The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
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Yes, good news that this has been settled reasonably quickly and we'll find out at what cost in the accounts but it seems there is nothing hanging over us (that we know about) moving forward. Hopefully, with a new board DX can now focus on what they are good at. I think Sisteract is right that there is value around this point but the Macro picture is far to blurry for for me and I'm beginning think there is seismic shift in the world economy coming with the Ukraine fall out when it comes so my finger is not to far from the eject button. Hopefully we'll see the 1p dividend and once that is confirmed I'll certainly be giving it alot of thought....maybe before that !
Couldn't agree more, should be onward and upwards from here. I think there could be a very nice steady rise in this over the next 6 months
Great news!
Yes... the share price drop is dissapointing but I think opportunity is not far away at this point. If it hits 25p I think there is 20%- 30% or so there in the relatively short term with dividend which sounds OK to me. I may consider it.
Stancroft will have ivested knowing the SP doesn't do much but the dividends and projections must have attracted them as I'm sure they spoke to Dx before Investing. That should give some confidence.
I think that's true to a point FJ but the ultimate decision makers...BOD has changed substantially. The new board haven't really shown much apart from to keep on keeping on but we do have a bit more clarity on capital allocation. It remains to be
seen how they are dealing with the Tuffnells claim behind the scenes.
The share price drift is disappointing but not totally unexpected. We are expecting announcements of new depots/upgrades
but I can't see any SP growth of note. The new 3% investor hasn't, probable 1p dividend hasn't and as you say FJ it really has to be something dramatic of sorts.
I try to keep abreast of logistics at my own micro level and it's interesting that two of my suppliers have changed from UPS to Evri and I have to say the communication from Evri has in these cases been very good.It's always interesting for me how DX are going to take marketshare from the mass of competitors in express or is there just enough for everyone.
I totally agree with Ports. I'll add that the valuation model won't have considered the fact that DX has been run by a bunch of clowns, causing all sorts of problems, and that the current management (who were all at DX during the difficulties) haven't yet shown that they're any better.
I can post message but I can't open a new thread. Anyone got the same problem?
Well, I respect anyones view on the yahoo article but in my view it's completely ridiculous. It's completely pointless saying a share could be this or could be that or should be this or should be that...... It's isn't..... It's non statement.It's where it is for a reason. There are no sentiment drivers.
You could make a case for a number of shares trading well below their intrinsic value currently. Theory is nothing. There are shares with more cash in the bank and no debt than their Mcap.
Similarly especially during covid there were many "hot shares" trading hundreds of percent above their intrinsic value and look what happened to them. Sentiment is everything.
If the Americans can't reach agreement on their debt ceiling there'll be a worldwide economic tsunami of problems and every share in the markets will be trading well below it's intrinsic value. In my view the big picture is everything currently.
Completely agree with the 50% discount!...good to see some vol going through today..more buying interest around...
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dx-group-plc-lon-dx-110548753.html
short piece from yahoo today
Anyone taking a 3% stake is good news as they will have done their due dilegence.
As expected the markets shrug their shoulders at the news !
Good to see SCT popping up with a new 3% stake. Searching the web it looks like SCT is the FO of William Berry, son of Nicholas Berry, the legendary buy out specialist and former owner of The Telegraph. Let's hope he's a chip off the old block and can see the value in DX that the market is missing!
Fj... Is there a niche to be found or created in Express ? I'm not sure there is. Isn't the premise that with the on line marketplace and Royal Mails failures there will be plenty for everyone. As long as DX provide a comparable service to their larger competitors they'll pick up some business but shooting the lights out isn't going to happen. It strikes me that it's just more of the same. They can't charge more than DPD, UPS et al and expect to gain great increases in marketshare. We have a new board so hopefully we'll see some clarity on a way forward but they can show some positivity by dealing with the Tuffnells claim as soon as possible rather than saying its going through legal proceedings which really means... it's going to cost !
Here's a recording from a recent investor webinar:
https://www.fmp-live.co.uk/events/dx-group-aim-iht-webinar
I just don't see DX going anywhere on its own. It's always been looking for *that* opportunity that will replace its document exchange business and it's never really found it. If the IDW freight market grows then DX might be able to grow with it but the express business is on a hiding to nothing unless they can find (or create) a niche that they can exploit and I doubt that the people running express are clever enough to find one.
The separation of freight and express continues to make sense because it provides dedicated facilities for the growth of the freight business and allows express to be sold or shut down without causing disruption to the freight network.
Absolutely Pianista. The volume of DPD vans is to be expected. The underlying point I am making in express is that operational leverage and efficiencies will only get you so far and at some point DX really have to be taking marketshare as I alluded to in earlier posts from people like DPD. Can they do it.... this is my concern and can they continue to do it profitably with the added investment required in new vans etc. etc. I use DPD a lot now and in my opinion they provide an exceptional service at a better cost which I expect from a bigger fish.
I don't disagree with any of the points you raise. There is nothing really driving sentiment wherever you look which is concern for us all.
Ports – you say you see a lot more DPD vans …..but that’s to be expected, isn’t it? DPD is a much, much bigger company than DX. However, as a minnow, Express has plenty of scope to increase its market share in a growing market, which should boost its profit margin through operational leverage (mind you, its operating profit is already fast approaching £18m, i.e. a respectable 10% operating margin on close to £180m turnover).
So I feel quite comfortable about the investment in depots and parcel handling equipment, which should also produce plenty of efficiency and productivity gains. Bottom line is that we still have some way to go before organic growth runs out of steam.
