Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Agreed Jack.
That was me who just bought that 100k at 31p :)
SP on the day of a confirmed deal depends entirely on the deal itself, regardless of farm down or capital raise. What I will say is I believe a raise will be very near, or higher, than the current sp. This will undoubtedly happen with major shareholders. We'll end up giving away 30% of the company, but maintain greater share of Selene (and any spoils).
As for any crazy share price one way or another, the highs are only going to depend on what we find. With a farm down and losing another 5-10% we may get to 40p after a couple of days. The climb will really start as newsflow begins for all the drills. And getting anywhere near 100p will depend on us hitting / proving up their estimates in at least one of the targets. As for dropping to 10p, this simply isn't going to happen. They've got that in cash. And they will easily be able to do a raise for £12m, no doubt. As a partner that's exactly what I'd want as I'd get two fields with my ownership, which is why I think a raise won't be at much of a discount.
Bottom line, the answer is 'how long is a piece of string?'. But if you make me guess I'll say 35p within 4 weeks post raise (@30p) and 40p with a farm down of 10% or less of field ownership. The funding won't fall through so not much point in going the other way. They'll either farm down or do a raise. So the absolute bottom in my opinion is 25p (post 30p raise) before a climb with every piece of news.
The more interesting question is what will be the share price when the first drill starts turning. I'll go with 50p. And I think it will be 60p just before the first news hits. The AIM lemmings will start piling in the weeks leading up to drill announcement and the 6 weeks in between spud and result. They'll let you double your money with no risk. Any guesses after that is just that, a guess. GLA
Dr P
I think we need to view the order of potential news.
We know that Valaris 123 will be on route to:
“One-well contract with Ithaca Energy in the UK North Sea for heavy duty harsh environment jackup VALARIS 123. The contract is expected to commence in April 2024 and has an estimated duration of between 45 and 72 days. The minimum total contract value is $6.3 million.”
The March corporate presentation shows Selene mobilisation and drilling during the period June to Sept, after the farm out and full funding from Dana.
“The two wells will be drilled using the Valaris 123, a heavy duty jack-up rig, with Selene and Pensacola being drilled as a two well sequence, with the contract and mobilisation commencing in the June-July 2024 period.”
On that basis the outcome of Selene maybe known before Pensacola funding is confirmed.
The March corporate presentation shows Pensacola mobilisation and drilling during the period August to December.
Clearly they were comfortable to sign the rig up before full disclosure of funding, so on that basis a Pensacola agreement must be advanced to a stage that permitted that action.
Obviously if that is not the case, the best time for a placing would be June onwards riding off the back of anticipation of Selene.
Jack
Repeating my entry from 8 Feb 2024; good luck all, we should know fairly soon. Everything is still up for grabs!!
"Status after Selene farm down (this is obviously a 2 step process now):
(all in pence)
boom.boom 35/15 (20 if partial)
Glide 40/5
InsideLeft 104/6
SouthEast18 60/18
No.2 105/12
Butcher-boy 120/19
Titmnttm 90/12
MarineConsult 55/10
Purdey1 80/15
Dr Patience 71/13
----------------------------------------------------------------
The simple question was: what happens, on close, to the Delt share price on the day of a confirmed funding deal (the expected outcome) or a message saying funding attempts through monetisation/ farm down have failed (ie placing process must be initiated)? Prize: the honour and glory!😀
No more entries obviously..."
Bp, you are right, that's the declared plan and the most likely outcome.
The main reason for the current depressed sp is the uncertainty; ie what if they cannot not make a deal? Then fundraise. A fundraise is actually even better from a financial benefit perspective, but that's not the way it's gonna go.
We had a competition a while back; guessing the sp after the 2 deals have been announced. I will find...
On top of that, don't forget the actual drills, both could reduce or enhance the assets. So far Delt has been conservative, so I am hoping for double good news!!😀
""Selene is fully covered through JV partner, However, DELT needs to arrange funds for Pensacola.""
Boom Boom, why ?? they have CLEARLY stated in the March presentation that they will look to cover Pensecola with additional farm out, as per the copied reference below !!!
