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Crowdstrike valuation now 37 billion usd - how does that compare to Dark on Price / Earnings , Sales , growth etc , now Crowdstrike down from 300 to 167 so a drop of some 130 usd from 300 or some 40 per cent down from peak
Paolo Alto down from peak 468 to 380 or a drop of 80 from 468 or around 17 per cent .. market cap 47 billion
Fortinet 369 peak down to 292 or 80 usd down from peak or 16 per cent around , market cap 47 billion usd
Sentinel One market cap 10.7 billion … down from 77 usd to 40 usd so almost 47 per cent down …from peak
Monday night Tech might rebound with people buying Dip ..
so Dark already did 62 per cent down and is already generally on the new accumulating phase most likely
Sanchez are you selling Monday morning to buy back a few per cent lower ?
Agree - this is a U.K. case
As for markets on Monday , we might see a bounce in Monday afternoon in Usa time or Tuesday .
The question is , will the bounce be the start of a new rally or a further retracement bear market in Usa to follow ?
This is where Technical Analysis on key support levels useful on S and P and Nasdaq
Honestly Ftse , CAC , Dax , have oil , industrial , Mining and banks , so should be more resilient… also Ftse only at same level as before Covid whereas usa indices above pre covid …
Dark works with companies / governments not individuals on average deal sizes that are big and quite sticky …
More multi million dollar deals will help too
I must admit that I don't get what all the fuss is about reference ML, Autonomy, HL and any fraud allegations. If ML adhered to UK accounting principles and regulations then it falls to the Buyer "buyer beware" to do their own due diligence and it is then for them to decide on the offer they make. Thereafter it is not fraud. Furthermore if it is a UK listed company that has been bought then the courts that deal should be UK.
Usa a blood bath today !
Fed Powell needs to calm the market next week …
Will there be buying on the dip , or a further brutal retreat … Usa is messy now …. But Europe shares/ China shares better value maybe !
Next Wed night we will know more !
Inflation will it help Software companies on Prices - a complex issue !
Sanchez - again don’t be share if you spot a day trade opportunity- Up 3/5 per cent before a retracement or a sell high before a 3 / 5 retracement - not easy at all , today down 4 per cent then up 5 per cent then down 3 per cent …very difficult - need a time machine !
I'm leaning towards Lending here but getagrip more or less said the same. I accept that there are no guarantees and I'm extremely dubious of anything beyond 1 year for financial calculations but you have to try because companies have projects that go further out and they take years to bed in and reach scale. At least with interest rates you have bond markets to get some idea and the credit rating agencies approach is also worth having. Many analysts have an accountancy background and are also worth listening to as well. You both come over as intelligent observers so don't fall out as this board is a bit thin on the ground when it comes to valuable input. I'm looking for a little more than could go up, could go down next week. I think you make a financial model for the foreseeable future and then accept that further out wobbles about and it is sometimes easier to pin jelly to a wall.
Strangely Autonomy and Hewlett Packard will have used DCF to determine the share price. It looks like they are about $5 billion dollars adrift of each others estimates. All I am saying is that DCF is neither 100% reliable, nor particularly accurate! But, if you like it, have fun with it!
Getagrip and Lending well done on both great contributions… appreciated!
Of course there has been a Tech sell off in Usa , and Nasdaq down a bit on past 3 months … so by chance almost the Campaign of shorters and PH happened by luck at same time as the general Tech retracement .
I hear Fed Powell might make a speech next Wednesday which the eyes will be watching …
Today 3 trillion dollars of Options expired in the Usa and Indexes in Usa are near 200 day MA .
The 3 driving forces in next 3 weeks for Dark might be
1. Overall market direction in Usa for tech and Nasdaq ( But European Tech already much cheaper so less impacted and Dark already down 58 per cent so already down )
2. Supply/ Demand for Darks shares … let’s see Feb 1 , the public statistics on the lending per centage of Darks shares … if correct around 4 per cenT in December 2021 of total shares ? Until the short fund like SF decide to move on , they can still manipulate the price easily on the margin and range trade daily … if they cover their positions dark can rise .
3. Of course the ML news … and any short term impact.
4. New Big investors buying in after ML news
At the moment the Short hedge fund like SF might still be a weight holding down the Sp if Dark
Dark results and growth are excellent , next results in April .
Good weekend
Getagrip - I spent 10 years of my life responsible for project evaluation in a very large company in the oil/mineral business and DCF is the only process we used and is the bread and butter approach for most business project evaluations. If that is the definition of a beginner in DCF so be it. I recognise that evaluating high growth companies is more uncertain because of greater clarity in how things will turn out. So any picture painted of the future will be somewhat diffuse but it is also the method used by most brokers and great investors like Buffett. I will continue to use it for my own purposes as it is the only way I know to get a deeper understanding of how a company will add value to me as a investing and non-trading shareholder.
To me the value of this BB is to share information and debate different approaches. Good luck to all in any way you like to invest and trade.
L - Patronising, pompous & pontificating and not in the slightest respectful, as I would expect. If your projections in year two, let alone year 10, give you the vaguest clue as to a shares present value, good luck to you.
The last thing I would pay any heed to is a page from the beginners guide to DCF, as I have read too many of them over the years. I even managed to absorb the principle of compound interest; not when I completed a Master's degree, but when I was 7-years old.
Good posts Lending and Getafgrip. No doubt Hewlitt Packard used DCF when arriving at a price for Autonomy. I once asked a partner of a Big4 Accountancy firm to explain the difference between DCF and NPV. He actually understood less than me. There are too many variables for it to be the only yardstick and is often as wrong as Mr. Market. I actually agree with both of you and that is confusing because Lending disagrees with getafgrip. Do we have 3 views now?
