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Just noticed MSTR is up 20% today. Before the recent listing of BTC ETFs in the US, MSTR traded at a premium to its BTC holdings, which could be justified to some degree as it was the go to proxy for US equity market exposure to BTC.
Following the listing of the ETFs, which are highly liquid and closely track the value of their BTC holding, there is no longer a case for MSTR to trade at much if any premium at all. However, MSTR has gone vertical since the ETF listings and is now at a whopping 43% premium. I have plenty of exposure through DAGB, but honestly, it's seems ridiculous. Can investors not do even the simplest of valuations? They'd get far more bang for their buck buying one of the ETFs, never mind a crypto baskets at a deep discount like KR1. But, who cares. The're piling in regardless.
There seems to be switching from other crypto related companies, particularly miners, to MSTR, which is stifling their progress. My guess is Saylor is about to do a huge placing at MSTR into this rise and will use the proceeds to buy loads more BTC, which should turbo charge the bull market, so the current outpeformance of MSTR may be a blessing in disguise for the whole sector.
Anyone have a different take on MSTR, that might explain what is going on?
Yes, we do and the timings with US markets and DAPP.
I am relatively new to this board and this ETF, so sorry if it is common knowledge, but it seems that the Discount/Premium to NAV (which can be easily viewed on trading-view) plays an important role on the price of this. Over the past 5 days, this has been fluctuating significantly. Might be worth taking note of this
@Gower like all industries and maybe life, the weak will fade away and the strong will get stronger. The fund holds the most weighting with the strongest miners. Marathon hits it's mining targets but also sets out a new strategy for future growth but the immediacy of the market doesn't like it so it gets hammered and we suffer. Iren 40% dilution recently hammered. On the other hand Cleamspark was $6 a few weeks a go went up to $23.
Take some profit.
These miners are the ultimate BTC proxies on steroids win and lose big, these are not totally BTC correlated. I don't want to own BTC on it's own but I believe in MSTR so I have a large hold and adding position (pca in) as my closest BTC proxy which is a little saner than the miners. I'm not so sure about your belief of the economics of the halving.
With the scramble for BTC, its price increases through scarcity. The reward per block is reduced but the price per coin is increased. The fees that miners get have also increased and will probably carry on in the future. When the weak fall as they do now the hash rate drops, the strong step in and keep the hash rate up and rising. Most of the companies in this fund are going to be the winners because they will have the cheapest sources of energy and highest hash rate.
My biggest fear? is the USA government getting involved with regulation.
The fund is volatile, treat it that way get in and out. If you want to hold something I can't see past MSTR, CLSK and COIN as being safer winners.
GLA
The price of miners depends on perception. Last BTC rise people thought miners would be hugely profitable. This time the halving is a fear factor.
The problem with this fund is it has too much that will be uneconomical after halving. Should have just bought Bitcoin or microstrategy. I speak for myself - I bought this to reduce risk but missed out.
The 5 and the 13 ema crossed over at 4pm GMT so BTC will be marked down. How much for how long??? I disagree @bone the miners I think go up in advance of BTC. They spike up they spike down. These are volatile stocks. I hold some and trade some. Works for me ...mostly. The disconnect between BTC - DAGB - Miners -UK time and USA time Is good for trading this ETF.
3 days in a row now, sudden slump in SP just before USA opens. There appears to be a disconnect now between the price of BTC / miners and DAGB ....very odd. Even on days the USA miners are doing well and BTC strong, DAGB lags behind . I thought this EFT was a "tracker" of the miners??
Slightly disappointing price action here!
US miners again down so the inevitable on DAGB for now.
Many of the US miners were down overnight and it started just as the US opened at 2.30pm yesterday despite BTC going on a run . Miners tend to lag BTC highs historically. Frustrating…
I had exactly the same thought. This is a fund of Coinbase, Microstrategy and Mining stocks. It normally moves up at a multiple of BTC , yet Tuesday it inexplicably dumped at 15:00 and then again yesterday at 14:20. There is no reason for this other than someone dropping a big sell order in and generating a negative wave. Argo Blockchain did almost exactly the same thing . Both of these should be up 30% given the BTC move yesterday.
These are entities that literally make, store and make a profit out of BTC dealing, they should be soaring.
