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Market potential massive, Capxx very well position, R&D sorted, marketing ramping up, Manf plant bedded in ahead of exceptions imo, Int Property established and rightly well protected, Kongats alive and well. So why the shock that we get a good result and the share price goes down? Anyone who has been here for years and years will recognise the bizarre trend with this share which at times defies all logic (imo) - and i have not experienced it on any other share. Things will only get better and the share price will inevitably fully reflect the current and future value - just hope its sooner rather than later. I am as happy as i expected to be today ( in a kind depressed way )
I also liked this comment today from newtrader7:-
"I think this one will be a few years before the tech is common place, that's where we will see it shoot up.
The tier one auto accreditation is just the fact they have certain systems in place for quality & traceability. This sets them up nicely for the coming years.
I got in today after spending months looking at this company. The potential is there for some great growth"
For me, I love to learn from those working on the inside, so to speak. They are able to bring a different perspective to the chat board.
I liked this comment on here from newtrader7 a few days ago:-
Im working for a tier 1 electronics automotive supplier & we have future projects based on super caps etc.
Potential is there
So, let's remind ourselves of this statement from the Interim Results out today:-
"Furthermore, since the period end the order book has continued to grow and as at the end of January 2021 stood at over 100% higher than at the end of January 2020. Pleasingly, the growth in the order book is well spread, coming from all geographic regions and from different Internet of things (IoT) related market segments."
We're all invested here because we believe in the potential global growth of CAP-XX.
PJT12 - and so will we be delighted if we get to say I told you so in 12 months time. Fingers crossed:)
http://www.allenbycapital.com/research/research-cpx_44_3299704716.pdf
New broker note
Ah, the old NDA fallback :) I've not posted on the Avacta page by mistake, have I? Either was, I'll be delighted if you get to say "I told you so" come 12 months time.
Some good points and a few a bit off beam. Clearly order book levels are not an issue at present. They may be in a position of having to turn down business if it carries on. My take is that the coro has in fact put more of a dampener on the Malaysian supply position than from Sydney.
The company would love to talk about who the auto and phone companies are but cannot as they sign an NDA. That is at the behest of the big boys and I'm afraid that is that. Obviously it may leak out at some stage when the products get launched.
Good set of results I thought, surprised not to see a more positive response. Harsh of some IMO to focus on jam tomorrow and a lack of named contracts. We know from the past that some customers simply don’t want to be named, and this is protected by an NDA. We also know that the Murata production lines will produce significantly higher revenue over the coming months. There’s no need to sign another big contract to prove the company can produce revenue. So a lot is baked in, but I guess many won’t commit until they see it actually delivered.
A reminder from past news.
CAP-XX plans to maintain Murata's existing pricing on Murata's small, thin DMF, DMT and DMH supercapacitor product families:
DMT is a high-power, ultra-long life, high temperature supercapacitor suited for extreme applications such as solid-state drives and automotive applications. Due to its thinness, it can be assembled onto printed circuit boards (PCBs).
DMF is a general purpose, very high power, long life supercapacitor that has very low ESR and a wider operating voltage range. It is suitable for high brightness LED flash, high-power audio, smart meters and more. It, too, can be assembled onto PCBs.
DMH is an ultra-thin 0.4mm supercapacitor suited for smart phones, smart credit cards, wearables, 3V coin cell battery applications and other very thin IOT applications.
We know that Murata provided extra stock of all of these to CAP-XX before de-commissioning the production lines. It could be that CAP-XX have plenty of stock of the DMH and don't need to commission the DMH line, the fourth production line, until the latter half of 2021 with production expected to start in 2022.
Tradingdutchman - The fourth line is for the DMH so it's a different product.
Pjt12
So line 1, 2 and 3 are already commissioned :-)
About line 4 we do not know the costumer, could it be some automotive costumer who has a long release procedure ?
Are lines 1-3 final products or part of a chain of 1-4 then you are right
We simply do not know
PJT12 - it's Ioxus with a capital i and not Loxus with a capital l.
We've all made that mistake. Difficult to distinguish a capital i from a small l.
The fact that CAP-XX are pursuing Ioxus for the money suggests there may be a chance. However, I would think they have to warn shareholders there may be no chance.
My thinking on the DMH production line is that there are more orders for the other 3 production lines so there's no rush to commission the fourth production line. This seems prudent to me.
Too many investors are a bit like the bloke in the bookies who starts cursing the jockey (the MM's) off the back of a race in which their horse (company) lost. These results are okay but no better than that. By way of one example below, "The commissioning of the fourth production line, the DMH line, is still planned for the latter half of 2021, with production expected to start in early 2022". That, to me, is slow. They sued Loxus but are unlikely to get the money - was hidden down the page. I agree, the future can be bright but only if the company puts it's foot to the floor. Until the CEO stops waffling and we actually see the names of some of the these big names they are supposedly talking to signing-up then these are just words. Fingers crossed because the next year will tell us an awful lot. GLA.
"The commissioning of the fourth production line, the DMH line, is still planned for the latter half of 2021, with production expected to start in early 2022 as time and resources allow and subject to customer demand."
Any thoughts?
Honestly though it does beg the question, if new deals and contracts result in a drop in the sp, if company reports show increase in sales and profits and the sp drops, what does it take to actually move the sp up? If this was not an AIM share there would be a crackdown by the regulator as it is clear manipulation to let certain people in at lower prices.
A good report yet the price still slides. Are the MM's taking it down for less than altruistic reasons ?
The Board is confident that the commissioning of the Murata production lines will transform the Company's revenue position with a consequential benefit to cash flow and the cash position of the Company.
Patrick Elliott
Chairman
Given these are only the half year interim results, and its the first time I have seen the words 'Adjusted EBITDA profit', it seems to me that there is a chance the full year results might actually show a profit for the first time since I bought in September 2015.
Overall, I thought it was a positive set of interim results, with the negatives outweighed by the positives. The future looks promising to me.
R&D activities continue to progress and promising developments in new intellectual property were made to reduce supercapacitor production costs, increase cell voltage and improve product performance, using new materials.
New materials? What will they be?
The CEO needs to drop the spin as there is too much "jam tomorrow". I ONLY want to hear about concrete orders. The cash and cash generation positions have improved. The tax rebate should ensure they don't need to come to us with 'cap in hand'. The products have some serious potential but if they were doing THAT well then I'd have expected further orders to have been announced since the trading update. They sued Loxus but are unlikely to get the money.
So, I am underwater but do not think it would be wise to sell in the short term. I will take advantage of the inevitable future buying opportunities because one large contract (which I believe will happen on the strength of the products)will turn this around. The MM's are not playing games. Buyers will just need to see more evidence of confirmed orders.
Didn't want to preempt it earlier, but figured the MMS would push the SP down.
Like swimming in treacle.
Socially distanced of course:-(
A very promising easily overlooked nugget -
'Adjusted EBITDA PROFIT was A$0.32 million compared to the corresponding half-year loss of A$(0.44 million) - CPX moving into operational cashflow positive is an extremely good sign and considering these results are up to 31st December (pre any material new production being shipped)
Very solid. My advice would be to ignore the usual MM nonsense and take a longer term view. There may be still some 3p sellers around. In 6 months this could have doubled in value based on the present modest capitalisation. If this was US quoted it would be valued nearer $500m IMO on the basis of having world leading products on the cusp of mass adoption.