I quite like the uniqueness of the Darktrace situation. A lot revolves around a potential court case with ML who is only an advisor to the company now. I think it is media hype and anyway the company is quite young but with talented individuals and likely to have better governanace and auditor scrutiny because of aforesaid situation. Then there is the fact that it is has a large UK presence and not everybody wants to work in the US. Try factoring that into a model.
Getafgrip - I respectfully disagree with your interpretation of DCF analysis. If you understand compound interest the concept is very very simple to understand as it is just the reverse. To usefully use it of course one does require a very good and deep understanding of the business and the competing environment and especially on a view as to the growth expected in revenue and in margin starting with the current situation. These numbers are not plucked up from the air but a rational interpretation of future possibilities. It should not be based on a single evaluation but are based upon central assumptions sensitised to give a series of “ what ifs” which would allow a judgement to be made of on the intrinsic value of the business and hence SP. There is no better way to get a handle on the value of a business - but of course any evaluation of future events is always going to be uncertain, but without it one’s understanding is meagre. Relying solely on what Mr Market decides the SP should be and relying on the shape of past movements of the SP graphs to determine the intrinsic value of a business - you are then basing your understanding on what others think and as we know it is mostly irrational.. But each to their own.
Nidec - I understand - yes supply demand … don’t forget there might be people who have still Shorted … let’s see Feb 1
I think new Investors , new demand , waiting for ML news first
For now range trading 405 to 445 p … it seems
ML news public within 3 weeks , let’s see
yes, you just can't rush these things. I'm not bothered about time-frames; some here are, but I'm not. This will rise in its own good time, but best to keep things very realistic here, or you will end up rather frustrated. If this closes at £6.50p £7 by the end of 2022, then I for one, will be more than happy. That would be a very tasty multiple, on expected Sales, in my opinion. ATB
What happened was that more shares became available to the market than were wanted. Supply and demand, too many shares and too few buyers pushes the price down.
Throw in the ML concerns, the continuing lack of profits (and I dont remember seeing anything from Dark about when they expect to make a profit), a general malaise in tech share prices, Peel Hunt, and a general feeling that Darks SP went up too fast and couldnt continue doing so.
Price falls from 950 to 800, IIs algos kick in and they sell off, so price falls further and more algos kick in. Rinse and repeat, we end up around 400-450, probably a fair level given that we seem to have some price stability around this level until some good or bad news comes to get it moving again.
Nidec - there was a news article or two last year , about the valuation Dark want for Ipo … around 480/500 p but in the end they sold a few shares at discount …
Nidec people were willing to pay 1000 p now 434 p … what changed ?
Let’s say CRWD and S are down 40 per cent from peak then you might argue Dark could be 600/700 now … the extra downside was due to things like FUD , Ftse 100 tracker funds , lockup , ML and shorts and good honest LTH selling due to the exaggerated decline - it was a very successful Campaign by PH / SF … now PH are hold ! Let’s see …
I think ML news once out , investors will have less uncertainty and buy into High growth Successful company - Fingers Crossed - no one knows for sure !
Genuinely thought we were heading back to the 480's and 490's there.
Charles, why should we be 650/700p today?
The SP is what people are prepared to pay, not some arbitrary figure you pluck out of thin air.
You do understand the principles of supply and demand, don't you?
Getagrip - yes you are right last September we were dreaming of Ftse 100 …
Then a perfect storm and Campaign by PH , SF and others dropped the SP 62 per cent , only 35 per cent was warranted with Nasdaq and Tech retracement in my view , so we should be at 650 / 700 p today .
The drop was helped by FUD ( discredited FUD ) , fear of end of lock up , and Trackers / long term holders forced out the Business is solid , growth is solid , big shareholders holding , chairman bought at 600 p around , so only 2 things , 1. When will shorters decide to move on ( Feb 1 we can see per centage of shares in loan ) . 2. ML news impact if any
For now I want to find a good to to buy and sell same day or the reverse ideally with 4/5 per cent profit , waiting for signals from Sanchez
All the brokers can be right this year …All .
I well understand that, bobocaca. My issue here is that too many are assuming that Dark will ever make a profit and are basing short term SP guesses (I wont flatter them by using 'predictions' as that to me suggests some knowledge behind their guess) on profits that may be many months or even years away.
History is littered with companies with products many loved and which seemed to have great potential but who failed to make a profit before eventually going under.
In traditional business, you open a shop, when it is profitable, you open another one. But the overhead is roughly the same for each shop e.g. rent, salary etc despite you could get economy of scale and buy goods at cheaper price.
But it is different for tech. Tech companies spend long time in R&D to design their products and factory. They can't sell unfinished products hence unprofitable in early years. But once they have product and factory, the cost of production is low on almost free for software. That's why you get exponential growth once that stage is hit, look at Tesla.
So please, view profit differently for tech.
If Darks real IPO price was 500p (where do you get that from, can you add a link?) then todays price is about 13% down despite the 'great' figures being bandied around.
Bottom line is, a combination of low liquidity due to the small number of shares on the open market last summer and an 'ooh look, a tech company' mentality, pushed price beyond its true value.
Growing revenue and client base means diddly squat if they cant convert this into profit. Until that happens the SP will drift.
If sophisticated DCF indicates that performance charts for Bitcoin and Dark are similar, there is little surprise that I have missed this revelation!
Which planets tracking system did this come up on! I would guess Uranus!
The Graph of Bitcoin over the past year or so looks similar to Dark ! Bitcoin down 8 per cent today so far .
However Dark sells software on Subscription… Dark grew revenues and grew clients from 5500 to 6500
Bitcoin / Dark actually will not follow each other as sooner or later the Sheltie Rocket will happen :)
Should be spelt Waved!