OGA boepd Jan-Dec 17 and 18 and used that to look at % increase/decline.
I've looked at increase/decline over differing time periods and in the end just looking at using preceding 4 months data to represent change and then applied a reduction factor (shrinkage) that gets OGA down toward company reported figures. I've now graphed that and it works very well I think. Tight to OGA parallel but veering away when gas heavy Magnus is firing. Will be iInteresting to see how the predictions work. Again no planned improvements factored in and a bad Magnus month influencing data .. so I have a get out of jail free card in any scenario.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/b78nmdzgue4ezt3/Enq%20Prod%20data%20with%20estimates.pdf?dl=0
Second half underway . . the poison is football.
Cpy/Paste nth time lucky?
GLAXXX
Recomend copy your posts, might need give it a few tries before it go through
L3, the 30k is the way I keept track on the other fields and its been rather stable.
Expect maybe 23k during summer months due maintenance
And 30k+ from Sept with new pipelines without wax and Malaysia completed.
L3, Tired now. I just wrote you long post and it didnt go through:-(
Selected few,
Therapist: Many thanks for your 15/09 spreadsheet.
I cannot understand the last page, p. 10. You refer to Prod FY17 and Prod FY18.
What are these? I am sorry but I do not understand if the figures are boepd or something else.
Londoner7 and ProOpt: I read with interest your exchanges on the Western Flank.
In particular that " demand for hot water from FSPO will not diminish with fall off in oil production
from the current well stock so either hot water capacity is added to the FSPO to support the Western
Flank development or an alternative solution is developed. Hence consideration is being given to the
'downhole electrical heating and ESP' solution.
The questions I have for you are: Could ENQ send the Enquest Producer FPSO to the WF? We know that
Alma/Galia project failed, so can the FPSO be sent to Kraken? By the way does any of you know why Alma/Galia
did not perform?
It has produced only 6.3MMboe so far. It was suppposed to produce a lot more given that gross 2P reserves were
set at 34MMboe. Does any of you know what went wrong? I ask because the new ESPs evidently did not
improve production.
Have you seen the plan for Eagle? It is available at:
https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/operations/Downloads/EHE8014_Eagle_Development_ES_Complete_Rev01.pdf
They intend to start production in 09/21 (Capex will be in 2021), and stop after 2 years,
producing a total of 4.3MMbo in the high [P05] case for oil rate.
I do hope that Capex on Eagle will be no more than $60M!
Pelle: You asked about the feasibility of hedging during Monday and Tuesday. Yes, it was possible. 5Billion bbl
changed hands on Monday in the derivatives market. E121 casted doubt on direct hedging. If he wants he can explain
more why he thinks that would be hard. There were surely parties out there trying to cover their short positions
and I am sure ENQ knows who to ring/email. We shall see if they hedged anything in the next OUpdate. Shale
producers did take the chance to hedge, as confirmed by the media.
Yeseterday you wrote that you expect production at 30Kboepd, if you exclude Kraken and Magnus. How do you get
to that number?
SP: I am not one for running commentaries on the SP, but I am puzzled as to why it does not budge.
We know one thing, which is that AB bought on 23 November 18 at 23.3p. After that his purchases were
all below 20.4p. It seems Mr. Market wants to see more evidence that execution is as planned.
PO: $4/5 higher than last Friday! Good news that rigs are down and that EIA weekly production is stuck at
12.4Mbopd. Better yet that part of the positive adjustment every week seems to be driven by crude-by-rail
from Canada. So the import data from Canada is not accurate on a weeky basis. At least we know that
it is not immediately unaccounted-for US production that is explaining the adjustment. As E121, insistently
says keep an eye on shale to see where the POO is headed.
GLA