Shell currently have 30%, so there is a LOT of room for Deltic to play herem they can EASILY get this covered for what ? 20%, leaving them the lions share of 50% in their hands, and i WOULD NOT be surprised if Dana is the one that takes it, since they are already in for Selene with Deltic & Shell, perfect marriage.
Would it affect the SP ?? I doubt it, if anything I recon it will enhance it !!
Near term crystalisation of value from success
Deltic seeking an additional partner to the Pensacola JV with
aim of:
Reducing cost exposure to appraisal and development
activity
Retaining exposure to appraisal success, future cash
flow and potential commodity price rises
Recovering an element of back costs
I think that's right! Until news - good or bad - that is!
It's still only 1.5 p in old shares, super low given the much better position we are now in vs teh past. So much fear around the next deal not happening, obviously.
The recent SP dynamics & movements seem to me to follow a very similar pattern to when the SP was around 20p about the time of the announcement of the Selene deal. Because valuations & prospects have moved on dramatically since then though, the SP movements are around a base of 30p rather than the previous 20p.
GGG, looking at the pattern: I agree, it's currently small fry!
Having observed patterns here and elsewhere, it could be:
1) News imminent, it's leaked to a junior analyst or friends and family...it happens!
2) as you say, fundraise pump...highly unlikely in my view as they have plenty of time to finalise the next deal!
3) just one of those days where more decide this is good idea, vs those who don't! Random.
Probably 3.
And yes, I also think this is a good idea! Not a risk free venture to drill for oil&gas, so the potential upside will commensurate with that😀
Selene is fully covered through JV partner, However, DELT needs to arrange funds for Pensacola.
Assume the drill cost on success case is $47m (similar to Selene cost), then DELT needs to arrange their 30% cost ($14m or GBP 11.5m). In case, DELT further farm out 15% to new partner, and in that case, DELT needs to cover their 15% cost of $7m = GBP 7m; unless new partner cover DELT cost.
Anything can happen … wait game now
Small stuff so wouldn't say anyone is loading up. Could also mean there's a raise coming and they're boosting the sp. Who knows. Small stuff at the moment. Having pick up another 50k shares at 30p I'm almost at breakeven.
Very good prospects here. Not sure when the market is going to wake up, but reckon it will be when we ink this last deal. Hopefully one that has limited % field ownership handed over.
Loading up
Has a deal been done I wonder?
Caesar, only the first drill is fully funded. See RNS. Deal being finalised for the second as we speak. Cash call not planned, but always possible until the deal is announced.
I expect news within the next 1-2 months max. (giving enough time to negotiate and prepare contracts). Pure guess, I have no inside info. Could be tomorrow!
If both drills are funded why are people suggesting that there is possibly a need for further cash?
Mooching, agreed news/ no news!
If you believe news will come + drills will happen, then I think it's ok to say it's a good opp to top up. No-one knows where the intermediate low will be, of course! The MM will make money in all scenarios, simple!!
Yes, typical AIM/small cap...
Good news : spike the price and then...
No news : just keep dropping the price until holders lose the will/netve to hole.
Then repeat.
Just keep holding until fundamental news lands, assuming you believe it's coming.
But please, everyone, stop with the 'good time to top' like it's some sort of idle threat against MM's, just boring.
Ridiculous big drop for so few shares sold. Aim at it as usual. Good chance to buy more.
GGG, time to hold your nerve...although it's entirely possible it will drop further until we have news. Past patterns have been similar. Thin volumes, impatient short term holders, several factors at play. Good chance to top up, although I doubt you can pick up large volumes at these levels!
I will be pretty happy with a 3-4 bagger from here.
I am all in, did my topping up in the low 20s; just waiting for the excitement to start this summer😀
Grain LNG are currently hold 20% of uk gas and are building a new tank as we speak to up it to 25% storage . And potentialy are building upto a futher 2 LNG storage tanks investing for the future possible gas fired powerstations
Even Labour could not be stupid enough to allow the Lights to go out, Mortuaries overflowing with hypothermic cases, to say nothing of the Trade Unions whose jobs would disappear.
Energy security is essential for any civilised society.
Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68538951.amp
All over the news right time right market that is to stockmarket edge
Good news on the face of it, but I suspect will only be overturned after the next election, unless they bring back Boris, they have enough time if they are quick.
Got to be good news for us ( Deltic) and should give further impetus to the SP!!