We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I fear Middle East "deals" tend to be more than snags.....
After the positive drilling results it looks like the mediation has hit a snag, let's hope it is a small temporary hiccup.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/6/israel-to-reject-lebanons-proposed-changes-to-gas-deal-official
In the current climate even Israel doesn't want to be accused of territorial annexation. This is a resource of mutual benefit. Lebanon need some good news and a cheap source of energy. Fingers crossed.
In the UK there appears to be a movement away from tying the price of electricity to the price of gas. The present system has also worked (imo) against investing in gas producers due to the volatility of gas prices. You cannot blame Putin for everything and there were concerns before the invasion.
If you go on to (say) Harbour people religiously follow the gas price whooping when it goes up and regretting hedges. That is not the case with Energean. Their business model is based much more on longer contracts with their customers and volatility is reduced. People go on about "energy security" but our production is in a part of the world where the phrase is taken very seriously. This stock will never be in a widows and orphan's portfolio but it will change the economics and politics of the region. It will also be unlikely to become a punters favourite with a busy message board.
Very good point, i dont know.
For me most worrying is why did the current ceo sell big chunk of his holding (i believe about a 1/4 or £25000000 )at around £11 not so long ago !!!
I may be reading more into this than is really there - just guys moaning and they don't specifically mention Energean, but an interesting thread appeared on my LinkedIn feed suggesting not is well on board an FPSO in disputed waters off Israel under threat of Hezbollah attack. Allegedly guys aren't getting paid and the work is a shambles. I assume ours is the only one out there right now? Just a heads up.
September for deal...not August as previously stated.
I am confident we will have a deal this month. All the signs are positive including the silence over the past 5 or 6 days.
The Lebanese are renowned throuhout the Levant and surrounding areas for their business acumen. The geopolitics of the area are Byzantine and I would (optimistically) opine that the Hezbollah aggression is to establish bargaining position. Few would support Lebanon not having territorial sovereignty but they are weak compared to the powers surrounding them. I wish them well and they are adept at playing a weak hand. It is in everyone's interest to make the Eastern Med a success as an energy hub.
Even if you reduce Hezbollah leaders to war lords they still require finance. Lebanon is a beautiful country with war damage still visible and round the corner a Ferrari garage. Power outages are regular and daily. Extremists have aims but civilians just want the same as us. I am very hopeful that the way out of the current mess will be improved with cheap and reliable forms of energy that are in everyone's interest. That's why I'm invested. Roughly speaking Lebanon is a 3 way split between Shia, Sunni and Christian. It cannot exist as a state without compromise.
I think you are 'broadly' correct. Their split the last time I looked was 70/30 in favour of gas over oil. The bulk of the gas from karish in Israel waters ( they also operate in Italy and a few other countries) is signed up to long term contracts but they do have export potential via a pipeline to Egypt and LNG facility. The long term Israel contracts are what the dividend payments are based upon which will start this year.
The interesting point in the news article is the the proposal from Hochstein ( the American mediator ) is that the deal looks to include ENOG in drilling the new fields in Lebannon which is new news and I suspect may even tie back to existing infrastructure so would be great news.
My recent research on the co shows that all the gas soon to be produced will be destined for the domestic Israeli market and not for export. I also feel that the sp is quite high at the moment if one considers that the co could not sell its gas at other markets in the med area and so take advantage of the sky high gas prices.
Also the co has reached agreements with local Israeli utilities to seel the gas at lower than market prices , of course on long term contracts which will affect its profitability.
Fantastic news for ENOG if this is true..
https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/291378-report-maritime-dispute-on-brink-of-solution
This is. Major issues. Hence the director sells. Lebanon have nothing to lose, it’s virtually bankrupt and will fight Israel as much as it can. Why did military accompany the drilling rig ? They know attacks are coming. Watching carefully here. Can see huge drift lower as funds that are up handsomely will look to exit as it could turn ugly on the seas. £7 my buy in price.
I totally agree and if the co finds enough gas to supply most of the med countries then the prospects are even brighter.
It would help to see who bought the 5000000 shares of the ceo as if it has been bought but one of the existing israeli ii, i would consider it a big +.
Across the OG market in my opinion the tide is about to turn for the next up swing. Quartet results across the board starting shortly will be the catalyst . Energean is a strong buy at this price .
Tricky news really that the Greek ceo has sold a quarter of his holding or 2.8% of the co's shares at 11.06 which is quite a low price.It seems the shares went to existing ii's but why at such a low price when first gas should be flowing weeks from now which should push the sp much higher.
I think it is something of a non-story for now. It will bring economic benefits to the whole region and frankly the only country that can protect development is probably Israel. Sabre rattling and posturing comes with the territory. You need some offshore security and the Israelis are the major military power in the region with US backing.
It is better to have an asset that can be shared and Beirut could certainly do with the tax income when developed and as the Germans say "Wandel durch Händel".
*my daughter did a year at IFPO Beirut and is a fluent Arabic speaker. Might come in useful.
Hi, yes there is a disputed border between Israel and Lebannon in the Med which impacts on Karish gas field. I think and hope that it can be quite easily sorted out in arbitration.
"HEAD OF LEBANON'S HEZBOLLAH: THE GROUP CANNOT STAND WITH ITS HANDS FOLDED AS ISRAEL EXTRACTS GAS FROM THE KARISH FIELD."
HEAD OF LEBANON'S HEZBOLLAH: THE BUSINESS EXTRACTING GAS FROM KARISH IS A PARTICIPANT IN THIS ATTACK ON LEBANON, AND CONSEQUENCES WILL BEFALL THIS ENTERPRISE AND ITS ADMINISTRATION.
https://twitter.com/financialjuice1/status/1534966120913981453?s=21&t=f-FR1VIf18nqsEvTN2JJ4g
There wasn't a presentation and I hadn't prepared a list of questions. With larger numbers of PI's they get their own dynamics and you can feed of other attendees questions and the responses from the directors. You'll only get what's in the public domain anyway and you can pick up tidbits after the meeting has closed. I find they can be quite gossipy about other companies and can sometimes give you an insight that you won't find on a message board.
I expect to build up a rapport with their comms and IR and quite happy to approach them. With luck a few more PI's might start posting on here. It does help when other investors contribute because they often have strengths and knowledge that you're missing. If it's excitement you're after you won't find it here so this message board should be relatively troll free.
and that's a bonus.
Sounds like you were a VIP guest Roma I hope you enjoyed the tea and scones and thanks for the update
Good to hear you heard nothing untoward also, may take on a few more if the opportunity arises. The point about long-term contracts is of course, as I'm sure you're aware, is a double-edged sword and in this environment with soaring gas prices doesn't work in our favour. I think if I remember correctly the latest contract they announced, although it was a long-term, allowed for pricing fluctuation at various points depending on market pricing.
Did they mention anything about having to pay up additional monies to get the FPSO out of Singapore?
Cheers