Just wondering why this is having an issue getting past 6.35 and then it slips back when bitcoin is exploding upwards. Although not directly related I thought with all the excitement of bitcoin currently that we would be much higher. Any opinions?
Https://heyapollo.com/bitcoin-etf
Coinbase hosting fees for majority of BTC ETF’s
Microstrategy biggest HODL outside of ETF’s bigger than all BTC miners and BLOCK combined.
FASB accounting standard BTC balance sheet fair value valuation requirement….
https://www.theupcoming.co.uk/2024/01/26/fasb-demands-companies-to-report-to-report-bitcoin-holdings-at-fair-market-value/
70% DAPP ( DAGB.L )
10% KR1.AQ ( London )
10% QBT.L
10% GST.L
ARB.L for the odd trade.
All within a tax free wrapper.
🚀🚀🚀😀. Pre-market is strong. Get some while the going is good.
It was a good day to buy a few more shares yesterday . Upwards and onwards .
🚀🚀Great day yesterday. Today looking not to shabby BTC @ $56k. Sold out of IREN just about got my money back now have some dry powder for today. (Q) $60k next?. That is the beauty of BTC if you believe in the story then absoulutely will reach that figure. When? who knows. Michael Saylor bought another 3000BTC @ $51k ish. Good enough for him good enough for me. GLA
$60k next?
All time high in next 8 weeks?
WOW.
Ha that would be my top 4 also, due to their chances of profitability post halving, there is so much to keep on top, e.g. with IREN taking some of their IPO stake out, and WULF high debt levels and dilution, and CLSK and BITF HODL. My life has been so much simpler since I stumbled across this ETF. The large institutions and Wall Street are surly tried to get us offbalance and will distribute to retail at the top. The tricky part for me is do we follow past cycles phase 3 of the bull which is easy to time and predict the price at the top, or melt up with Tech and then burn early. Japan, Europe tech making new all time highs. Trillions in money markets wondering what’s going to happen in March, when things get rolled over. Least we have liquidity here currently.
I agree about if you a conviction on a certain miner/s. I have Cleanspark, Iren, Bitfarms and Terawulf on an individual basis that I trade in and out of occasionally. I wish the fund had a higher weighting to CLSK. Just need BTC to go on another run up.
That makes more sense….HL holdings out of date.
But it does not match the list on Vanecks website :
https://www.vaneck.com/uk/en/investments/crypto-etf/overview/
which shows a different top 10 for 62% of the ETF:
COINBASE GLOBAL INC 7.84
BLOCK INC 7.74
MARATHON DIGITAL HOLDINGS INC 7.63
BITFARMS LTD/CANADA 6.35
MICROSTRATEGY INC 6.34
BITDEER TECHNOLOGIES GROUP 5.81
NORTHERN DATA AG 5.3
GALAXY DIGITAL HOLDINGS LTD 5.29
CLEANSPARK INC 4.92
TERAWULF INC 4.86
Glad the fund still owns Coinbase stock.
https://insidebitcoins.com/news/coinbase-urges-sec-to-approve-conversion-of-grayscale-ethereum-trust-into-spot-ether-etf
Amazing liquidity and some huge buys and sells recently.
Security Weight
APPLIED DIGITAL CORP 11.28%
MARATHON DIGITAL HLDGS INC 8.74%
BIT DIGITAL INC 6.96%
RIOT PLATFORMS INC 6.88%
MICROSTRATEGY INCORPORATED 6.37%
NORTHERN DATA AG 5.90%
TERAWULF INC 5.73%
CLEANSPARK INC 4.77%
HUT 8 MINING CORP 4.69%
BLOCK 4
I would never have thought to have sold COINBASE at the crescendo of euphoria around the BTC ETF’s and just at the start of their custody fees income. I also wouldn’t have had the confidence to buy Applied Digital at as low a valuation as when it was first listed.
Having done 300% twice in WULF twice in the last year it still pays to trade individual tickers whilst having a core holding in the ETF.
Hopefully BTC has a nice rise this week. I took an IREN trade Friday evening. Did anyone else get in on the drop?
Some nice BTC miner analysis for our Vaneck crypto ETF, hope the fund managers are watching:
https://www.youtube.com/live/XAaAj6oOo2c?si=ah5jcY6B1YL9w5Cp
Glad i got back in here last week after selling a few weeks ago , long term hold for me now .