Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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All good stuff, TD.
Whilst it is great news the coal units are running, it is going under the Rader that the spare (non CFD or ROC) unit is generating and capturing these day ahead prices.
Also, Cruachan, the pumped storage unit, is coining it in.
.
By my working out, we are getting the post 2027 business for free as 2022 and 2023 have a lot of sales locked in at these high prices.
Another important dynamic, especially on plant which rarely runs, is NDZ - notice to deviate from zero. Physically, the time it takes to fill the boiler with water, fire it up to temperature and pressure then run up the turbine. Dx5 & 6 currently showing 720 mins, when clap cold it's pushed out to 999mins. NDZ needs to be <90mins for the SO to instruct a sync. This gap is bridged by a warming or BM Start-up instruction. This is not a firm instruction to start, merely to come to a state of readiness. It can be cancelled at any time. Drax 5 received such an instruction for Tuesday, it was stood down after about 4 hours at 85mins notice. These instructions are also in the public domain, so the whole industry new on Sunday that Drax 5&6 might run on Monday. Info here: https://extranet.nationalgrid.com/sonar
As ted says: MEL is sent out capability; FPN is what they intend to send out in a half hour period. BOA is Bid Offer Accept. Alongside FPNs (which must be submitted by gate close, 1 hour before the beginning of settlement period) a Generator must submit bid prices and volumes (to buy back power, ie reduce load), and offer prices and volumes (to sell more power ie increase load). The System Operator uses these bid and offer acceptances to fine balance the system. So, the yellow BOA lines on the graphs are deviations from FPN instructed by the SO. Because Drax (almost) never PN Units 5 and 6 on, they only run under BOAs. There are many other parameters involved in such runs - run-up rates, Stable Export Limit, minimum non zero time. Not sure how much more to say. I'm happy to tell you all that I know, but I'd be typing 'til the end of next year.
Thanks Tufted and Tad for the info. I am using the following site to track future elecrricity prices and so far it seems that the prices will remain high for a while so should be good for Drax.
https://marketwatch.zenergi.co.uk/market-analysis/
FPN - Final Physical Notification - the amount they WILL generate in the relevent period.
MEL - Maximum export limit - The amount they CAN generate in the relevent period.
I need to check up on BOA.
TuftedDuck, what do the labels FPN, MEL and BOA mean on your friend's website? Drax 5 and 6 are currently showing MEL of 645MW - is that just the nominal capacity?
Can't promise, but I'll try. It tends to be when there is very little wind around teatime / darkness (highest demand of the day). On Monday, there was only about 700MW of wind. Today and the next couple of days it's forecast over 10,000MW.
The main interest on the system now, is what will happen next winter. Drax 5 & 6, Ratcliffe 1, and the remaining 2 units at West Burton A are all due to decommission this summer. I think there is a good chance that owners may be incentivised to keep some of these units available.
Tufted. Thank you for correcting me. I bow to your greater technical knowledge. I assumed wrongly that big increase in coal usage in power generation was due to input from Drax. Can you maybe let us know if/when Drax Coal kicks in? Captain Birdseye!!!
Idad, sorry you find it too complex. I accept that the amount of info provided can be daunting, I have the advantage of having worked with it for many years. But, it's no good looking at simplified info presentation and making assumptions -
"Coal, much of it powered by Drax continuing to feed into grid at 5% of total output at 0500hrs this morning!"
There are currently 4 coal units on the bars (3 at 05:00hrs) They are all at Ratcliffe, owned by Uniper. Ratcliffe still self dispatches much of the time - selling power in the market. Drax 5 & 6 only run when called for by the System Operator.
Coal, much of it powered by Drax continuing to feed into grid at 5% of total output at 0500hrs this morning! Filling our collective boots... But thosec shoosh don't tell those ghastly Greens who'd rather our lights went out instead haha!
Thankyou Tufted. Your solution helps to an extent but is too complex and complicated for a layman such as me. My solution is better I think just for it's simplicity. Captain Birdseye!
This is a website created by a friend of mine. It pulls in all the data from Elexon and displays it very well.
http://bmrsdata.ddns.net/?fbclid=IwAR0a7Z5bY05ayvNuxzJtOEnzhTRXQHnOLOluzLsAhAs8X4zm6QT2RSskY68
Just google - energy grid UK and scroll down to generation. There you see coal supplying 5% of generating needs at 2100 hrs today. Coal normally supplies nil so Drax obviously doing well in supplying shortfall! Captain Birdseye!
Tuftedduck: I am looking at the site and can't seem to find the relevant information. Would you please mind sharing the link. Thanks
aarya - It's all freely available data from elexon, called BMRA data.
"for Drax today. With very low wind, both the coal units have been bought on in the balancing mechanism at £4,000 and £4,050 per MWhr."
Tuftedduck: Where did you get this information from. Thanks.
When the Grid is running the OCGT's at near maximum output you know things are getting desperate.
Like now.
Not quite NR. When the System Operator buys units on, he buys them to minimum stable load (300MW for Drax Units) unless the **** really hits the fan. Currently grossing £2.36M/hr.
so, about £5.5m/ hr revenue, less operating costs.....13th May will be gravy, meat and all the trimmings!
for Drax today. With very low wind, both the coal units have been bought on in the balancing mechanism at £4,000 and £4,050 per MWhr.