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CR888, as I said -happy to stay in cash for a while, although Ocado looks interesting.
Rewind to the days of Tremor, if anyone recalls them, and you'll find a situation marked by potential failure, but it had a spurt of significant rises - I got out before it eventually dived. RR was also facing significant challenges not too long ago, I made a modest profit there. Many thought Dark was destined for failure. It's interesting how quickly we forget. Now, consider these instances: two potential disasters and one star fallen out of favour, all of which turned out quite good for me. Let's reflect on that for a moment.
I am out too, Dark has been a good investment. Made 100% in post IPO hype before selling at £10 and then jumped back in at £4 average to sell at £6...if the deal does not work through I will come back for more. I have hedged my bets putting half my Dark holding in MNG and the other half in SN.
I am still sceptical of both options, but fid not see any better options in the FTSE. Any other options, I am happy to hear!
ITV were a surprise disaster when they tried to do Netflix type stuff
Surely you have ideas , even Buffet has ideas....buy China funds ?
PS
... I do have a holding in ITV, long,
I'm not sure how that will pan out - but at the moment I'm just under break even.
No immediate plans, CR888
I will stay in cash for a while until an opportunity comes along.
Winstanel fully understand but where do you plan to invest next :)
the employees trust may need to follow the board ... secure a good future ...with TB , when is the vote?
I'm mostly out now - with just a small holding left for reasons of curiosity as to where this will go. Good luck all.
Whispers, anything could happen:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-13383229/CITY-WHISPERS-Mystery-lingers-Darktraces-big-shareholders-prepared-4-2bn-takeover.html
I think I have said most of what I can say , now very little from me - very busy travelling too next 4 weeks , so over and out … wait and see , anything can still happen ( just different probabilities)
If not , then as the Times article says “ Hold “
sorry - capitalised version
perhaps time for a post-mortem. comparing the communications from berkshire hathaway (buffett) and dt’s bod is like chalk and cheese. what buffett reports to shs is clear and relevant, some of what dt focuses on is irrelevant from sh perspective and perhaps somewhat devious imho.
in all its communications dt, focuses on adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation & amortisation (ebitda). as this metric does not take account of it and capital requirements, munger (buffett’s late business partner), succinctly recommended that whenever you see ebitda in a financial statement you should replace it with the words “bull**** earnings”. to build on this analogy, and for reasons given below, may i humbly suggest that adjusting ebitda by removing ongoing costs like share based compensation (sbc) is akin to the bull having a serious bout of diarrhoea.
sbc is a major cost to the owners as it dilutes their share of the ownership of the company, and, more importantly, their share of the company’s future earnings -,real and more impactful on sh returns than the actual equivalent cost of the shares.
having read all of the buffett’s. annual sh letters, i think buffett would have written to sh.s. something like this:
dear sh. as owners of xxx i am pleased to report on what we are doing on your behalf to maximise your returns on your investment. the company goes from strength to strength with a high revenue growth rate and even higher commensurate growth in profit and the ensuing free cash flows. this, together with the financial strength of the company, means we are in a position to maximise your wealth creation buy buying back and cancelling shares - particularly beneficial now as the sp is being undervalued by the market.
we therefore propose to do this and will seek your approval. this will have the advantage of compounding your fractional ownership each year, on top of the anticipated rise in the free cash flow. with exponential growth on exponential growth you may expect exceptional returns when the market wakes up to the true value of your company. but the later this happens, the better your returns will be.
at the same time, we realise that our approach to share based compensation is working against the your interests as owners, reducing your fractional ownership rather than increasing it. and, unfortunately, the lower the sp the greater the dilution becomes. we therefore propose paying bonuses/incentives in cash in the future, which will be of no consequence to the profitability of the company, nor will it reduce the bonuses and incentives of the execs, but will make the accounts more transparent and understandable and allow you to get higher returns. however, we will still require management to buy shares in the market using their bonuses to achieve a certain percentage ownership. …………. yours sincerely, chairman, bod
i wish - and anyway it is too late.
perhaps time for a post-mortem. comparing the communications from berkshire hathaway (buffett) and dt’s bod is like chalk and cheese. what buffett reports to shs is clear and relevant, some of what dt focuses on is irrelevant from sh perspective and perhaps somewhat devious imho.
in all its communications dt, focuses on adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation & amortisation (ebitda). as this metric does not take account of it and capital requirements, munger (buffett’s late business partner), succinctly recommended that whenever you see ebitda in a financial statement you should replace it with the words “bull**** earnings”. to build on this analogy, and for reasons given below, may i humbly suggest that adjusting ebitda by removing ongoing costs like share based compensation (sbc) is akin to the bull having a serious bout of diarrhoea.