Clearly, we’ll never see the same SP growth as when the company went from basket case to recovery. But, relative to its earnings growth prospects and healthy cash position, the SP is definitely underperforming at the moment, which I can only imagine is for the reasons I’ve already set out.
Though, as I speak, it looks like today could be a turning point. But then you never know with daily SP movements, especially on AIM…
No Pianista... it hasn't been a great month but I'm not sure an end to tuffnellgate or improved PR is going to have any affect on the SP. Since the previous board was installed in 2017 the SP has done very little of note. The only sustained growth came from sustained director buys throughout 2020. Not withstanding the suspension the SP is now lower than it was in December 2020. News of depot openings/expansion good figures are met with a shrug of the shoulders by the markets...
yeah.... very good....next !. There is the odd peak and trough but interestingly there is no II interest at a lower share price now than Lombard or Schroders bought in with a dividend in the offing.perhaps the yield isn't enough.General sentiment is at rock bottom. Despite my earlier confidence thinking about it I'm not sure a share buy back will be of much benefit to the SP... I think I'd prefer a increased dividend but the amount of shares in issue is an admitted problem for DX.
Organic growth is all well and good but it's slow and with currently 15% to 18% of the IDW market there is alot to go at.I'd be hoping they would be on the aqquisition trail but it seems from the AR this is medium term possibility for DX so it's really a slow train moving on a very predictable track. Sometimes I find that comforting... other times I don't .My holding is enough that the dividend is worth it but come December I think it will be time for a review.
For me express has always been issue and I still really don't get the continued expansion. Sure there is more business to be had but how profitable and how much. They have said by having more local depots they can provide a better local service. That may be true but are the rewards there?. In the area I am there are 4/5 DPD vans that we see every day and probably a DX van once every other day. I don't really see how they can make great rather than steady progress.
I have to put my faith in the new board and things seem to going in the right direction but it's ordinary and we really need something out of the ordinary to generate SP growth.
...hasn’t been a great month for DX, has it? (a steady drop of c10% on very low turnover).
On the face of it, this is odd given the succession of RNSs confirming the fast pace of depot openings, and the likelihood of excellent trading results this year. However, against that there was the grant of share options to the CEO, with its surprisingly modest SP targets, e.g. a mere 30p threshold vesting target.
Most significant though, I think, is simply the background of poor sentiment following the year-long suspension. I’ve always thought it could take a year or so for DX to regain the trust it lost during that period. But then along came the lurid, and slightly amusing, headlines about “espionage”, which though unlikely to involve the company in a material cost, will have given at least some potential investors another reason to hold back.
So however good the numbers, they’ll need to work hard on their PR if the SP is to fully respond this year. As an absolute minimum, they need to dispose of the Tufnell's case asap.
The price rise by DX reminds me of a similar situation when I worked at Tuffnells years ago with many of the same management at DX now Tuffnells where getting more and more contracts and struggling to handle the extra work so they increased there prices 10% and lost a few customers but ended up doing slightly less for more profit and better service so could be a win win
Yes indeed ATPM, this board is an oasis of sensible and civil commentary in a mad, bad world of small cap chatland!
All through the suspension I came here to read people's thoughts - it was a refuge.
Long may it last.
Good luck to you too.
It's been interesting reading this forum of late. A lot of good discussion and dare I say, I've learned a fair bit (we're always learning).
Unhooked - some good advice from Ports on the AIM. All would do well to heed it. The voice of experience. DX has been a good investment for me. I bought in at 9p and I'm up 300% having cashed out 86% of my holding at around 30p in December. BUT....here's the thing. I only invest in companies I know - intimately. I do not gamble. I do not read the investment press, I go on who and what I know, personally, within a company. My view on DX at this point is it is a very different beast to two years ago. It will be steady as she goes. The days of 300% increase on holding are long gone unless you are prepared to stick around for a very long time (or bought in at 9p). BUT, that said, steady as she goes is not a bad thing, so long as the dividends flow.
As for Tuffnells being cheaper!! I'm not surprised! They're buying business for vehicle utilisation. Compared to DX their service is poor.. Internally I hear they are in a bit of a mess. As the old adage goes "you pays for what you get". If you're a business that see's the delivery/collection of your goods as an extension to your overall service offering to your customers, avoiding delivery failure is a must and you will pay a little extra to ensure that. The cream of what were Tuffnells hey day prior to the sale to Connect plc (Smiths News plc) has either gone their own way or they're at DX, but they're no longer at Tuffnells. MrGamble, you offer nothing credible to the investors on this chat forum with your post.
As for me, I'm out. It's been a ...... ride. I will not say fun ride with what happened last year, but, all's well that ends well and for now, the AIM is not for me. All the best everyone, I sincerely wish you success.
I wouldn't bother responding to him Sisteract, a quick look through his posting history shows he's only ever commented on DX in a negative way relating to deliveries, drivers and pricing (more from a customers perspective rather than investor so not really sure why he's bothering tbh)
We'll MrGamble. That's a throw away comment with all due respect. This isn't a Tuffnells discussion board.... I'm not tobothered what Tuffnells are doing. Nothing in the public domain says DX is losing market share and business to Tuffnells. So it's completely meaningless. I could send a parcel for £4.45 by Royal Mail who have been losing nearly a million a day or DPD who charge nearly double and are making alot of money. There is nothing wrong in being the highest price if people want it and pay it. Look at the figures, the profitability, free cash and dividend tell the story.I know it's not IDW... just an example. "Turnover for show..... Profit for dough"
Its a circular, fully round the board. Tuffnells much much cheaper and showing signs of gaining more and more custom.