sbc is a major cost to the owners as it dilutes their share of the ownership of the company, and, more importantly, their share of the company’s future earnings - real and more impactful on sh returns than the actual equivalent cost of the shares.
having read all of the buffett’s. annual sh letters, i think buffett would have written to sh.s. something like this:
dear sh. as owners of xxx i am pleased to report on what we are doing on your behalf to maximise your returns on your investment. the company goes from strength to strength with a high revenue growth rate and even higher commensurate growth in profit and the ensuing free cash flows. this, together with the financial strength of the company, means we are in a position to maximise your wealth creation buy buying back and cancelling shares - particularly beneficial now as the sp is being undervalued by the market.
we therefore propose to do this and will seek your approval. this will have the advantage of compounding your fractional ownership each year, on top of the anticipated rise in the free cash flow. with exponential growth on exponential growth you may expect exceptional returns when the market wakes up to the true value of your company. but the later this happens, the better your returns will be.
at the same time, we realise that our approach to share based compensation is working against the your interests as owners, reducing your fractional ownership rather than increasing it. and, unfortunately, the lower the sp the greater the dilution becomes. we therefore propose paying bonuses/incentives in cash in the future, which will be of no consequence to the profitability of the company, nor will it reduce the bonuses and incentives of the execs, but will make the accounts more transparent and understandable and allow you to get higher returns. however, we will still require management to buy shares in the market using their bonuses to achieve a certain percentage ownership. …………. yours sincerely, chairman, bod
some musings and i wish - but with this bod it would never happen
Lets avoid personal attacks
Mutual respect
Alternative views welcome ...
The fact is no one knows (except those perhaps planning a takeover bid secretly ) have any idea if a higher bid will come in (including me)
Does anyone know the timetable for a Vote etc...
The vote may or may not succeed
If you believe the Vote will succeed, and no other bids, feel free to sell all shares now (honestly if you can find a better share that can go up by more than 5 % in next 3 months why not)
Even if the Vote is no, I believe Dark will be at 600 p wiothin 6 months anyway...
So one reason I hold most shares now.....is for a higher bid to come along if it does, great, if not then move on to better shares
Sheltie I respect your views, except you were too bearings 250p
Now a zero % chance highly likely as AI investor says...
Zero or 88 per cent who knows ....what is sure no one knows if anothedr buyer will emerge .... but as still some time ....I give Dark a chance of a higher biddeer.... but certainly those who believe no other bidder will emerge is a fair view too
Just pulling your leg with the Sun...I do glance at the Sun for news too!
That ***** word, was itchy with a b in front of
why would people bother to reply to you 888, when you insult them just for having an opposing view to you?
this was a *****y, very childish thing to write (and also totally unnecessary):- "the sun and mirror are on shelties side as they also lack insight and information on the real world". i will leave you to it, as it's over for dt now. . .
0 % chance
Board unanimous and already has been holders on board
I bet 88 per cent likely as of today , still time
Feel free to post your probability guess from zero to 100
Sheltie might be low say 15 per cent and I am higher today 88 per cent
Please post we we get an idea - feel free to add any reasons for your guesstimate
Thanks
The fact is no one knows -
No one knows what Microsoft / Google and others plan to do
We just make our best guess
So I think Sheltie thinks it’s unlikely
Whereas I believe why not ?
The Ft thinks the same as me , so does the Times
The Sun and Mirror are on Shelties side as they also lack insight and information on the real world
Face it - Dark is up for sale - everyone knows it , place your bets !
8 is the lucky number
Nice post - well done
Nice post - well done
Sheltie, You clearly never particularly liked Darktrace as an investment. You are on here like telling everyone that no other bid will come in. That may or may not be true however I have to say that you have been wrong before. Like when you were telling everyone that Darktrace was a screaming sell in in January 2023. The share price back then was 2.39. Anyone who took your advice and sold would have missed out a 150% rise in the share price. As for Darktrace not making enough profit. It took a decade before Amazon turned a profit. Plenty of other similar examples.
Well listening to you all , and I do listen …
I am now lowering my chance of a higher takeover bid from 69 % up 50 %
Investment bankers surely would need 2/3 weeks to get one of their clients to bid .. at least , certainly if nothing appears by around June 8 th or so … then I will start counting my chickens …
Sheltie I’m curious. On what basis do you say “ as it's just not worth any more”. How do you determine this? Have you calculated it intrinsic value based on revenue growth projections, earnings margins and cash conversion metrics. Or is it based upon your gut feeling or TA?
This TB offer . . .